Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger was known for working behind the scenes in the interest of peace. High-level talks in Vienna, backchannel meetings in China and nuanced, restrained actions around Taiwan suggest greater understanding between Washington and Beijing is not impossible.

Biden’s administration is talking up ‘a foreign policy for the middle class’, while pushing alliance mechanisms against China and Russia. As a result, Beijing seems to have given up on engaging with Washington, and is focusing on Europe. China and the US can’t go on like this, though.

As Brazil and others take steps towards reducing their dollar reliance, Macron’s controversial remarks about Europe staking its own position on Taiwan, independent of the US, may herald a redrawing of the geopolitical fault lines – if the Ukraine war drags on.

Washington’s policy shift on China, instigated by Trump, has only grown more pronounced under Biden, who has taken pains to shore up US alliances. With the US also threatening Beijing’s red line on Taiwan, retaliation is all but inevitable.

Post-Brexit Britain finds itself in dire economic straits, with crushed delusions of global glory and disappointed hopes of US support. Yet if it seizes this moment to rejoin the EU, it may just find itself welcomed back with open arms.

The incident is just one recent example of Beijing testing Washington’s ‘guardrails’, with Xi also reportedly planning a trip to Moscow. After a number of affronts by the US, including a new chip embargo and a deal with the Philippines to access military bases near Taiwan, China is showing it is capable of turning tough.

Taking a leaf out of Nixon’s book, Biden could drive a wedge between the US’ rivals using conciliation – only this time, with Russia, not China. The problem is that such an approach risks creating an integrated Europe, which may then seek autonomy from the US.

The recent easing of Sino-US tensions may help Washington consolidate its grip on allies as it seeks to carve out a bipolar world order. But, unlike in the Cold War, lesser powers in Europe and Russia are determined to remain at the table, not on the menu.

Even as they work to avert a head-on collision, neither Washington nor Beijing has any illusion about where the other stands. Biden and his administration seem determined to fight it out with China in this ‘decisive decade’ and get their allies onside.

If we are in a second cold war, as some have suggested, Europe could be the first casualty, just as it was during the first Cold War. Europe is in danger of losing its global political identity, becoming even more dependent on the US and risking a slide into untold levels of poverty.

Washington’s plan to upgrade ties with Taiwan, much like Nancy Pelosi’s trip to the island, makes it clear there will be no letup on China. While Beijing is likely to bide its time and continue using salami slicing tactics, if the US tries to ‘Ukrainise’ Taiwan, Washington cannot expect to sit out the ensuing war.

The US president has shown a worrying lack of leadership on scrapping tariffs on China, securing an increase in oil output and Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. On his watch, the danger of war between the US and China looms much larger.

Post-Abe Japan has moved a step closer to amending its pacifist constitution and Europe is straining to deal with the economic pain from the war in Ukraine. These events shaking up the United States’ key allies are likely to cast a long shadow over Washington’s global alliance system.

US President Joe Biden has said he is considering whether to drop tariffs on China and plans to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping. While Biden might have a deal to offer Beijing, unless the US is willing to stop hollowing out its ‘one-China’ commitment, he may not make much headway.

Kissinger opened the door to relations with China with his 1971 trip to Beijing and bagged the secretary of state job two years later. Today, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken appears to have alienated China, while National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan seems to be keeping lines of communication open.

Europe was quick to close ranks with the US over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it is a stance it can ill-afford to keep up. By instead throwing its support behind the US’ power struggle with China, Europe may be looking for a chance to repair its own relationship with Russia.

As talk in Washington increasingly links Ukraine with Taiwan, a sense of hubris is returning. The US now appears confident of not being sucked into a war if China were to seek to reunify Taiwan by force and would look to use devastating sanctions while assisting Taiwan from afar.

Right when diplomacy is needed more than ever, top diplomatic figures in the US and China are resorting to open hostility. The crisis in Ukraine should serve as a warning to both powers to set aside ideological differences for the sake of world peace.

The US is convinced that Russia will be politically and economically impotent, European nations will return to their place under America’s wing, and the threat of sanctions will keep China in line. But what if both Russia and China call the US’ bluff?

US pressure on European countries to derail the bloc’s investment deal with China and cut Russia out of Europe, so as to maintain its own sphere of influence, will not succeed in a changing world order.

Under a grand interim arrangement, the US dollar could be anchored to China’s production prowess and growth for, say, 10 years. That would buy time for the US to reinvigorate itself and allow China to show it doesn’t wish to challenge the international order.

The Biden administration is raising the spectre of conflict over Taiwan when it should be solving domestic problems. While American exceptionalism has had a good run, the US needs to wake up to the fact it may no longer be so special.

America’s attempt to grapple with its illegal immigration problem may be less high-profile than Biden’s Europe tour, but it points to a better strategy for dealing with a rising China: focus on building decent lives for its people and others, as China has.

War scenarios are building around Taiwan as anxieties form around a China-Russia-Iran alliance. But what if China is looking to pin down the US in the east while European integration advances to where the US is no longer needed as stabiliser and arbitrator?

American allies’ eagerness to cooperate with China shows the US would be foolish to assume blind obedience in case of conflict. In time, the US will understand that greater consensus and cooperation with China and Russia is in its best interest.

The post-Brexit calculation was that even if Britain struggled on its own, it would still be better than life in the EU. Amid steady EU leadership and a rise in trade deals without the UK in them, though, that does not seem to be the case.

Between Republican defiance, class conflict and America’s fading international sway, the US president will have to walk a fine line to do what America needs – reduce its international commitments to put its house in order first.

Biden has many balls to keep in the air – Covid-19, the economy, the 2022 midterm congressional elections, his 2024 re-election – and it will be all too easy to fail. In that case, Beijing would be a convenient scapegoat for Washington.