China is allowing foreign banks to control securities firms, but also seeking to create national champions by allowing its biggest commercial banks to offer investment banking services. This opens up China to the dangers of US-style financial crises.
Hong Kong’s protests, driven by a false sense of superiority to the mainland, are unlikely to provoke an overreaction from Chinese leaders. Beijing has no reason to fear them spreading, as its people have confidence in the government and optimism in the future.
China’s tech progress has already reached a turning point, its size grants it unusual abilities and its populace is conditioned to be entrepreneurial; the trade war won’t change any of this.
Taiwan’s policy of improving trade with its southern neighbours is a non-starter. The island has neither diplomatic ties with those countries nor regional expertise, and anyway, it needs the vast Chinese market to build successful brands.
Taiwan’s economy is now inextricably linked to China and the Taiwanese people appear unwilling to pay a high price for independence. In economic terms, China does not need Taiwan in the same way that Taiwan needs China, and Beijing can afford to play a waiting game.