While Beijing choosing to test an incoming Biden administration would be bad, a superficial peace offering would be almost as harmful. Patience on China’s part will let Biden focus on handling the pandemic and restarting the US economy.
A recent survey finds general agreement in the US and among its allies on the perception of a China threat. But while sanctions are necessary, there’s also a lack of enthusiasm for comprehensive decoupling and a preference for a multilateral approach.
While the international community cannot shape the ultimate outcome, it can still create an atmosphere that leads Beijing to take a more cautious approach in implementing the national security law.
techno-nationalism is a fool’s errand and instead of doubling down on self-reliance, China should launch a new great leap of reforms to become a true market economy, given that the sectors which are most open to competition have performed best.
The Trump administration seems to be following a ‘mixed message’ strategy and gearing up for a long-haul battle with China that is not restricted to trade.
The US administration has underestimated its opposition and the domestic impact of a trade war.