Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory.
Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory.

Latest from Nicholas Spiro

Macroscope | As the US-China trade war escalates, stock markets have been shaken but not stirred

A mere 3 per cent drop in the S&P 500 this month, despite the escalation in the US-China trade, war indicates that markets have not adequately grasped the risk that the conflict poses.

23 May 2019 - 2:00PM

A mere 3 per cent drop in the S&P 500 this month, despite the escalation in the US-China trade, war indicates that markets have not adequately grasped the risk that the conflict poses.

As the US-China trade war escalates, stock markets have been shaken but not stirred
The View | Unmoved by trade war escalations, China’s commercial real estate market outperforms competitors

Asset turnover, the Greater Bay Area and Beijing’s economic stimulus have all helped China’s real estate market defy global trends and the broad slowdown in its own economy.

20 May 2019 - 11:02PM

Asset turnover, the Greater Bay Area and Beijing’s economic stimulus have all helped China’s real estate market defy global trends and the broad slowdown in its own economy.

Unmoved by trade war escalations, China’s commercial real estate market outperforms competitors
Macroscope | A dovish Fed and other central banks could save emerging markets from a repeat of last year’s turmoil

While emerging markets are under renewed pressure from similar factors that were behind last year’s rout, central banks seem more accommodative this year. However, a change in investor sentiment could lead to rapid outflows from the asset class.

16 May 2019 - 10:26PM

While emerging markets are under renewed pressure from similar factors that were behind last year’s rout, central banks seem more accommodative this year. However, a change in investor sentiment could lead to rapid outflows from the asset class.

A dovish Fed and other central banks could save emerging markets from a repeat of last year’s turmoil
The View | Failed trade talks could cool Hong Kong’s housing market, but not enough to ease supply concerns

The gains in property prices this year show that legitimate concerns over trade war negotiations are not priced in. Still, demand and limited land mean housing prices will continue to bedevil Hong Kong.

14 May 2019 - 7:00AM

The gains in property prices this year show that legitimate concerns over trade war negotiations are not priced in. Still, demand and limited land mean housing prices will continue to bedevil Hong Kong.

Failed trade talks could cool Hong Kong’s housing market, but not enough to ease supply concerns
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s trade tweets and the Federal Reserve chief’s missteps are sending markets on a roller-coaster ride

Trump’s choice to spend political capital on tough trade tactics and Powell’s mixed signals on interest rates may be temporary, but they are playing havoc with the markets. Will investors be willing to wait them out?

13 May 2019 - 10:46AM

Trump’s choice to spend political capital on tough trade tactics and Powell’s mixed signals on interest rates may be temporary, but they are playing havoc with the markets. Will investors be willing to wait them out?

Donald Trump’s trade tweets and the Federal Reserve chief’s missteps are sending markets on a roller-coaster ride
Macroscope | The US is still outperforming its competitors in global markets, but a rising dollar and the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected could change that

The US economy has far outgrown other developed economies, especially Japan and Europe. The strength of the dollar is concerning, though, as is Donald Trump’s fiscal stewardship.

3 May 2019 - 1:57AM

The US economy has far outgrown other developed economies, especially Japan and Europe. The strength of the dollar is concerning, though, as is Donald Trump’s fiscal stewardship.

The US is still outperforming its competitors in global markets, but a rising dollar and the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected could change that
The View | In Hong Kong’s Central, the world’s most costly office market, landlords might have to come down to Earth

Sky-high rents, ageing building stock and a shake-out in the co-working sector have dimmed the attraction of Central, Admiralty and Sheung Wan for office tenants. Meanwhile, Kowloon accounted for a sizeable chunk of leasing volume in the last quarter.

29 Apr 2019 - 10:17PM

Sky-high rents, ageing building stock and a shake-out in the co-working sector have dimmed the attraction of Central, Admiralty and Sheung Wan for office tenants. Meanwhile, Kowloon accounted for a sizeable chunk of leasing volume in the last quarter.

In Hong Kong’s Central, the world’s most costly office market, landlords might have to come down to Earth
Macroscope | US stocks are booming, volatility has collapsed and the Fed is dovish. Why do investors remain cautious?

