Outside In | Fog of uncertainty descends on Hong Kong in wake of bookseller ‘mess’
Beijing’s commitment to respecting the Sino-British Joint Declaration and Basic Law could not be faulted - until the five HK booksellers went missing
Over the past 20 years, I have given over 600 presentations to business groups in Hong Kong and around the world on Hong Kong’s future after 1997. Both in the deeply paranoid run-up to 1997, and the couple of years after, that involved staring in the eye deeply sceptical audiences and assuring them unblinkingly that Hong Kong was going to be OK.
Many of these groups were concerned about the economy, and others about democracy and human rights. But all were concerned about the rule of law, and whether the common law principles that underpinned business confidence in Hong Kong would be respected by Hong Kong’s new sovereigns in Beijing.
In absolutely every briefing, I have been able to say with confidence that Beijing’s track record in respecting the internationally binding undertakings in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, and the Basic Law undertakings on Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong, has been unblemished. I have been able to recall the ridiculous CNBC 1997 handover news footage portraying Chinese troops flowing over the border into the Tamar garrison, and say with confidence that this said more about the paranoid prejudices of some in the international media than it did about the reality of China’s intentions towards Hong Kong.
That was until now.
Beijing’s actions in Hong Kong have until now been impeccably correct
Unhappily, the antics surrounding Lee Bo and his four publishing colleagues between October last year and their “sort of” release over the past week, have cast a serious cloud over the confidence and certainties held until now. The confidence of international businesses active across Hong Kong’s many business chambers has been shaken.
Maybe China’s various responsible agencies feel pleased with themselves for keeping the lid on what could have become an explosive international human rights controversy. But they should be in no doubt that the events of the past five months have seriously rattled business confidence.
