Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.

Latest from Nicholas Spiro

Macroscope | Tale of three economies: coronavirus pandemic spells end of synchronised global growth

While China is leading the global economy out of the crisis, Europe, which appeared for a while to have suppressed the virus, is now facing a double-dip recession. Meanwhile, the US presidential election remains the biggest wild card for markets and the global economy.

23 Oct 2020 - 1:30AM

While China is leading the global economy out of the crisis, Europe, which appeared for a while to have suppressed the virus, is now facing a double-dip recession. Meanwhile, the US presidential election remains the biggest wild card for markets and the global economy.

Tale of three economies: coronavirus pandemic spells end of synchronised global growth
The View | Why Hong Kong’s office market is having a better pandemic than its residential property sector

The resilience of Hong Kong’s housing prices is the result of low interest rates and masks its fundamental problem of a lack of affordable housing. Covid-19 stimulus money is inflating home values without providing a foundation for recovery.

19 Oct 2020 - 4:30PM

The resilience of Hong Kong’s housing prices is the result of low interest rates and masks its fundamental problem of a lack of affordable housing. Covid-19 stimulus money is inflating home values without providing a foundation for recovery.

Why Hong Kong’s office market is having a better pandemic than its residential property sector
Macroscope | From stocks to bonds, markets may again be misreading the US election. Hedge your bets

In a little over a fortnight, markets have gone from pricing in a messy election to betting that the Democrats will sweep to power. Investors should be careful what they wish for. A ‘blue wave’ could make a growth-sapping agenda more likely.

16 Oct 2020 - 5:32AM

In a little over a fortnight, markets have gone from pricing in a messy election to betting that the Democrats will sweep to power. Investors should be careful what they wish for. A ‘blue wave’ could make a growth-sapping agenda more likely.

From stocks to bonds, markets may again be misreading the US election. Hedge your bets
The View | As Australia battles the coronavirus, property investors should go west

The combination of a China-fuelled recovery, relatively strong fundamentals and attractive pricing bodes well for Perth’s office sector. The city’s residential market has also been more resilient than Sydney’s and Melbourne’s.

12 Oct 2020 - 10:30PM

The combination of a China-fuelled recovery, relatively strong fundamentals and attractive pricing bodes well for Perth’s office sector. The city’s residential market has also been more resilient than Sydney’s and Melbourne’s.

As Australia battles the coronavirus, property investors should go west
Macroscope | Amid stock market volatility, where are the safe havens when traditional sanctuaries are proving ineffective?

With government bonds, sanctuary currencies and gold providing scant protection against declines in stocks, emerging market bonds are proving attractive. Investors should also consider the protection offered by assets benefiting from central bank support.

8 Oct 2020 - 3:30PM

With government bonds, sanctuary currencies and gold providing scant protection against declines in stocks, emerging market bonds are proving attractive. Investors should also consider the protection offered by assets benefiting from central bank support.

Amid stock market volatility, where are the safe havens when traditional sanctuaries are proving ineffective?
Macroscope | Trump-Biden contest: US dollar rebound indicates investors expect a disputed election outcome

Futures contracts are pricing in an unusually high level of anxiety in the months after the November 3 election, suggesting traders are worried about the possibility of a constitutional crisis.

17 Oct 2020 - 7:11AM

Futures contracts are pricing in an unusually high level of anxiety in the months after the November 3 election, suggesting traders are worried about the possibility of a constitutional crisis.

Trump-Biden contest: US dollar rebound indicates investors expect a disputed election outcome
Opinion | Japan property market a rare source of stability amid coronavirus

The pandemic has accentuated the appeal of Japan’s property market and revealed some of the misconceptions about Asia’s largest real estate investment market. While fears of Japan’s economic malaise spreading globally have intensified, the country’s real estate investment market has outperformed its regional peers.

28 Sep 2020 - 10:19PM

The pandemic has accentuated the appeal of Japan’s property market and revealed some of the misconceptions about Asia’s largest real estate investment market. While fears of Japan’s economic malaise spreading globally have intensified, the country’s real estate investment market has outperformed its regional peers.

Japan property market a rare source of stability amid coronavirus
Macroscope | Three reasons big tech will remain the safest bet in a post-Covid-19 world

Not only is the interest rate and liquidity landscape today starkly different from March 2000, the rally in tech stocks is justifiable, given that these companies are highly profitable and their business models are ideally suited to the pandemic.

25 Sep 2020 - 2:29AM

Not only is the interest rate and liquidity landscape today starkly different from March 2000, the rally in tech stocks is justifiable, given that these companies are highly profitable and their business models are ideally suited to the pandemic.

Three reasons big tech will remain the safest bet in a post-Covid-19 world
The View | Asian property stocks retain their allure, despite the coronavirus pandemic

In Asia, a diverse and liquid property market allows equity investors to bet on different trends that have emerged during the pandemic. The challenge for investors in countries with mature Reit regimes is making the right bet on the right property sector at the right time.

