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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
Traders are seen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the US on May 13. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | No, stock markets are not a barometer of the world’s economic health

Markets have largely returned to calm after the US-China trade truce but all is not as it seems.

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | Investor relief at US-China trade war truce smacks of complacency

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | World will need to borrow its way out of Trump’s tariff mess

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Taiwan

Macroscope | There’s more to Taiwan’s currency shock than meets the eye

The surge in the New Taiwan dollar has exposed how trade policy, capital flows, geopolitics and sovereign risk have become closely intertwined.

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A bank employee poses with US$100 notes in Taipei on May 6. The US dollar rose in Asia on May 6, fuelled by hopes for trade deals to avert US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Photo: AFP
United States

Macroscope | Trump’s tariffs are waking Asia up from the dream of export-led growth

Asian economies responded to Western exhortations to pursue export-led growth. The resulting ‘economic miracle’ now looks like a mistake.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | A world economy on the brink could use some win-win cooperation

With a global financial crisis looming, governments are left with few options beyond bracing for what’s to come and working together.

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United States

Macroscope | IMF’s tariff warnings may be too little, too late

The Trump administration has brought the world to the brink of a systemic financial and economic crisis.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech ahead of next week’s World Bank Group and IMF 2025 spring meetings, at the IMF headquarters in Washington on April 17. Photo: EPA-EFE
United States

Macroscope | Trump is crashing the global system that crowned the dollar king

Tariff shock, loss of confidence in the dollar, stock market trauma and a widespread feeling of affront will only quicken de-dollarisation.

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | Trump’s economic ignorance and unpredictability prove a potent mix

Trump’s sudden reversal on some tariffs shows the stability of the global economy is at the mercy of one reckless, unreliable president.

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Diplomacy

Macroscope | Trump could end up making Asia, not America, great again

The US’ presence in Asia is entrenched but the prospect of a Europe-East Asia economic alliance is one card both regions could play.

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European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic meets Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng in Beijing, China, on March 27. Photo: EPA-EFE/Xinhua
China economy

Macroscope | 3 reasons investors are falling in love with Chinese stocks again

Much has to go right for Chinese stocks to continue to outperform, but there is great potential if investor sentiment continues to thaw.

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An electronic board shows stock indexes at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai on April 2. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | How Trump’s reckless policies could trigger a financial crisis

The institutional and legal underpinnings of the US system on which investors have long relied are under sustained assault from the Trump administration.

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United States

Macroscope | Why Europe and China are no safe havens from Trump’s chaos

Just because the US is no longer the darling of markets does not mean the likes of Europe or China are safe bets.

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Defence

Macroscope | How will nations pay for a Trump-induced rush to arms?

Those aiming to raise defence spending should ask where the money will come from and remember needs like infrastructure and climate change.

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An activist holds a mock up of a Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter plan during a protest in front of the Reichstag building that houses the Bundestag in Berlin in 2022. Photo: AFP
US-China trade war

Macroscope | Trump’s trade war is giving Europe and China the nudge they need

While the tide has not fully turned in Europe and China’s favour, Trump’s recklessness is providing impetus for badly needed policy shifts.

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Members of the military honour guard march, on the day of a meeting between German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius in Berlin, Germany, on February 10. Photo: Reuters
Donald Trump

Macroscope | What could force Trump to back down? Markets, if they wake up

Higher inflation, a sharp slowdown or both point to a much bleaker outlook for the US than markets anticipated when Trump won the election.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Are Europe and China stocks the better bet under ‘America first’?

As US stagflation fears undermine market confidence, Germany’s election outcome and China’s DeepSeek moment are shifting global expectations.

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Infrastructure

Macroscope | How can cash-strapped states pay for expensive infrastructure?

Many governments have difficulty funding basic needs while meeting global challenges like climate change. Meanwhile, businesses freeload.

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Men working on the Shiziyang grand bridge, part of the Shiziyang Channel mega-project to boost economic development around the Pearl River, in Guangdong, China on February. 7. Unlike many other governments, China’s has shown success in providing basic infrastructure across the nation. Photo: Xinhua
US-China trade war

Macroscope | How Trump’s new trade war could hurt US and fix what ails China

Trump’s tariffs will endanger US growth while providing Chinese authorities a chance to make a badly needed pivot towards consumption.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s tariff Titanic is sailing merrily towards disaster

As US tariffs undermine other countries’ exports, their ability to import and meet the demands of supply chains will start a chain reaction.

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United States

Macroscope | How Trump is setting US reputation and creditworthiness alight

Many investors continue to downplay or rationalise the damage Trump’s trade policy does, but there are signs the honeymoon might soon end.

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US President Donald Trump holds a marker as he signs an executive order to create a US sovereign wealth fund, in the Oval Office of the White House on February 3, in Washington, DC. As of February 5, Trump has issued 80 executive actions, including executive orders, proclamations and memos, according to the CNN. Photo: AFP
Trade

Macroscope | Tariff wars show just how badly we need global trade reform

While some want a return to trade norms, not many are willing to consider if yesterday’s liberalisation craze was ever sustainable.

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Workers leave a garment factory for lunch in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on September 21, 2022. Free trade has been a mixed economic blessing for countries in the developing world, not least those in Asia. Photo: Xinhua
US-China relations

Macroscope | Why DeepSeek disruption is the China risk Wall Street can’t ignore

A global stock market this dependent on a few huge companies in a sector whose valuations are under high scrutiny is a recipe for volatility.

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Investing

Macroscope | How Western investors’ tech obsession is hurting emerging markets

Investors must demand institutions direct their savings into developing or emerging markets where they can benefit global economic welfare.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s glaring policy contradictions are both a blessing and a curse

Tensions within Trump’s economic policies could lead to some being scrapped, but they could also be a further source of chaos.

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Paraphernalia supporting President Donald Trump is displayed at a post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on January 21, 2025. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Why bond markets refuse to hop aboard the Trump train

A sharp sell-off in bond markets despite the Fed’s easing cycle shows investors are worried about the uncertainty around Trump’s second term.

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US president-elect Donald Trump speaks at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, on December 16, 2024. Photo: Getty Images
China economy

Macroscope | China needs urgent action to spark consumption and avoid Japan’s fate

Structural reform is never easy, but for China even a messy pivot to consumption is better than staying cautious and not pivoting at all.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Rising ‘United States of Eurasia’ will need a development bank to support it

From Eurasia’s vast potential to growing new development banks, emerging market economies are carrying more weight in a global economy.

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