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Inside Out & Outside In
Opinion
David Dodwell

Outside In | Migrants mean more than birth rates in meeting Hong Kong’s labour shortage, which is why we must act now

  • Hong Kong has traditionally depended on migrant labourers to meet its domestic demand. The problem is that neighbouring countries are set for similar shortages, thus thinning the pool

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A new government workforce report projects that Hong Kong could be short up to a quarter of a million workers by 2027 in a worst-case scenario. Photo: Fung Chang
So Hong Kong’s 2027 manpower projections predict significant labour shortages over the decade ahead. The South China Morning Post’s editorial on Thursday this week rightly concludes that “Importation of labour cannot be ruled out if jobs shortfall persists”. My own response? I don’t know whether to celebrate or weep.
Over three years ago, quoting the Hong Kong Institute of Human Resources Management, I reported that “90 per cent of surveyed companies find it quite difficult or extremely difficult to find the right talent to fill vacancies”. The government’s own director of audit reported in 2014 that labour shortages “are a major problem facing many care homes in the private sector”, with 1,000 vacancies among 8,100 non-professional frontline care work positions in care homes.

One puzzles at how long it takes for our senior government officials to acknowledge the obvious: skills shortages are acute and widespread, and our neglect of the problem has put the future prosperity of our economy in jeopardy.

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For the record, the projection says in a base-case scenario, manpower supply in 2027 will sit at 3.57 million while manpower requirements will sit at 3.74 million. That makes a shortfall of about 170,000 jobs – about 4.5 per cent of the workforce. The number could go up to 250,000 in a worst-case scenario. The Post editorial correctly stated that the projections are “too disturbing to be ignored”. But the blunt reality is that they have been ignored already for many years, with no clear evidence of interest in or intent to tackle the problem.

Let me quibble a bit more before I move on: I have always moaned to the government that their methodology for calculating population growth and labour market needs is embarrassing. In short, it builds its projections around two factors: demographic change (ageing); and sharply declining fertility rates.
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Legal immigrants from China arrive at the Kowloon Railway Station in 1978. Influxes of migrants from the mainland have been essential in helping Hong Kong grow at several junctures in its history. Photo: SCMP
Legal immigrants from China arrive at the Kowloon Railway Station in 1978. Influxes of migrants from the mainland have been essential in helping Hong Kong grow at several junctures in its history. Photo: SCMP
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