Major asset classes have bounced back this year with the S&P 500 gaining 25 per cent from its low in December. However, equity funds in developed economies continue to suffer outflows, with global growth prospects, especially China, remaining a concern.

26 Apr 2019 - 1:45AM

Major asset classes have bounced back this year with the S&P 500 gaining 25 per cent from its low in December. However, equity funds in developed economies continue to suffer outflows, with global growth prospects, especially China, remaining a concern.

US stocks are booming, volatility has collapsed and the Fed is dovish. Why do investors remain cautious?
The View | Singaporean real estate investors are leading the Asian charge deeper into Europe as Chinese firms lie low

While China’s capital controls have dampened outbound investment, Singaporean investment firms are venturing beyond London and Paris in Europe, with acquisitions of property assets in Poland and Hungary. South Korean investors are following suit.

23 Apr 2019 - 9:05AM

While China’s capital controls have dampened outbound investment, Singaporean investment firms are venturing beyond London and Paris in Europe, with acquisitions of property assets in Poland and Hungary. South Korean investors are following suit.

Singaporean real estate investors are leading the Asian charge deeper into Europe as Chinese firms lie low
Macroscope | China’s economic rebound is helping Europe, but not as much as Italy, France, Germany and Brexit are hurting it

China’s first-quarter GDP figures have helped fuel market rallies and some investors see opportunity in unloved European stocks, but home-grown problems will severely limit their upside, and that of the euro-zone economy in general.

18 Apr 2019 - 10:22PM

China’s first-quarter GDP figures have helped fuel market rallies and some investors see opportunity in unloved European stocks, but home-grown problems will severely limit their upside, and that of the euro-zone economy in general.

China’s economic rebound is helping Europe, but not as much as Italy, France, Germany and Brexit are hurting it
The View | Cutthroat competition in China’s co-working office sector will see a survival of the largest

The fact China’s largest home-grown provider of shared workspace, Ucommune, succeeded in winning fresh backing amid a funding crunch is yet another sign that consolidation is under way and more of the smaller players are set to fail.

15 Apr 2019 - 10:24PM

The fact China’s largest home-grown provider of shared workspace, Ucommune, succeeded in winning fresh backing amid a funding crunch is yet another sign that consolidation is under way and more of the smaller players are set to fail.

Cutthroat competition in China’s co-working office sector will see a survival of the largest
Macroscope | Why Brexit has been but a blip in financial markets

Despite the worries of a no-deal Brexit, narrowly averted this week by a deadline extension, fund managers tend to see it as an idiosyncratic risk that’s potentially less damaging than systemic threats, such as the US-China trade war.

11 Apr 2019 - 10:36PM

Despite the worries of a no-deal Brexit, narrowly averted this week by a deadline extension, fund managers tend to see it as an idiosyncratic risk that’s potentially less damaging than systemic threats, such as the US-China trade war.

Why Brexit has been but a blip in financial markets
The View | Slowdown in Australia’s property market won’t dampen Chinese investor interest

Not only is the market correction happening in a fundamentally strong economy, but Chinese developers’ established presence in Australia and Chinese people’s favourable sentiment towards the country will ensure the appeal of Australian property endures.

9 Apr 2019 - 6:07AM

Not only is the market correction happening in a fundamentally strong economy, but Chinese developers’ established presence in Australia and Chinese people’s favourable sentiment towards the country will ensure the appeal of Australian property endures.

Slowdown in Australia’s property market won’t dampen Chinese investor interest
Opinion | The US dollar will continue its triumphant run – unless central banks and the American economy change course

As long as the US economy continues to outperform its peers and other central banks take a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve, the dollar will continue to remain strong

4 Apr 2019 - 10:17PM

As long as the US economy continues to outperform its peers and other central banks take a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve, the dollar will continue to remain strong

The US dollar will continue its triumphant run – unless central banks and the American economy change course
Opinion | Why the US is not slipping into a recession, despite the inverted Treasury yield curve

While an inverted yield curve could be taken as a sign that a recession is in the offing, US manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment remain robust. The inversion in US yields is actually a by-product of excessively low yields in Europe and Japan.

