Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory.
Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory.

Latest from Nicholas Spiro

The View | Hong Kong’s hotel sector is in free fall as violent protests keep tourists from the mainland, and elsewhere, away

In a matter of months, the strong fundamentals of Hong Kong’s tourism industry have been dealt a massive blow. The hotel market is now a proxy for the perceived stability of Asia’s financial hub, and things don’t look good.

17 Sep 2019 - 6:56AM

In a matter of months, the strong fundamentals of Hong Kong’s tourism industry have been dealt a massive blow. The hotel market is now a proxy for the perceived stability of Asia’s financial hub, and things don’t look good.

Hong Kong’s hotel sector is in free fall as violent protests keep tourists from the mainland, and elsewhere, away
Macroscope | Central banks like the Fed and the ECB can’t save the global economy when governments refuse to play their part

Fed and ECB actions after the 2008 crisis have been crucial, but they have reached the limits of what they can achieve. If governments like Germany won’t stimulate and Italy won’t reform, it’s unreasonable to expect more from central banks.

13 Sep 2019 - 4:18AM

Fed and ECB actions after the 2008 crisis have been crucial, but they have reached the limits of what they can achieve. If governments like Germany won’t stimulate and Italy won’t reform, it’s unreasonable to expect more from central banks.

Central banks like the Fed and the ECB can’t save the global economy when governments refuse to play their part
The View | Markets remain confident about Hong Kong’s future, even though poor leadership is undermining it

Despite the unrest and Fitch’s downgrade, markets do not believe Hong Kong’s special status as a financial centre is in danger. Rather, it is Hong Kong’s own government that has done more to sow uncertainty about the city’s stability.

10 Sep 2019 - 7:15AM

Despite the unrest and Fitch’s downgrade, markets do not believe Hong Kong’s special status as a financial centre is in danger. Rather, it is Hong Kong’s own government that has done more to sow uncertainty about the city’s stability.

Markets remain confident about Hong Kong’s future, even though poor leadership is undermining it
Macroscope | US consumer confidence shines amid the gathering economic gloom. But for how long?

With the latest manufacturing data apparently supporting growing market pessimism as the US-China trade war rages on, US consumer sentiment has become the single most important factor shaping the global economic outlook.

6 Sep 2019 - 3:29AM

With the latest manufacturing data apparently supporting growing market pessimism as the US-China trade war rages on, US consumer sentiment has become the single most important factor shaping the global economic outlook.

US consumer confidence shines amid the gathering economic gloom. But for how long?
The View | Amid protest violence and dire warnings for Hong Kong’s economy, mainland property investors provide some hope

Behind the – deservedly – gloomy headlines about the economy, mainlanders are still bullish on Hong Kong. This is especially true of office property around Central, and suggests the city is still crucial to China’s plans.

3 Sep 2019 - 11:17AM

Behind the – deservedly – gloomy headlines about the economy, mainlanders are still bullish on Hong Kong. This is especially true of office property around Central, and suggests the city is still crucial to China’s plans.

Amid protest violence and dire warnings for Hong Kong’s economy, mainland property investors provide some hope
Macroscope | For investors, Donald Trump’s tweets just sow confusion. In the trade war with China, they undermine his own position

The president’s Twitter missives make news, but their erratic musings also make for confusion about US policy direction. Even his negotiating partners in Beijing are starting to realise that such ramblings reveal he won’t honour any deal.

30 Aug 2019 - 4:50AM

The president’s Twitter missives make news, but their erratic musings also make for confusion about US policy direction. Even his negotiating partners in Beijing are starting to realise that such ramblings reveal he won’t honour any deal.

For investors, Donald Trump’s tweets just sow confusion. In the trade war with China, they undermine his own position
The View | Why Hong Kong home and office costs are likely to weather political crisis and trade war

A prolonged recession could cause heavier strain on the home and office markets but, for now, they are likely to weather the storm due to a supply squeeze.

19 Aug 2019 - 10:31PM

A prolonged recession could cause heavier strain on the home and office markets but, for now, they are likely to weather the storm due to a supply squeeze.

Why Hong Kong home and office costs are likely to weather political crisis and trade war
Macroscope | Easy money is losing its magic as global recession fears spread

The Fed’s abrupt reversal of a rate hike cycle has succeeded in ramping up anxiety about a global slowdown. In the current climate of fear, bad news for the economy might no longer be good news for the markets.