22 Sep 2020 - 4:00AM

In Asia, a diverse and liquid property market allows equity investors to bet on different trends that have emerged during the pandemic. The challenge for investors in countries with mature Reit regimes is making the right bet on the right property sector at the right time.

Asian property stocks retain their allure, despite the coronavirus pandemic
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: vaccine scepticism poses a threat to stock markets

While policymakers are loathe to reimpose nationwide lockdowns, investors downplay the threat of Covid-19 at their peril. Markets are underpricing risks of new lockdowns in major economies, and assuming that a vaccine will end economic disruption looks increasingly shaky.

13 Oct 2020 - 9:08PM

While policymakers are loathe to reimpose nationwide lockdowns, investors downplay the threat of Covid-19 at their peril. Markets are underpricing risks of new lockdowns in major economies, and assuming that a vaccine will end economic disruption looks increasingly shaky.

Coronavirus recovery: vaccine scepticism poses a threat to stock markets
The View | Four reasons Hong Kong’s office property market will emerge stronger from the current crisis

The successive shocks that Hong Kong’s real estate markets have suffered are sowing the seeds of a recovery that will benefit from healthier occupier fundamentals. In addition, the flurry of Hong Kong share offerings of US-listed Chinese firms provides hope for the office sector.

15 Sep 2020 - 5:45AM

The successive shocks that Hong Kong’s real estate markets have suffered are sowing the seeds of a recovery that will benefit from healthier occupier fundamentals. In addition, the flurry of Hong Kong share offerings of US-listed Chinese firms provides hope for the office sector.

Four reasons Hong Kong’s office property market will emerge stronger from the current crisis
Macroscope | Markets got the US election and Brexit wrong in 2016 and are none the wiser in 2020

‘Soft’ issues like social cohesion have become critical to political and economic stability but are hard to gauge, let alone price. Yet this has not stopped investors becoming amateur political scientists in the hope of making a profit.

11 Sep 2020 - 2:27AM

‘Soft’ issues like social cohesion have become critical to political and economic stability but are hard to gauge, let alone price. Yet this has not stopped investors becoming amateur political scientists in the hope of making a profit.

Markets got the US election and Brexit wrong in 2016 and are none the wiser in 2020
Macroscope | Abe is leaving office, but Abenomics is here to stay

The need for aggressive monetary easing, the most radical of Abe’s ‘three arrows’, was appreciated by the Fed and ECB even before Covid-19 struck. Given a boost by the pandemic, Abe’s experiment is now the norm in the world’s major economies.

4 Sep 2020 - 9:45AM

The need for aggressive monetary easing, the most radical of Abe’s ‘three arrows’, was appreciated by the Fed and ECB even before Covid-19 struck. Given a boost by the pandemic, Abe’s experiment is now the norm in the world’s major economies.

Abe is leaving office, but Abenomics is here to stay
Macroscope | Why China deserves more credit for recovery in global markets

Beijing has largely eschewed the Western playbook of monetary easing and relied on the banks instead to increase liquidity. Its efforts support a rebound in industrial activity that is stabilising the commodities markets and shoring up asset prices.

28 Aug 2020 - 3:56AM

Beijing has largely eschewed the Western playbook of monetary easing and relied on the banks instead to increase liquidity. Its efforts support a rebound in industrial activity that is stabilising the commodities markets and shoring up asset prices.

Why China deserves more credit for recovery in global markets
The View | Why China’s commercial property market’s resilience amid the coronavirus pandemic shouldn’t be taken at face value

Transaction volumes in China’s property market doubled year on year in the second quarter, raising questions about a hot investment market that shows no signs of adjusting to the severity of the Covid-19 shock.

25 Aug 2020 - 9:55AM

Transaction volumes in China’s property market doubled year on year in the second quarter, raising questions about a hot investment market that shows no signs of adjusting to the severity of the Covid-19 shock.

Why China’s commercial property market’s resilience amid the coronavirus pandemic shouldn’t be taken at face value
Macroscope | Why Donald Trump vs Joe Biden in US election should keep investors on their toes

The twists and turns so far of the divisive contest, amid a global pandemic and widespread economic pain, may not yet be reflected in buoyant financial markets. But the risks should not be so easily dismissed.

17 Oct 2020 - 7:10AM

The twists and turns so far of the divisive contest, amid a global pandemic and widespread economic pain, may not yet be reflected in buoyant financial markets. But the risks should not be so easily dismissed.

Why Donald Trump vs Joe Biden in US election should keep investors on their toes
The View | Three reasons demand for Asian logistics real estate is soaring – and why investors should be cautious

The growing interest in the industrial real estate sector is part of a existing trend that has been boosted by the coronavirus. The danger is investors could become too enamoured of the sector’s e-commerce-driven tailwinds, leading to indiscriminate buying.

