Hong Kong’s lived-in home prices will drop 5 per cent in 2022 as people, capital head for the exit, UBS says

Name: Hong Kong has until 2049 to fix its housing crisis, but is it possible?
Uploaded: 2022-01-10T23:30:21.000Z
Duration: 10 min 8 s
Description: Hong Kong has until 2049 to fix its housing crisis, but is it possible?

UBS is the second investment bank to forecast a decrease in the world’s most expensive property market, after Morgan Stanley

An emigration wave and an exit of capital because of tightened mainland regulations will contribute to the drop, says the Swiss bank

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A man looks at residential property advertisements displayed in the window of an estate agency in North Point. Photo: Bloomberg

Xinlu Liang

Published: 7:30am, 11 Jan 2022Updated: 7:36am, 11 Jan 2022

UBS predicts a 5 per cent drop in Hong Kong’s lived-in home prices, becoming the second investment bank to forecast a decrease in the world’s most expensive property market after Morgan Stanley.

A mass emigration wave, the slowdown in mainland China’s economic growth, an exit of capital because of tightened mainland regulations and an imminent interest rate rise in the United States will all contribute to the drop, said John Lam, head of the China and Hong Kong property team at UBS Research.

“We hold a prudent view on the prospects for Hong Kong’s property market,” Lam said in a speech as the 22nd annual UBS Greater China Conference kicked off in Hong Kong on Monday. “The lived-in home prices will drop 5 per cent this year.”

Hong Kong is suffering an alarming population drop – nearly 90,000 citizens left in the year to August 2021, according to the latest data from the Census and Statistics Department.

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Hong Kong has until 2049 to fix its housing crisis, but is it possible?

Many left in the wake of the national security law imposed by Beijing, fearing mainland China’s tightening grip was eroding some of the city’s freedoms.