China’s might and Hong Kong’s autonomy: can Carrie Lam find a balance between the two?
Regina Ip says many of our problems come down to the Hong Kong government’s inability to balance ‘one country’ and ‘two systems’. Carrie Lam, if she wins the leadership race, should brace for an even more challenging task
Just as it has been said that every financial crisis is different, so the dynamics of Hong Kong’s chief executive elections have varied greatly every five years they have been held.
The rise and fall of Hong Kong’s pro-independence lawmakers
With their record number of votes, the pan-democrats have become a formidable force shaping the election. The match has thus become a contest between a candidate backed by the pan-democrats, and one favoured by Beijing.
Barring any major blunder which would torpedo Beijing’s support for Lam, she is indeed most likely to win. But her election will not solve the many governance problems long bedevilling the government.
Continuing the same pattern as the mass elections in recent years, the chief executive election all but confirms the deep political fault line within our society. The pan-democrats are pursuing the same tactics as in the geographical elections – by fielding a candidate, this time in the shape of a former senior official who was part of the establishment, who wins public kudos by appearing to counter the tremendous might of China.
If Tsang loses, as he is likely to given the pro-establishment majority on the Election Committee, the pan-democrats would still win big by putting Beijing in an embarrassing position, and undermining Lam’s credibility even before she takes office. While Lam is poised to be elected with a comfortable majority on March 26, the same scenario is likely to be played out again five years from now, except that the pan-democrats would be in a stronger position to challenge the establishment with a vengeance.
With disgruntled young professionals outnumbering established ones, unless there is any dramatic improvement in governance, the pan-democrats’ strength is likely to grow. As in other parts of the world, Hong Kong is feeling the impact of disruptive technologies displacing established businesses. Coupled with a widening wealth gap, this trend is more likely than not to exacerbate discontent in the city.
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Hong Kong must protect its high degree of autonomy to ensure ‘one country, two systems’ remains effective
But at the heart of the constitutional debate is the extent of Hong Kong people’s autonomy within “one country, two systems”. The balance between the overwhelming might of the country and the high degree of autonomy of little Hong Kong is never easy to calibrate. In fact, many of the governance problems in Hong Kong in the past 20 years have stemmed from the local government’s inability to find the right balance.
That is the next chief’s greatest challenge, and one that Lam would not be able to avoid right from day one when she takes up her post – assuming she wins.
Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee is a legislator and chair of the New People’s Party