Opinion | Is China defending its interests in the South China Sea – or its pride?
Cary Huang believes Beijing will lose much more than it can gain from a refusal to honour an international ruling on its territorial quarrel with the Philippines
It is widely expected that the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague will rule in favour of the Philippines in its dispute with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea.
That ruling will not only challenge the legality of China’s “nine-dotted line” claim over most of the waterway under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, it will also put Beijing in a political and diplomatic quandary, as it will have to decide whether this is about defending “national pride” and its “core interests”, or to show that it is a responsible and peace-loving rising power.
Is there a way for Beijing to save face after the South China Sea arbitration ruling?
The dispute is awash with competing historic, geographical and legal narratives among six claimants, which also include Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. It is true that the impending ruling may not be able to settle the issues, given their complexity, particularly as The Hague has no powers of enforcement and its rulings have been ignored before.
But the arguments have become a new venue for Sino-US competition, pitting China against a United States-led regional, even global, alliance. The disputes date back, in some cases, centuries, but recent Chinese action to create islands and install military hardware at a rapid pace has triggered jitters in the region.
China is sailing solo on South China Sea issues, despite its claims to the contrary
In reaction, Washington demands that freedom of navigation be preserved at all costs throughout trade routes, and has dispatched warships and fighter jets to sail near or fly over Chinese-held islands to challenge China. This has been supported by all the other G7 member nations as well as the European Union, not to mention most of China’s neighbours, with just a few – such as Russia, Cambodia and Laos – remaining neutral. The US has formal military alliances with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, and has formed or is forming security partnerships with Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Burma and India. Washington has deployed some 360,000 active servicemen in the region.
