The US has diverted the narrative from the real issues and hyped China’s installations in the area as a symbol of its aggression against rival claimants. The situation will only get worse before it gets better, and the US will eventually have to share power with China.

US sorties and freedom of navigation operations have risen substantially in the first quarter. The reasons range from an overall deterioration in US-China relations to the US’ need to show allies that its capabilities have not weakened despite the pandemic.

China has not stopped its activities in its claimed areas of the South China Sea but neither have other claimants – and nor has the US, which continues its provocative freedom of navigation operations. Singling out China merely promotes US propaganda.

Rampant illegal fishing – by flagged vessels from many nations, not just China – has made the problem more complex. Data on arrests over illegal fishing show China is far from being the worst aggressor, and painting it as such only further muddies the water.

The US and Vietnam are strange bedfellows, with no common culture, ideology, political system or world view, united for now by the ‘China threat’. But with US freedom of navigation operations challenging Vietnam’s claims along with China’s, and no deep trust, how long can the alliance last?

Rodrigo Duterte’s move to distance the Philippines from its former colonial ruler was long in coming. Generations of US foreign-policymakers have advanced US interests as if they were the same as Philippine interests – which they are not.

Many of China’s claims to the South China Sea are defensible, but its spokespersons have been too vague in stating and defending them. Beijing must learn to win by persuasion, and refine its claims so they are compatible with the international order.

Egged on by the US, Japan has increased its military presence in the region, but it risks awakening regional discomfort barely buried after WWII and could find itself out of its depth if the US and China start secretly preparing for conflict.

At the latest Asean summit in Thailand, the US failed to rally support for its criticism of China’s aggression in the South China Sea. Its sending of a lower-level delegation also reinforced suspicions of unreliable US commitment.

No one should expect the sovereignty disputes over rocks and reefs to be resolved any time soon. But claimants including China and the Philippines may reach compromises and agree to joint development deals.

The US accuses China of militarising the South China Sea, but to Beijing, it is the Pentagon that has aggressively projected power in the region. The US also has a troubling policy of taking pre-emptive action against perceived threats.

Several factors complicate the UK seizure of the Iranian ship. Did the UK have the right to impose EU sanctions on an Iranian vessel, or did it break UN laws? Other countries are waiting to see how the existing global order will be upheld.

Amid growing Sino-US rivalry, Southeast Asian countries are stuck in the middle, enjoying Chinese economic aid and tech but also US military support. If America keeps making demands on them, it may simplify their choice when push comes to shove.

The national security adviser undermined diplomatic attempts with North Korea, supported regime change in Venezuela and appears to be goading Iran in the Persian Gulf. Bolton’s greatest danger is that he could upset the existing international order.

Two Chinese jets crossed into Taiwan’s airspace last month as a warning aimed at the US, ratcheting up tension over a US-China dispute that boils down to their different interpretations of the ‘right of transit passage’ clause in the Law of the Sea.

Southeast Asian nations, because of their colonial experience, are sensitive to real or imagined slights. Although China is different from their former colonial masters, it must tread carefully in expanding its influence in the region.

The US national security adviser, known for his disdain for global treaties, is renewing a US effort to interdict ships suspected of carrying banned cargo to and from North Korea and violating UN sanctions. The trouble is, this could legitimately be seen as an act of war.

Recent confrontational remarks by Chinese military officers on the US are a response to American provocation in the form of increased freedom of navigation operations, new alliances such as the Quad and anti-China rhetoric in US foreign policy circles.

Instead of seeking to contain China through a strategy of ‘competitive coexistence’, the US must accept China’s growing influence and realistically negotiate the transition to a new order in which power is shared.

A possible review of the Philippines’ Mutual Defence Treaty with the US has alarmed US-Asia policy experts, but the rhetoric continues to centre on American interests.

Malaysia’s territorial disputes with Singapore reflect the countries’ bitter past. But, in the long term, a trade-off is possible: one side gets to maintain its maritime claim, and the other gets to manage the airspace.

Britain’s ambition to project post-Brexit global influence and join the US in containing China may have consequences London isn’t prepared for.

The new US defence secretary will have to understand, as James Mattis did, the balance required for the US to stay in the Indo-Pacific as a leading strategic power but also prevent conflict with China.

With Beijing and Washington stepping up their struggle for influence in the region, a bitter debate on how Manila should respond is polarising the political classes and stirring up old rivalries.

Southeast Asian nations are open to better ties with China and do not necessarily see US freedom of navigation operations as being in their interests. By proposing joint development or mutual use of disputed areas and capitalising on its economic power, China could lure Southeast Asia away from the US.

A recent US-China security dialogue failed to produce any tension-defusing agreement. The two sides agreed that the talks had been “candid”, but the US continued to misconstrue Xi Jinping’s remarks on militarisation in the South China Sea.

Mark J. Valencia says amid escalating tensions between the US and China, the meeting between the two defence chiefs could establish ground rules for what may prove to be a dangerous period for US-China relations ahead.