16 Aug 2019 - 4:55AM

The Fed’s abrupt reversal of a rate hike cycle has succeeded in ramping up anxiety about a global slowdown. In the current climate of fear, bad news for the economy might no longer be good news for the markets.

Easy money is losing its magic as global recession fears spread
The View | Cities in trouble: London will weather a no-deal Brexit but can Hong Kong survive its political crisis?

While commercial property investment in both cities has fallen sharply, the challenges facing Asia’s premier financial hub are more severe than those affecting London. In Hong Kong, the anti-government protests have only just begun.

12 Aug 2019 - 10:28PM

While commercial property investment in both cities has fallen sharply, the challenges facing Asia’s premier financial hub are more severe than those affecting London. In Hong Kong, the anti-government protests have only just begun.

Cities in trouble: London will weather a no-deal Brexit but can Hong Kong survive its political crisis?
Macroscope | Trade war escalation leaves markets shaken, but a meltdown is not on the cards

Trump’s latest tariffs and the yuan’s slide this week are forcing investors to take the threat of a prolonged stand-off more seriously, but a dovish Fed and growing confidence in China’s ability to manage its currency are among the reasons we are still some way from a fully fledged crisis.

9 Aug 2019 - 2:21AM

Trump’s latest tariffs and the yuan’s slide this week are forcing investors to take the threat of a prolonged stand-off more seriously, but a dovish Fed and growing confidence in China’s ability to manage its currency are among the reasons we are still some way from a fully fledged crisis.

Trade war escalation leaves markets shaken, but a meltdown is not on the cards
Macroscope | Trade war, rate cuts, huge deficits – Trump gets away with it thanks to the US’ ‘exorbitant privilege’

Globalised finance means capital flows into the US in times of uncertainty, even when the US causes that instability. Investors should question whether the US’ budget-busting is sustainable.

2 Aug 2019 - 3:34AM

Globalised finance means capital flows into the US in times of uncertainty, even when the US causes that instability. Investors should question whether the US’ budget-busting is sustainable.

Trade war, rate cuts, huge deficits – Trump gets away with it thanks to the US’ ‘exorbitant privilege’
The View | As protests rock Hong Kong, money may flee to safer and cheaper property markets

For Hong Kong property investors, acute threats to the city’s stability are increasing the appeal of cities like Vancouver and Sydney, where house prices have been brought under control.

30 Jul 2019 - 6:27AM

For Hong Kong property investors, acute threats to the city’s stability are increasing the appeal of cities like Vancouver and Sydney, where house prices have been brought under control.

As protests rock Hong Kong, money may flee to safer and cheaper property markets
Macroscope | Emerging markets are pulling in funds, but is investor optimism justified?

While a fund manager survey shows emerging markets are the most popular region for equity investors, growth in these countries is contracting. China’s ballooning debt-to-GDP ratio amid the trade war will hit emerging Asia hard.

26 Jul 2019 - 6:02AM

While a fund manager survey shows emerging markets are the most popular region for equity investors, growth in these countries is contracting. China’s ballooning debt-to-GDP ratio amid the trade war will hit emerging Asia hard.

Emerging markets are pulling in funds, but is investor optimism justified?
The View | Shanghai’s real estate market is bucking trends in global property sales and China’s own economy

Slowing economic conditions are working to the advantage of China’s financial hub, as risk-averse investors are drawn to familiar locations and Shanghai benefits from a glut of decentralised stock.

23 Jul 2019 - 6:21AM

Slowing economic conditions are working to the advantage of China’s financial hub, as risk-averse investors are drawn to familiar locations and Shanghai benefits from a glut of decentralised stock.

Shanghai’s real estate market is bucking trends in global property sales and China’s own economy
Macroscope | If Trump has a currency war in mind as part of his presidential campaign, he’s not likely to get very far

Trump’s comments on the US dollar and the Federal Reserve have sparked fears that he might take steps to weaken the American currency. However, neither the Fed nor other central banks, such as in the euro zone and Japan, are likely to cooperate.

19 Jul 2019 - 4:02AM

Trump’s comments on the US dollar and the Federal Reserve have sparked fears that he might take steps to weaken the American currency. However, neither the Fed nor other central banks, such as in the euro zone and Japan, are likely to cooperate.

If Trump has a currency war in mind as part of his presidential campaign, he’s not likely to get very far
The View | Hong Kong’s property market takes its cue from the Hang Seng Index, not protesters

The Hang Seng Index’s impact on housing prices trumps other factors such as interest rates and the flow of funds from the mainland. Given the index’s sensitivity to China’s economy, a stock market sell-off is only a matter of time, but property prices will continue to rise in the coming months.

