OpinionCan embattled Hong Kong vanquish the ‘five horsemen’ of its apocalypse?

Regina Ip says among the five disruptive forces that could send Hong Kong society into steady decline, the inability of the administration to govern remains the greatest existential threat

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Legislative Council president Jasper Tsang attending a Legco session. Filibustering in the chamber has only intensified since the political reform package failed to pass in June. Photo: Nora Tam

Published: 9:30am, 19 Dec 2015Updated: 9:30am, 19 Dec 2015

The holiday season is usually a time for good tidings. But in embattled Hong Kong, where government business runs into fierce opposition in the legislature, it is timely to reflect on the city’s future, in the light of forces shaping civilisations.

Professor Ian Morris, a classical historian who has studied the social development of civilisations across millennia and continents, has identified five forces which determine whether a civilisation could break through a “hard ceiling” on development. These disruptive forces – the “five horsemen of the apocalypse” – are: climate change, famine, state failure, migration and disease.

The future of this city has ramifications out of proportion to its tiny geographical size and small population

Although Hong Kong is no more than a mere speck on the South China coast, with its economic importance as an international business and financial hub, and its strategic importance as the first special administrative region of China under “one country, two systems”, the future of this city has ramifications out of proportion to its tiny geographical size and small population.

Hong Kong is advanced in social development by any yardstick. Using Morris’ analytical framework, whether Hong Kong could break through the “hard ceiling” on its development would depend on its ability to vanquish the “five horsemen of the apocalypse”.

READ MORE: Hong Kong’s challenge is to restore confidence or face a brain drain

Smog hangs over Hong Kong. The city will do its part to curb carbon emissions, but the success of its efforts will depend on the actions taken by the international community. Photo: EPA

Climate change, now high on the global agenda, is clearly one important factor affecting Hong Kong’s long-term well-being. In lockstep with its motherland, China, which is a party to the recently concluded universal agreement to combat climate change, Hong Kong will do its part to curb carbon emissions. But the success of its efforts will depend on the actions taken by the international community.

The threat of famine might seem a joke to many who see Hong Kong as an affluent society. But those who scoff at this threat should bear in mind the acute shortage of powdered baby’s milk in 2012, which came to a head in early 2013. The demand from mainland Chinese mothers for infant formula became so overwhelming that the chief executive had to slap on export controls, to the anger of our mainland brethren. Absent such controls, the shortage of powdered baby milk could return to haunt our mothers.