Pan-democrats should engage with Beijing to stay relevant
Regina Ip says party members who fully participated in the discussions with Beijing officials in Shanghai understand that they can only reach their goals by negotiating
Hong Kong's long march to democracy reached an important milestone during the weekend of April 12 when 52 legislators, including 10 from the pan-democratic camp, went to Shanghai for a "study trip", the highlight of which was a widely anticipated meeting between Beijing officials and the pan-democrats, hopefully the first step that would lead to a deal on the method for electing the chief executive in 2017.
Such ice-breaking meetings have become indispensable in the process that would hopefully move Hong Kong towards election by universal suffrage. As a special administrative region of China, Hong Kong is allowed to choose its chief executive by universal suffrage, but its Basic Law decrees that any revision to its existing arrangements for electing the chief executive by a 1,200-strong committee can only be made subject to endorsement by the legislature by a two-thirds majority, the consent of the chief executive and approval by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China.
A two-thirds majority in the Legislative Council means the government's constitutional reform package needs 47 votes to pass. As Legco president Jasper Tsang Yok-sing has pledged not to vote on any motions to preserve his "political neutrality", the government needs five votes from the pan-democrat camp for its motions to win Legco's endorsement. Thus, although the pan-democrats might appear to be pitched against Beijing as David was against Goliath, they hold a strong, almost decisive, hand in the negotiations.
In a worst-case scenario, both Beijing and the pan-democrats could stand pat, each holding unshakably to their doctrinaire positions, thus torpedoing Hong Kong people's chance to elect their chief by universal suffrage in 2017.
How the two sides, apparently continents apart, could be brought to a mutually acceptable agreement would be an exercise that would test each side's ability to take control of the environment. In other words, a test of not just the strength but also the wit and strategy adopted by both.
In the past year, various factions within the pan-democrat camp have tried, with little success, different tactics, including a continuing threat to "Occupy Central" to coerce Beijing into yielding; garnering international opinion expressed by renowned scholars as a proxy for foreign state intervention; plans to conduct electronic polls and even a hunger strike that ended with a whimper.