16 Jul 2019 - 9:08AM

The Hang Seng Index’s impact on housing prices trumps other factors such as interest rates and the flow of funds from the mainland. Given the index’s sensitivity to China’s economy, a stock market sell-off is only a matter of time, but property prices will continue to rise in the coming months.

Hong Kong’s property market takes its cue from the Hang Seng Index, not protesters
Macroscope | Why the stock market rally will not last long, despite dovish moves by central banks

While recent stock market gains are rooted in confidence that central banks will ease monetary policy, investors are not moving into assets that profit from stronger growth. This indicates a lack of faith in the effectiveness of more stimulus.

12 Jul 2019 - 4:38AM

While recent stock market gains are rooted in confidence that central banks will ease monetary policy, investors are not moving into assets that profit from stronger growth. This indicates a lack of faith in the effectiveness of more stimulus.

Why the stock market rally will not last long, despite dovish moves by central banks
The View | Retail decline in the US and Britain can’t be blamed on e-commerce alone. Look at China

The continuing closure of shopping malls and high street stores in the West stands in sharp contrast to the integrated model, a mix of online and bricks-and-mortar retail, now spurring an industry boom in China.

9 Jul 2019 - 2:59AM

The continuing closure of shopping malls and high street stores in the West stands in sharp contrast to the integrated model, a mix of online and bricks-and-mortar retail, now spurring an industry boom in China.

Retail decline in the US and Britain can’t be blamed on e-commerce alone. Look at China
Macroscope | Donald Trump wants a weaker US dollar. But that’s just bad economics

Trump has accused Europe and China of devaluing their currencies to gain trade advantages and claims the Fed is keeping interest rates too high. But, whether he likes it or not, a strong greenback is also a sign of a resilient US economy.

5 Jul 2019 - 3:54AM

Trump has accused Europe and China of devaluing their currencies to gain trade advantages and claims the Fed is keeping interest rates too high. But, whether he likes it or not, a strong greenback is also a sign of a resilient US economy.

Donald Trump wants a weaker US dollar. But that’s just bad economics
The View | Why Hong Kong’s office market has the edge over Singapore’s, despite the eye-popping rents in Central

While it’s easy to assume Hong Kong’s runaway prices and growing instability will benefit competitors, including Singapore, that doesn’t take account of the city’s decentralised, mature office submarkets that Singapore has yet to fully develop.

2 Jul 2019 - 10:10AM

While it’s easy to assume Hong Kong’s runaway prices and growing instability will benefit competitors, including Singapore, that doesn’t take account of the city’s decentralised, mature office submarkets that Singapore has yet to fully develop.

Why Hong Kong’s office market has the edge over Singapore’s, despite the eye-popping rents in Central
Macroscope | A mini bear market in bonds might be what the world needs as investors amass US$13 trillion in negative-yield debt

The plunge in bond yields, which has powered a stock market rally, partly reflects investors’ outsize expectations of further monetary stimulus. Positive news on the US-China trade war could trigger a fixed income sell-off on fears that central banks might pull back from easing policy.

27 Jun 2019 - 2:32PM

The plunge in bond yields, which has powered a stock market rally, partly reflects investors’ outsize expectations of further monetary stimulus. Positive news on the US-China trade war could trigger a fixed income sell-off on fears that central banks might pull back from easing policy.

A mini bear market in bonds might be what the world needs as investors amass US$13 trillion in negative-yield debt
Macroscope | Risks posed by trade war and Federal Reserve policy are graver than investors seem to realise

Markets must come to terms with the fact that China and the US are too far apart on crucial issues for the trade war to be resolved soon. When central banks themselves have become sources of volatility, investors must wake up to the dangers of underpricing risk.

20 Jun 2019 - 10:29PM

Markets must come to terms with the fact that China and the US are too far apart on crucial issues for the trade war to be resolved soon. When central banks themselves have become sources of volatility, investors must wake up to the dangers of underpricing risk.

Risks posed by trade war and Federal Reserve policy are graver than investors seem to realise
The View | Hong Kong’s extradition turmoil won’t dampen the property market greatly – but China’s economy might

The city’s property market is correlated to the stock market, which remains robust. Moreover, demand from mainland investors continues to be strong while supply of residential and commercial space is limited.