28 Mar 2019 - 8:11PM

While an inverted yield curve could be taken as a sign that a recession is in the offing, US manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment remain robust. The inversion in US yields is actually a by-product of excessively low yields in Europe and Japan.

Why the US is not slipping into a recession, despite the inverted Treasury yield curve
The View | Flush with Asian cash, the London office market looks Brexit-proof – for now at least

Central London was the hottest office market last year, even with a hard Brexit looming. Despite capital controls in China, Asian buyers accounted for nearly 40 per cent of investments and dominate the £1-billion-plus segment of the market.

25 Mar 2019 - 10:22PM

Central London was the hottest office market last year, even with a hard Brexit looming. Despite capital controls in China, Asian buyers accounted for nearly 40 per cent of investments and dominate the £1-billion-plus segment of the market.

Flush with Asian cash, the London office market looks Brexit-proof – for now at least
Opinion | With market turbulence subsiding into a rolling bear market, are investors being complacent? Not quite

While risks such as Brexit, the trade war and slowdowns in China and the euro zone persist, there are grounds for optimism, such as accommodative policy regimes in the world’s two largest economies.

21 Mar 2019 - 10:22PM

While risks such as Brexit, the trade war and slowdowns in China and the euro zone persist, there are grounds for optimism, such as accommodative policy regimes in the world’s two largest economies.

With market turbulence subsiding into a rolling bear market, are investors being complacent? Not quite
The View | In global property investments, Singapore and others are stepping in where China left off

The days when Chinese investors top the list of outbound real estate investments worldwide are truly over, a consequence of Beijing’s clampdown on financial risk.

18 Mar 2019 - 10:27PM

The days when Chinese investors top the list of outbound real estate investments worldwide are truly over, a consequence of Beijing’s clampdown on financial risk.

In global property investments, Singapore and others are stepping in where China left off
Macroscope | Slowdowns in advanced economies have pushed investors to put money back into emerging markets – and ignore warnings

The hunt for high returns amid sluggish results for advanced economies has pushed investors into emerging markets, including exceedingly risky ones.

14 Mar 2019 - 3:30PM

The hunt for high returns amid sluggish results for advanced economies has pushed investors into emerging markets, including exceedingly risky ones.

Slowdowns in advanced economies have pushed investors to put money back into emerging markets – and ignore warnings
The View | In Hong Kong’s trade-war-proof office rental market, it makes sense for companies to go east

Rents in the office market remain sky-high, and companies are fleeing to Hong Kong East and Kowloon East. Although rental growth in Kowloon East has risen as a result, the district should still be more cost-effective than Central.

11 Mar 2019 - 10:26PM

Rents in the office market remain sky-high, and companies are fleeing to Hong Kong East and Kowloon East. Although rental growth in Kowloon East has risen as a result, the district should still be more cost-effective than Central.

In Hong Kong’s trade-war-proof office rental market, it makes sense for companies to go east
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s sudden eagerness for a trade deal has lifted Chinese markets

More than Beijing’s stimulus measures or a dovish Fed, it has been the US president’s need for a political win that has spurred a rally in China’s stock markets. This, however, may not last

7 Mar 2019 - 10:26PM

More than Beijing’s stimulus measures or a dovish Fed, it has been the US president’s need for a political win that has spurred a rally in China’s stock markets. This, however, may not last

Donald Trump’s sudden eagerness for a trade deal has lifted Chinese markets
The View | Mainland buyers facing stiffer competition from South Korean and Singaporean investors for property abroad

Since Beijing restricted capital outflows in 2017, mainland investors have sharply retreated from overseas properties, opening the door for other buyers. Hong Kong, however, remains the destination of choice for mainland outbound investment.

4 Mar 2019 - 10:25PM

Since Beijing restricted capital outflows in 2017, mainland investors have sharply retreated from overseas properties, opening the door for other buyers. Hong Kong, however, remains the destination of choice for mainland outbound investment.

