With saving and investing, for most people, it’s best to stick to simple assets with easily understood characteristics. Bitcoin does not meet that test and there is also a regulatory risk.
When geopolitical tensions spill over into violence, productivity plummets and wealth is destroyed. Nationalism and negative views of China are rising worldwide, and any shift from the status quo could destroy productivity for decades to come.
Infrastructure spending can create jobs that will lift salaries and not require a college education, so the Biden administration should be pushing for much larger commitments than are on offer right now.
Policymakers need to bring the Balkanised information process to heel and quietly redistribute wealth. Telltale market signs include Facebook stock underperforming and the Fed buying long bonds.
While the risk of an institutional breakdown in the US has diminished, China’s opening of its capital markets and the promise of better relations with the US bodes well for its stocks.
For investors, deflation means that currently popular assets, such as tech stocks, could underperform cash and long-maturity Treasuries, a lesson Japanese investors have had to learn.