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The View
Opinion
Nicholas Spiro

The View | Global market sell-off has shaken investors out of their complacency – and that’s a good thing

  • Nicholas Spiro says debate over the causes of the severe deterioration has been fierce. Whatever the reasons, the return of volatility has been useful in ridding markets of complacency, arguably the biggest risk in recent years

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Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference. US President Donald Trump has blamed Powell’s determination to hike interest rates for recent stock market struggles. Photo: AFP

What a difference a month can make.

On September 20, the benchmark S&P 500 equity index hit a record high, closing just 70 points below the lofty level of 3,000. Yet by the time markets closed last Friday, the index had lost 9.3 per cent, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance since February 2009.

In a sign of the abruptness and severity of the sell-off, two of the five worst trading sessions for the S&P 500 since 2015 have occurred in the last fortnight, according to data from Bloomberg. Global stocks, moreover, which have lost 9.4 per cent in October, are on course for their worst month since the height of the euro zone crisis in mid-2012.

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Yet it is the sharp deterioration in sentiment in America’s once-resilient stock market – the S&P 500 has swung from an all-time high to being on the verge of entering correction territory in the space of just five weeks – that has stunned international investors and sparked a fierce debate over the precise causes of this month’s sell-off.

Is it the fears about China’s slowing economy, exacerbated by the continuation of the trade war, which have shone a spotlight on the acute tensions between Beijing’s deleveraging campaign and efforts to shore up growth and stem the rout in mainland stocks? Signs that capital outflows are picking up – net purchases of foreign currency by Chinese banks’ clients have risen to their highest level since 2016, according to Bloomberg, adding to the strain on the yuan – increase the risk of a 2015-type crisis. What is more, all the spikes in volatility in Chinese equities over the past several years have been accompanied by sharp falls in global stocks.

Watch: Why Chinese economic figures are giving statisticians a headache

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