Latest from Mark J. Valencia
Egged on by the US, Japan has increased its military presence in the region, but it risks awakening regional discomfort barely buried after WWII and could find itself out of its depth if the US and China start secretly preparing for conflict.
Egged on by the US, Japan has increased its military presence in the region, but it risks awakening regional discomfort barely buried after WWII and could find itself out of its depth if the US and China start secretly preparing for conflict.
At the latest Asean summit in Thailand, the US failed to rally support for its criticism of China’s aggression in the South China Sea. Its sending of a lower-level delegation also reinforced suspicions of unreliable US commitment.
At the latest Asean summit in Thailand, the US failed to rally support for its criticism of China’s aggression in the South China Sea. Its sending of a lower-level delegation also reinforced suspicions of unreliable US commitment.
No one should expect the sovereignty disputes over rocks and reefs to be resolved any time soon. But claimants including China and the Philippines may reach compromises and agree to joint development deals.
No one should expect the sovereignty disputes over rocks and reefs to be resolved any time soon. But claimants including China and the Philippines may reach compromises and agree to joint development deals.
The US accuses China of militarising the South China Sea, but to Beijing, it is the Pentagon that has aggressively projected power in the region. The US also has a troubling policy of taking pre-emptive action against perceived threats.
The US accuses China of militarising the South China Sea, but to Beijing, it is the Pentagon that has aggressively projected power in the region. The US also has a troubling policy of taking pre-emptive action against perceived threats.
Several factors complicate the UK seizure of the Iranian ship. Did the UK have the right to impose EU sanctions on an Iranian vessel, or did it break UN laws? Other countries are waiting to see how the existing global order will be upheld.
Several factors complicate the UK seizure of the Iranian ship. Did the UK have the right to impose EU sanctions on an Iranian vessel, or did it break UN laws? Other countries are waiting to see how the existing global order will be upheld.
Amid growing Sino-US rivalry, Southeast Asian countries are stuck in the middle, enjoying Chinese economic aid and tech but also US military support. If America keeps making demands on them, it may simplify their choice when push comes to shove.
Amid growing Sino-US rivalry, Southeast Asian countries are stuck in the middle, enjoying Chinese economic aid and tech but also US military support. If America keeps making demands on them, it may simplify their choice when push comes to shove.
The national security adviser undermined diplomatic attempts with North Korea, supported regime change in Venezuela and appears to be goading Iran in the Persian Gulf. Bolton’s greatest danger is that he could upset the existing international order.
The national security adviser undermined diplomatic attempts with North Korea, supported regime change in Venezuela and appears to be goading Iran in the Persian Gulf. Bolton’s greatest danger is that he could upset the existing international order.
Two Chinese jets crossed into Taiwan’s airspace last month as a warning aimed at the US, ratcheting up tension over a US-China dispute that boils down to their different interpretations of the ‘right of transit passage’ clause in the Law of the Sea.
Two Chinese jets crossed into Taiwan’s airspace last month as a warning aimed at the US, ratcheting up tension over a US-China dispute that boils down to their different interpretations of the ‘right of transit passage’ clause in the Law of the Sea.
Southeast Asian nations, because of their colonial experience, are sensitive to real or imagined slights. Although China is different from their former colonial masters, it must tread carefully in expanding its influence in the region.
Southeast Asian nations, because of their colonial experience, are sensitive to real or imagined slights. Although China is different from their former colonial masters, it must tread carefully in expanding its influence in the region.
The US national security adviser, known for his disdain for global treaties, is renewing a US effort to interdict ships suspected of carrying banned cargo to and from North Korea and violating UN sanctions. The trouble is, this could legitimately be seen as an act of war.
The US national security adviser, known for his disdain for global treaties, is renewing a US effort to interdict ships suspected of carrying banned cargo to and from North Korea and violating UN sanctions. The trouble is, this could legitimately be seen as an act of war.
Recent confrontational remarks by Chinese military officers on the US are a response to American provocation in the form of increased freedom of navigation operations, new alliances such as the Quad and anti-China rhetoric in US foreign policy circles.
Recent confrontational remarks by Chinese military officers on the US are a response to American provocation in the form of increased freedom of navigation operations, new alliances such as the Quad and anti-China rhetoric in US foreign policy circles.
Instead of seeking to contain China through a strategy of ‘competitive coexistence’, the US must accept China’s growing influence and realistically negotiate the transition to a new order in which power is shared.
Instead of seeking to contain China through a strategy of ‘competitive coexistence’, the US must accept China’s growing influence and realistically negotiate the transition to a new order in which power is shared.
A possible review of the Philippines’ Mutual Defence Treaty with the US has alarmed US-Asia policy experts, but the rhetoric continues to centre on American interests.
A possible review of the Philippines’ Mutual Defence Treaty with the US has alarmed US-Asia policy experts, but the rhetoric continues to centre on American interests.