Mainland buyers facing stiffer competition from South Korean and Singaporean investors for property abroad
Macroscope | Global equities’ sudden surge follows a steep December drop-off, and both are overreactions

Don’t count on 2019’s across-the-board rally in equities to last – the rebound has been driven by temporary optimism over trade talks and a less hawkish Fed.

1 Mar 2019 - 4:30AM

Don’t count on 2019’s across-the-board rally in equities to last – the rebound has been driven by temporary optimism over trade talks and a less hawkish Fed.

Global equities’ sudden surge follows a steep December drop-off, and both are overreactions
The View | China’s commercial property market is thriving even as residential property lags and the overall economy slows

Foreign investment drove the growth in China’s commercial property in 2018, and domestic buyers look likely to join in the trend in 2019.

25 Feb 2019 - 10:27PM

Foreign investment drove the growth in China’s commercial property in 2018, and domestic buyers look likely to join in the trend in 2019.

China’s commercial property market is thriving even as residential property lags and the overall economy slows
Macroscope | Economies in China and Europe are faltering. But where is the US economy heading?

While growth in China and the euro zone is clearly slowing down, worrying investors, the markets are much less certain about the state of the US economy. Indicators point in different directions, and even the Fed appears unsure.

21 Feb 2019 - 11:51PM

While growth in China and the euro zone is clearly slowing down, worrying investors, the markets are much less certain about the state of the US economy. Indicators point in different directions, and even the Fed appears unsure.

Economies in China and Europe are faltering. But where is the US economy heading?
Macroscope | Dovish Federal Reserve policy spurs a rally, including in Chinese real estate, but it’s probably just a bubble

Investors went overboard in selling off last year and are overcorrecting after a Fed policy shift, but weak fundamentals suggest the rally in Chinese stocks can’t be sustained.

14 Feb 2019 - 10:22PM

Investors went overboard in selling off last year and are overcorrecting after a Fed policy shift, but weak fundamentals suggest the rally in Chinese stocks can’t be sustained.

Dovish Federal Reserve policy spurs a rally, including in Chinese real estate, but it’s probably just a bubble
The View | As central banks turn dovish, how loose will this year’s monetary policy be?

The Federal Reserve’s more cautious stance towards raising interest rates has set the pace for other central banks. However, while the US economy may be showing signs of slowing, China and Europe are of greater concern.

11 Feb 2019 - 10:24PM

The Federal Reserve’s more cautious stance towards raising interest rates has set the pace for other central banks. However, while the US economy may be showing signs of slowing, China and Europe are of greater concern.

As central banks turn dovish, how loose will this year’s monetary policy be?
Macroscope | When the Fed is worried about China, it’s no time to get carried away by Sino-US trade talks

The bond market, where the smart money is, thinks the newly dovish Fed is too optimistic about US growth. Meanwhile, 2019 is starting to look like 2016, when China’s softening economy caused concern among US policymakers.

7 Feb 2019 - 10:21PM

The bond market, where the smart money is, thinks the newly dovish Fed is too optimistic about US growth. Meanwhile, 2019 is starting to look like 2016, when China’s softening economy caused concern among US policymakers.

When the Fed is worried about China, it’s no time to get carried away by Sino-US trade talks
Macroscope | The Federal Reserve’s worrying slide from villain to pushover

The rise of populism and protectionism has made central banks’ jobs a lot harder. US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has just signalled a dovish tilt, and is being accused of caving in to financial markets.

1 Feb 2019 - 8:24AM

The rise of populism and protectionism has made central banks’ jobs a lot harder. US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has just signalled a dovish tilt, and is being accused of caving in to financial markets.

The Federal Reserve’s worrying slide from villain to pushover
The View | Why China’s economic policies are less of a concern than those of the Fed and European Central Bank

Investors’ belief that Beijing is set to further stimulate the economy is not entirely misplaced. Meanwhile, the ECB has been slow to react to signs of trouble in Europe, leaving big questions over its tightening policy.

28 Jan 2019 - 10:32PM

Investors’ belief that Beijing is set to further stimulate the economy is not entirely misplaced. Meanwhile, the ECB has been slow to react to signs of trouble in Europe, leaving big questions over its tightening policy.

Why China’s economic policies are less of a concern than those of the Fed and European Central Bank