Opinion | Compromise by CY Leung could avert Occupy Central threat

The proposed Occupy Central demonstration is over a year away and many things are scheduled to happen before it kicks off. But already it constitutes a clear and present danger both for Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and the pan-democrats, although the latter seem not to recognise the fact yet.

First a quick recap. Professor Benny Tai Yiu-ting, of the University of Hong Kong, has called for 10,000 people to blockade Central District in July next year to put pressure on the administration - and, by extension, Beijing - to move ahead with universal suffrage. The constituent parties of the pan-democratic movement are one by one coming out in support of the idea.

First to face the music will be the chief executive. Whether he reverts to the traditional practice of delivering the policy address in October this year or stays with the January date to be closer to the 2014 budget, he will have to give an outline of his thinking on reform of the system for electing the Legislative Council in 2016.

Such a timetable will allow for a thorough public debate in 2014, and for the necessary legislation to be enacted in 2015.

Partly overlapping with this process will be a need for the government to also set out its thinking - no later than 2015 - on how to elect the chief executive by universal suffrage in 2017. Those arrangements will also have to be approved by Legco as presently constituted.

It would be expecting too much to ask the newly elected legislature in 2016 to rush through the necessary amendments in the first few weeks of its term.

In his election manifesto, Leung promised to reform the functional constituency election arrangements for 2016. That is certainly a necessary step but, by itself, it is insufficient. There must also be a modest but decisive shift in the balance between directly elected seats and functional constituencies, in favour of the former.