Mark J. Valencia

Dr Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst, political commentator and consultant focused on Asia. He is the author or editor of some 15 books and more than 100 peer-reviewed journal articles. Currently he is adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies.

A causeway links Singapore to Malaysia’s southern state of Johor. The countries are in dispute over the limits of a port in Johor and airspace over a part of Johor. Photo: AFP

Opinion

Solution is possible for Singapore-Malaysia territorial disputes

19 Jan 2019 - 11:06am 5

A new British naval base in Southeast Asia could stoke resentment, split Asean and put the UK in China’s cross hairs

Opinion

Three reasons a new British naval base in Southeast Asia could backfire

11 Jan 2019 - 7:10pm 38

Illustration: Timothy Mcevenue. See: www.timothymcevenue.net

Opinion

In a post-Mattis South China Sea, a few reminders for the next US defence chief

2 Jan 2019 - 2:14am 11

Visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping signs the guest book as Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter Sarah look on at the Malacanang Presidential Palace in Manila on November 20. Philippine domestic politics is increasingly racked by a polarising debate over its policy towards China, particularly its claims in the South China Sea. Photo: AFP

Opinion

Should the Philippines fear a US-China proxy conflict?

21 Dec 2018 - 11:41am 3

Sailors line up for the first China-Asean naval exercises in Zhanjiang, Guangdong province, on Monday October 22. The drills were seen as a demonstration of Southeast Asian nations’ desire for improved ties with China. Photo: Weibo

Opinion

How China could edge the US out of the South China Sea

28 Nov 2018 - 8:35pm 31

Illustration: Craig Stephens

Opinion

Why the latest US-China security dialogue was a failure

14 Nov 2018 - 6:26am 14

US Defence Secretary James Mattis and China’s Defence Minister Wei Fenghe greet each other ahead of talks in Singapore on October 18. Photo: Reuters

United States

What China’s defence minister will be looking for in Washington

1 Nov 2018 - 3:30am 4

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands before their bilateral meeting in Singapore on August 3. Photo: Reuters

United States

China, the US and the threat of misjudgment in the South China Sea

26 Sep 2018 - 6:19am 10

Chinese J-15 fighter jets on the deck of the Liaoning aircraft carrier during a military drill in the Yellow Sea in 2016.. Photo: AFP

United States

A naval code of conduct won’t make the South China Sea safe

6 Sep 2018 - 9:28pm 5

Canadian troops move towards amphibious assault vehicles during the biennial Rim of the Pacific exercise at the Red Beach Training Area, Camp Pendelton, California, on June 27. Photo: Reuters

United States

Can war games exercise help the US woo Asean away from China?

12 Jul 2018 - 7:54pm 1

Illustration: Craig Stephens

United States

Asean members waver over US confrontation in South China Sea

2 Jul 2018 - 1:00am 1

Illustration: Craig Stephens

United States

US and China battle for control of ‘global order’ in South China Sea

22 Jun 2018 - 2:00am 35

What if the US escalates confrontation and China does not bend or back off? Illustration: Craig Stephens

United States

South China Sea: what does US hope to gain by antagonising China?

7 Jun 2018 - 1:01am 37

South Korean soldiers lock the entrance to a beach on Yeonpyeong island, near the Northern Limit Line with North Korea, on April 24. Photo: AFP

Insight & Opinion

How blue crabs could make or break peace on the Korean peninsula

18 May 2018 - 7:05pm 1

The Philippines must walk a fine line between preserving its access to territories and resources that China claims and provoking its much more powerful neighbour. Illustration: Timothy Mcevenue. timothymcevenue.net

Insight & Opinion

Compromise needed in Philippines over its South China Sea policy

6 May 2018 - 6:54pm 13

The goal for many nations is to maximise the economic benefit of China’s rise while retaining the benefits of US security protection. But the balancing act required to reach this goal is becoming more like a tightrope walk. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Insight & Opinion

Duterte a role model for Asean amid China-US rivalry

2 Apr 2018 - 7:49pm 3

Caught between the US and China, Australia must carefully balance its position on South China Sea issues amid Sino-US jostling. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Insight & Opinion

Why Australia should refrain from gunboat diplomacy with China

13 Mar 2018 - 7:02pm 57

Rescue ships douse the fire on the tanker Sanchi on Jaunary 10, four days after it collided with a Hong Kong-registered freighter off China's eastern coast. Photo: EPA-EFE/Transport Ministry of China