18 Jun 2019 - 9:26AM

The city’s property market is correlated to the stock market, which remains robust. Moreover, demand from mainland investors continues to be strong while supply of residential and commercial space is limited.

Hong Kong’s extradition turmoil won’t dampen the property market greatly – but China’s economy might
Macroscope | Four reasons quantitative easing is not the solution to the global economy’s problems right now

The damaging effects of the previous rounds of quantitative easing are still being felt in low bond yields, falls in European and American bank shares and increased income inequality. Further monetary policy loosening might convince investors a recession is imminent while a market rally could encourage Trump in his trade war.

13 Jun 2019 - 10:35PM

The damaging effects of the previous rounds of quantitative easing are still being felt in low bond yields, falls in European and American bank shares and increased income inequality. Further monetary policy loosening might convince investors a recession is imminent while a market rally could encourage Trump in his trade war.

Four reasons quantitative easing is not the solution to the global economy’s problems right now
The View | With e-commerce booming, investors should make space for Asia-Pacific’s biggest warehouse landlord

ESR Cayman, expected to be Hong Kong’s largest initial public offering so far this year, will benefit from high prime logistics yields in Asia-Pacific, growing disposable incomes in China and India, and government support for the logistics industry.

10 Jun 2019 - 10:36PM

ESR Cayman, expected to be Hong Kong’s largest initial public offering so far this year, will benefit from high prime logistics yields in Asia-Pacific, growing disposable incomes in China and India, and government support for the logistics industry.

With e-commerce booming, investors should make space for Asia-Pacific’s biggest warehouse landlord
Macroscope | Three reasons the ‘Trump bump’ can no longer be counted on to prop up financial markets

Standing up to China is now a bipartisan political strategy and the US president’s unpredictable trade policies are taking a toll on market confidence. So, investors should be cautious, especially as Fed rate cuts are not guaranteed.

6 Jun 2019 - 10:32PM

Standing up to China is now a bipartisan political strategy and the US president’s unpredictable trade policies are taking a toll on market confidence. So, investors should be cautious, especially as Fed rate cuts are not guaranteed.

Three reasons the ‘Trump bump’ can no longer be counted on to prop up financial markets
The View | Has Asia’s commercial property bull market peaked? Here are three reasons to suggest it has further to run

Investors are still ploughing money into the Hong Kong office market, for example, even though prime yields are close to three-month US bond yields. Clearly, there’s a lot more money waiting to be deployed across the region.

3 Jun 2019 - 10:21PM

Investors are still ploughing money into the Hong Kong office market, for example, even though prime yields are close to three-month US bond yields. Clearly, there’s a lot more money waiting to be deployed across the region.

Has Asia’s commercial property bull market peaked? Here are three reasons to suggest it has further to run
Macroscope | Why the US-China tech war spells bigger trouble for investors than the conflict over trade

With many investors overweight on the tech sector, which has fuelled the decade-long stock market rally, Trump’s focus on technology in his battle with China could hit portfolios hard. However, a sell-off may be what is needed to ease tensions.

30 May 2019 - 10:51PM

With many investors overweight on the tech sector, which has fuelled the decade-long stock market rally, Trump’s focus on technology in his battle with China could hit portfolios hard. However, a sell-off may be what is needed to ease tensions.

Why the US-China tech war spells bigger trouble for investors than the conflict over trade
Macroscope | As tourism in the Asia-Pacific booms, the hotel industry is the real estate sector to watch

While mature markets in the region, such as Hong Kong and Japan, are performing strongly, mainland China is driving growth in development and investment. Meanwhile, Vietnam, which recorded the strongest growth in visitor arrivals, is the standout market.

27 May 2019 - 10:29PM

While mature markets in the region, such as Hong Kong and Japan, are performing strongly, mainland China is driving growth in development and investment. Meanwhile, Vietnam, which recorded the strongest growth in visitor arrivals, is the standout market.

As tourism in the Asia-Pacific booms, the hotel industry is the real estate sector to watch
Macroscope | As the US-China trade war escalates, stock markets have been shaken but not stirred

A mere 3 per cent drop in the S&P 500 this month, despite the escalation in the US-China trade, war indicates that markets have not adequately grasped the risk that the conflict poses.

23 May 2019 - 10:24PM

A mere 3 per cent drop in the S&P 500 this month, despite the escalation in the US-China trade, war indicates that markets have not adequately grasped the risk that the conflict poses.

As the US-China trade war escalates, stock markets have been shaken but not stirred