Are China and Japan on the road to better relations? It’s complicated

An apparent “entente” of the kind being witnessed now between Japan and China, whose mutual relations have long been severely strained over a series of issues, seems almost too good to be true – and in some ways it is. A marriage or “alliance” of convenience better describes what is taking place.

Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, and China’s president, Xi Jinping, who could barely manage more than a limp and grimacing handshake a couple of years ago – and then only in the third-party setting of an international meeting – are now preparing for official visits to each other’s countries.

If this were a spontaneous meeting of minds and a real rapprochement between Asia’s most important powers, it would be an occasion for rejoicing. But it is more a question of expediency on both sides, although it does also perhaps offer a step along the road towards greater stability in Asia.

Abe and Xi appear anxious to “hedge” against an unpredictable US President Donald Trump, whose relations with both could be undermined by trade tensions. At the same time, they need to find a kind of modus vivendi to replace their mutually destabilising competition and confrontation.

But Abe is hoping to achieve his own ends. He is proposing a summit of Japanese, Chinese and South Korean leaders in Japan this spring. This would involve him acting as a leader of East Asian diplomacy and position him well vis-à-vis Trump, to whom he acts as a mentor on Asian affairs.