Insight & Opinion

How China-Japan tensions delayed Sanchi oil spill clean-up

22 Feb 2018 - 7:33pm

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hold a joint press conference after a meeting of foreign ministers from 20 countries in Vancouver on January 16. Photo: Kyodo

Insight & Opinion

US rethink shows dilemmas of intercepting North Korean ships

26 Jan 2018 - 7:31pm 4

While some see this as a great opportunity for Singapore to demonstrate its diplomatic mettle, it could become the proverbial albatross around its diplomatic neck. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Insight & Opinion

As Asean chair, Singapore faces a diplomatic test it may well fail

10 Jan 2018 - 11:54pm 20

Mark J. Valencia says the US failure to win UN Security Council authorisation for the use of force to interdict ships stems from a lack of trust in its intentions. The council’s other members are likely to oppose any such measure in the wake of Pyongyang’s latest missile tests

Insight & Opinion

Any US push to intercept North Korean ships will go nowhere

7 Dec 2017 - 10:24am 3

China's President Xi Jinping waves after attending the inauguration ceremony of the Chinese-sponsored Vietnam-China Cultural Friendship Palace in Hanoi, Vietnam, on November 12. Photo: AP

Insight & Opinion

Beijing outfoxes the US in the South China Sea – at least for now

24 Nov 2017 - 7:33pm 40

Dead sharks are found in a ship’s hold, at sea, off the coast of Com in East Timor, in this undated photo made available by the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society on September 15. The environmental protection group said it led East Timor police to a Chinese-owned fishing fleet with an allegedly illegal cargo of sharks. China’s boats do contribute significantly to illegal fishing but – at least from China’s perspective – not in Southeast Asian countries’ claimed waters in the South China Sea. Photo: EPA-EFE / Sea Shepherd Conservation Society

Insight & Opinion

Policing global waters to stop illegal fishing is not the US Navy’s job

20 Sep 2017 - 6:54pm 4

Mark Valencia says the hard and soft power confrontation between the two has all the makings of an existential contest because both see it as their right and destiny to dominate and shape the international order. A clash may be inevitable

Insight & Opinion

Clash of civilisations in South China Sea: will China or the US prevail?

5 Sep 2017 - 7:30pm 11

The guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain manoeuvres alongside the amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme Richard (unseen) for refuelling in the Philippine Sea in June. The destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of the China-claimed Mischief Reef in the South China Sea on August 10. Photo: EPA / US Navy

Insight & Opinion

US and China must set ground rules for freedom of navigation patrols

16 Aug 2017 - 7:12pm 5

The US could protect its legal position by declaring it and recording its objections in diplomatic statements and communiqués, rather than resorting to provocative freedom of navigation operations. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Insight & Opinion

US freedom patrols may further roil the South China Sea

26 Jul 2017 - 6:53pm 17

Mark J. Valencia says China’s perceptual domination of the sea lanes is complete and, military grandstanding aside, the US and others in the region will need to focus on realistic goals, rather than desirable ones

Insight & Opinion

Asean, US must accept Beijing calls the shots in the South China Sea

9 Jul 2017 - 7:03pm 41

The guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer transits the South China Sea on April 11. The US claims its interests in the South China Sea relate to a defence of freedom of navigation. But it purposely conflates freedom of commercial navigation with freedom to undertake military intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance probes against China and others in the region. Photo: US. Navy / Handout via Reuters

Insight & Opinion

On South China Sea, the US doesn’t speak for Asean

9 May 2017 - 8:54pm 4

Mark Valencia says all signs point to a nervous status quo in the South China Sea – though an out-and-out war is unlikely, the prospects of a truce, even a temporary one, are bleak

Insight & Opinion

South China Sea in the grip of neither war nor peace

10 Mar 2017 - 6:42pm 5

A Chinese H-6K bomber patrols the islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Photo: Xinhua via AP

Insight & Opinion

China not the only one ‘militarising’ the South China Sea

21 Dec 2016 - 6:34pm 22

Mark Valencia says three months after the landmark tribunal ruling against China on South China Sea issues, it is America’s presence – and welcome – in the region that is suddenly looking shaky

Insight & Opinion

How the US got outplayed in the Asia-Pacific

6 Oct 2016 - 5:00pm 4

Mark Valencia says the UN tribunal’s verdict has not only raised regional tensions but also has grave implications for the legitimacy of countries’ claims to territorial waters around various ‘islands’

Insight & Opinion

Why the South China Sea ruling opens a can of worms for maritime claims around the world

6 Sep 2016 - 7:07pm 13

The dispute and its resolution will not only affect Philippine-China economic, political and security relations, but have implications for China’s relations with the whole region – and its political stability.

