Sino-US struggle for pre-eminence overshadows South China Sea disputes

In much of Southeast Asia, a reference to a shadow play in the context of politics means the "behind the scenes" actors and plot. This double meaning aptly applies to the current situation in the South China Sea. Indeed, the US and China are the raksasa (monsters that can be good or evil) and their struggle for pre-eminence in Southeast Asia is the backdrop to the more obvious political manoeuvring by and within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Although many observers know this "truth", in the run-up to the Asean Regional Forum scheduled for this weekend in Myanmar, hope for an interim modus operandi in the South China Sea is again on the rise.

But hopes for Asean unity on such issues - let alone agreement and compliance by China - are misplaced. The Asean claimants - Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam - cannot even settle their own disputes, some of which involve both conflicting sovereignty and maritime jurisdictional claims like that between Malaysia and the Philippines over Sabah. These differences are every bit as serious as the Vietnam-China sovereignty and jurisdictional disputes centred on the Paracels. They just haven't been in the spotlight.

Although Indonesia has taken a lead role in trying to mediate between China and Asean, it is now saddled with the uncertain aftermath of a bitterly contested presidential election. Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa's Herculean efforts to broker a compromise have not been successful - in part because China does not perceive Indonesia as neutral. The two may have overlapping maritime claims east of the Natunas and Indonesia has publicly opposed China's nine-dash line claim. It is not even clear that Natalegawa will continue as foreign minister.

Thailand is supposed to be the Asean co-ordinator for Asean-China relations but it has been crippled by a coup and the uncertainty surrounding its domestic political structure.

Meanwhile, the US is trying to "ride to the rescue on its white horse". Michael Fuchs, US deputy assistant secretary of state for strategy and multilateral affairs, has proposed a freeze on "activities which escalate tension". This appears to be an attempt to get Asean and China to define what is meant by their call for "self-restraint" in the 2002 Asean-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. The US is expected to push the idea at the Asean Regional Forum.

Fuchs said that "alterations that fundamentally change the nature or capabilities of the present could fall under the freeze, whereas routine maintenance operations would be permissible". He proposed ceasing establishment of new outposts and any construction that would fundamentally change existing outposts. Fuchs also suggested that "one claimant should not stop another from continuing long-standing economic activities in disputed areas". Of course this would introduce a whole new set of terms to be debated and interpreted. But that is just a superficial problem.