Malaysia’s territorial disputes with Singapore reflect the countries’ bitter past. But, in the long term, a trade-off is possible: one side gets to maintain its maritime claim, and the other gets to manage the airspace.
Malaysia’s territorial disputes with Singapore reflect the countries’ bitter past. But, in the long term, a trade-off is possible: one side gets to maintain its maritime claim, and the other gets to manage the airspace.
Britain’s ambition to project post-Brexit global influence and join the US in containing China may have consequences London isn’t prepared for.
Britain’s ambition to project post-Brexit global influence and join the US in containing China may have consequences London isn’t prepared for.
The new US defence secretary will have to understand, as James Mattis did, the balance required for the US to stay in the Indo-Pacific as a leading strategic power but also prevent conflict with China.
The new US defence secretary will have to understand, as James Mattis did, the balance required for the US to stay in the Indo-Pacific as a leading strategic power but also prevent conflict with China.
With Beijing and Washington stepping up their struggle for influence in the region, a bitter debate on how Manila should respond is polarising the political classes and stirring up old rivalries.
With Beijing and Washington stepping up their struggle for influence in the region, a bitter debate on how Manila should respond is polarising the political classes and stirring up old rivalries.
Southeast Asian nations are open to better ties with China and do not necessarily see US freedom of navigation operations as being in their interests. By proposing joint development or mutual use of disputed areas and capitalising on its economic power, China could lure Southeast Asia away from the US.
Southeast Asian nations are open to better ties with China and do not necessarily see US freedom of navigation operations as being in their interests. By proposing joint development or mutual use of disputed areas and capitalising on its economic power, China could lure Southeast Asia away from the US.
A recent US-China security dialogue failed to produce any tension-defusing agreement. The two sides agreed that the talks had been “candid”, but the US continued to misconstrue Xi Jinping’s remarks on militarisation in the South China Sea.
A recent US-China security dialogue failed to produce any tension-defusing agreement. The two sides agreed that the talks had been “candid”, but the US continued to misconstrue Xi Jinping’s remarks on militarisation in the South China Sea.
Mark J. Valencia says amid escalating tensions between the US and China, the meeting between the two defence chiefs could establish ground rules for what may prove to be a dangerous period for US-China relations ahead.
Mark J. Valencia says amid escalating tensions between the US and China, the meeting between the two defence chiefs could establish ground rules for what may prove to be a dangerous period for US-China relations ahead.
Washington and Beijing both act as though they know what the other wants in the South China Sea, but may be falling victim to worst-case thinking that risks further conflict.
Washington and Beijing both act as though they know what the other wants in the South China Sea, but may be falling victim to worst-case thinking that risks further conflict.
The non-binding Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea is creating false hopes for regional maritime stability. The real problem is China and the US have conflicting security strategies for China’s near seas.
The non-binding Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea is creating false hopes for regional maritime stability. The real problem is China and the US have conflicting security strategies for China’s near seas.
The Rim of the Pacific Exercise from which China was excluded this year is no floating cocktail party but a display of US soft power.
The Rim of the Pacific Exercise from which China was excluded this year is no floating cocktail party but a display of US soft power.
Asean claimants to features in the South China Sea are wavering in their support for a provocative American presence in the region, as they seek to find the right balance between China and the US.
Asean claimants to features in the South China Sea are wavering in their support for a provocative American presence in the region, as they seek to find the right balance between China and the US.
While the US may paint China as an opponent of international order that is ‘militarising’ the South China Sea, it is no stranger to bending global norms, or to militarisation, itself
While the US may paint China as an opponent of international order that is ‘militarising’ the South China Sea, it is no stranger to bending global norms, or to militarisation, itself
The US’ new, more confrontational approach to China’s actions in the South China Sea is based on misconceptions and disingenuous thinking – and could provoke conflict if Beijing isn’t prepared to back down.
The US’ new, more confrontational approach to China’s actions in the South China Sea is based on misconceptions and disingenuous thinking – and could provoke conflict if Beijing isn’t prepared to back down.
The agreement between North and South Korea to establish a maritime peace zone would go some way towards preventing conflict at sea.
The agreement between North and South Korea to establish a maritime peace zone would go some way towards preventing conflict at sea.
The Philippines needs to reach a compromise over its South China Sea claims – both with Beijing and in its own domestic politics, to prevent the dispute between idealists and realists from paralysing the country.
The Philippines needs to reach a compromise over its South China Sea claims – both with Beijing and in its own domestic politics, to prevent the dispute between idealists and realists from paralysing the country.
The Philippine leader has succeeded so far in doing what most nations in the region must do – maintain its relations with both Beijing and Washington to its own benefit, but without angering either.
The Philippine leader has succeeded so far in doing what most nations in the region must do – maintain its relations with both Beijing and Washington to its own benefit, but without angering either.
Australia, caught between China and the US, is flip-flopping on freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. However, threatening China’s territorial claims would be counterproductive.
Australia, caught between China and the US, is flip-flopping on freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. However, threatening China’s territorial claims would be counterproductive.