Insight & Opinion

The makings of a South China Sea agreement between Beijing and Manila

7 Jul 2017 - 10:02pm 4

A Chinese H-6K bomber patrols reefs in the South China Sea. China is closing off a part of the sea for military exercises this week, days after an international tribunal ruled against its claim to ownership of virtually the entire waterway. Photo: Xinhua via AP

Insight & Opinion

A Sino-US deal on the South China Sea is difficult, but not impossible

20 Jul 2016 - 9:39am 12

Mark Valencia says run-ins between the two nations’ militaries will continue, no matter what safety rules are in place, unless and until a compromise deal can be struck

Insight & Opinion

Collision of security interests lies at the heart of China-US military incidents in the South China Sea

2 Jun 2016 - 9:54am 8

Mark Valencia considers the choices open to Rodrigo Duterte’s administration once the international court rules on its dispute with China

Insight & Opinion

How will the new Philippine president tackle the South China Sea issue?

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 9

<p>
<span class="tw_businessblue">Mark Valencia</span> says the advent of unmanned submersibles as the next frontier in military intelligence will strain already fraught Sino-US relations on surveillance activities and test international law </p>

Insight & Opinion

How underwater drones are threatening to escalate South China Sea tensions

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 10

<p>Mark Valencia says American fears that China could set up an air defence identification zone in disputed seas offer a chance for a mutually beneficial agreement</p>

Insight & Opinion

How a South China Sea air defence zone could be a bargaining chip for Sino-US negotiations

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 3

No Caption Available.

Insight & Opinion

The good, bad and downright ugly aspects of US naval operations in the South China Sea

20 May 2016 - 2:07pm 11

FILE - In this Monday, May 11, 2015, file photo, this aerial photo taken through a glass window of a military plane shows China's alleged on-going reclamation of Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. China’s campaign of island building in the South China Sea might soon quadruple the number of airstrips available to the People’s Liberation Army in the highly contested and strategically vital region. That could be bad news for other regional contenders, especially the U.S., the Philippines and Vietnam. (Ritchie B. Tongo/Pool Photo via AP, File)

Insight & Opinion

Is the US gearing up for a direct challenge to Beijing’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea?

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 16

The alleged ongoing land reclamation by China on Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, west of Palawan, Philippines, is seen in this aerial file photo taken though a glass window of a Philippine military plane on May 11, 2015. U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Scott Swift has warned of a possible arms race in the disputed South China Sea which could engulf the region, as nations become increasingly tempted to use military force to settle territorial spats instead of international law. REUTERS/Ritchie B. Tongo/Pool/Files

Insight & Opinion

Beijing likely to set its own course in South China Sea dispute with Philippines

20 May 2016 - 2:10pm 8

A Philippine national flag flutters in the wind aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, run aground on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea in this March 29, 2014 file photo. Indonesia has asked China to clarify its claims over the South China Sea but has yet to receive a response, the Foreign Ministry said on November 12, 2015, a day after Indonesia's security chief said Jakarta could take Beijing to court over an island dispute. Beijing's claim to almost the entire resource-rich sea is shown on Chinese maps with a nine-dash line that stretches deep into the maritime heart of Southeast Asia. Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei also claim parts of the waterway. REUTERS/Erik De Castro/Files

Insight & Opinion

A South China Sea code of conduct is still the holy grail of regional diplomacy – and just as likely to be discovered

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 1

Sailing a warship or flying a warplane into or over a country's territorial sea to demonstrate the right of free navigation could be construed as a threat to use force.

Insight & Opinion

US must veer away from collision course of testing China's claims in South China Sea

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 15

Basically the US needs to strike a "grand bargain" with China.

Insight & Opinion

Cool heads must prevail as anti-China drumbeats grow louder in the US over South China Sea reclamation

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 9

China could improve its legal and political position without really giving up very much. Doing so could bring its practice and policies within the scope of international law.

Insight & Opinion

What China can do to build its case in South China Sea territorial claims

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 1

In a sense, China's decision on an air defence identification zone in the South China Sea is in the hands of Washington and Tokyo.

Insight & Opinion

Can China and US seize the chance for compromise at Strategic and Economic Dialogue?

22 Jun 2015 - 4:30pm 21

China may well respond to the US strategy by stepping up its tactical assertiveness.

Insight & Opinion

US flights in South China Sea take it a step closer to conflict with China

20 May 2016 - 1:59pm 7