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Richard Heydarian
Richard Javad Heydarian is an Asia-based academic, currently a Professorial Chairholder in Geopolitics at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines. He is also author of, among others, “The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China and the New Struggle for Global Mastery”.
Richard Javad Heydarian is an Asia-based academic, currently a Professorial Chairholder in Geopolitics at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines. He is also author of, among others, “The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China and the New Struggle for Global Mastery”.
Languages Spoken:
English
Trump’s actions signal an openness to G2, give China leverage with US allies and open the door for other powers to use coercive force.
Middle powers fear a return to ‘rules of the jungle’ geopolitics as rival powers carve out spheres of influence.
Keeping US allies onside means rolling back tariffs and coming up with a long-term strategy, both of which are counter to Trump’s strengths.
Uncertainty surrounds the ‘Squad’, including the US’ ability to support another grouping and Trump’s push for a grand bargain with China.
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‘Made in China 2025’ has helped Beijing increase its level of self-reliance and severely dented the global appeal of free-market economics.
As Washington pushes New Delhi closer to Beijing, both Asian powers must exercise strategic patience for an effective detente.
By reducing dependence on the US and enhancing ties among each other, like-minded middle powers are better able to set their own terms.
The world is desperately seeking leadership to uphold a rules-based order. China is well equipped to provide an alternative to the US.
Marcos’ goal of a balanced foreign policy is at odds with efforts to further intertwine the US and the Philippines in the security sphere.
For all his bluster, he has failed to broker peace in Ukraine even as Israeli strikes dashed any chance of a nuclear deal with Iran.
Even if there is a clear motivation in Trump’s deglobalisation push, poor tactical execution can ruin even the soundest strategic objectives.
Despite diplomatic and ideological differences, the EU and Southeast Asia’s trade and defence needs are bringing the two sides together.
China’s message of stable cooperation is resonating as Trump accelerates the birth of a post-US world with rising powers independent of US whims.
The Trump administration has offered reassurances to Manila, but mixed signals and global tariffs mean there are still reasons to be wary.
The second Trump administration’s actions show Manila the urgent need to be more self-reliant and seek other potential defence partners.
Collective bargaining may be the only defence against his flirtation with rival superpowers, protectionist policies and transactionalist diplomacy.
If Washington uses Manila as a pawn in a ‘grand bargain’, Marcos should seek his own strategic deals with US rivals like China.
Losing the power balance in a potentially rancorous cabinet or failing to win over Asia’s rising non-aligned powers would trip up his plans.
The removal of the Dutertes from the security council is a calculated move by Marcos Jnr to prevent the family, perceived as pro-China proxies, from exerting influence.
US dominance is pervasive but not infallible, and a divided Brics can still find common ground in the pursuit of a multipolar global order.
As Russia seeks Global South partners and the war in Ukraine drags on, Southeast Asian states are rekindling ties with the Kremlin.
Nothing less than the country’s strategic autonomy as a sovereign nation is at stake as the Marcos administration faces Trump 2.0.
Despite Trump positioning himself as a peacemaker, his foreign policy agenda is likely to push allies in Asia further away.
The Biden administration’s repeated missteps have dealt a big blow to US standing in the region and given Beijing an opportunity to exercise its global influence.
Southeast Asian nations may take different tacks on China, but they share an interest in cooperating to defend their core interests.
The grouping’s members are pulling in different directions, and a second term for Donald Trump might upend America’s values-based global strategy.
As tensions with China escalate, Philippine strategists are divided on how to protect the Southeast Asian nation’s maritime security.
Domestic issues tend to top Philippine voters’ concerns, but recent events could make Ferdinand Marcos’ foreign policy a decisive factor.
Instead of aligning with one superpower against another, the Philippines is bent on enhancing its own strategic agency in world affairs.