17 Aug 2020 - 10:37PM

The growing interest in the industrial real estate sector is part of a existing trend that has been boosted by the coronavirus. The danger is investors could become too enamoured of the sector’s e-commerce-driven tailwinds, leading to indiscriminate buying.

Three reasons demand for Asian logistics real estate is soaring – and why investors should be cautious
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: why the market rally makes perfect sense – but is likely to end in tears

Arguments that the rally in stocks is built on weak foundations do not hold water, given the extraordinary measures taken around the world. The biggest risk is not that investors are complacent or irrational but, rather, the wave of global liquidity driving asset prices.

14 Aug 2020 - 12:45AM

Arguments that the rally in stocks is built on weak foundations do not hold water, given the extraordinary measures taken around the world. The biggest risk is not that investors are complacent or irrational but, rather, the wave of global liquidity driving asset prices.

Coronavirus recovery: why the market rally makes perfect sense – but is likely to end in tears
The View | Death of the office? In Asia, the workplace is just adapting to the Covid-19 disruption

In Hong Kong, many office workers live in small spaces, which makes it more difficult to carve out working environments at home. Asia in general is more likely to rethink the workplace rather than do away with it.

11 Aug 2020 - 9:46AM

In Hong Kong, many office workers live in small spaces, which makes it more difficult to carve out working environments at home. Asia in general is more likely to rethink the workplace rather than do away with it.

Death of the office? In Asia, the workplace is just adapting to the Covid-19 disruption
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: emerging markets facing toughest test yet in pandemic

The pandemic has forced central banks to cut interest rates aggressively, and the whiff of a fiscal crisis hangs over several major developing economies. Even China’s impressive rebound is being questioned, given the severity of the global recession and the resurgence of Covid-19.

6 Aug 2020 - 10:23PM

The pandemic has forced central banks to cut interest rates aggressively, and the whiff of a fiscal crisis hangs over several major developing economies. Even China’s impressive rebound is being questioned, given the severity of the global recession and the resurgence of Covid-19.

Coronavirus recovery: emerging markets facing toughest test yet in pandemic
The View | Asia’s coronavirus-battered hotel industry poised for a rally once curbs on travel end

Many properties have had to cease operations for several months, with demand likely to remain weak for at least the next year. Even so, while hotels are viewed as a more volatile asset class by investors, tourism is likely to rebound quickly once travel restrictions are lifted.

4 Aug 2020 - 10:18AM

Many properties have had to cease operations for several months, with demand likely to remain weak for at least the next year. Even so, while hotels are viewed as a more volatile asset class by investors, tourism is likely to rebound quickly once travel restrictions are lifted.

Asia’s coronavirus-battered hotel industry poised for a rally once curbs on travel end
Macroscope | How coronavirus stimulus and China tensions are battering the US dollar’s global dominance

The pandemic has unleashed a torrent of forces that are undermining sentiment towards the United States, dealing a severe blow to US ‘exceptionalism’ in markets. Earlier predictions of the dollar’s demise as the world’s reserve currency were off the mark, though.

13 Oct 2020 - 9:08PM

The pandemic has unleashed a torrent of forces that are undermining sentiment towards the United States, dealing a severe blow to US ‘exceptionalism’ in markets. Earlier predictions of the dollar’s demise as the world’s reserve currency were off the mark, though.

How coronavirus stimulus and China tensions are battering the US dollar’s global dominance
Macroscope | EU’s Covid-19 recovery deal is a cause for celebration, but check the fine print

Market enthusiasm over the stimulus plan comes at a time economies in Europe seem to be reopening more successfully than the US. But the EU’s recovery fund, while a step towards fiscal integration, raises more questions than it answers.

24 Jul 2020 - 4:20AM

Market enthusiasm over the stimulus plan comes at a time economies in Europe seem to be reopening more successfully than the US. But the EU’s recovery fund, while a step towards fiscal integration, raises more questions than it answers.

EU’s Covid-19 recovery deal is a cause for celebration, but check the fine print
The View | Why the coronavirus pandemic will turbocharge investment in data centres

The turn to digital infrastructure during the Covid-19 pandemic has boosted the existing boom in investor interest in data centres. Given that data centres are capital-intensive and require significant technical expertise, investors could consider investing directly in the operating company itself

20 Jul 2020 - 10:43PM

The turn to digital infrastructure during the Covid-19 pandemic has boosted the existing boom in investor interest in data centres. Given that data centres are capital-intensive and require significant technical expertise, investors could consider investing directly in the operating company itself

Why the coronavirus pandemic will turbocharge investment in data centres
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: hedging and market volatility show flaws in bullish narrative

While equity markets hail a rebound in economic activity and tech sector resilience, bond markets fear a severe Covid-19 shock driven by a spike in infections. If markets were really confident about the strength of the rise in economic activity, investors would not be hedging so aggressively against further turmoil.

17 Jul 2020 - 5:06AM

While equity markets hail a rebound in economic activity and tech sector resilience, bond markets fear a severe Covid-19 shock driven by a spike in infections. If markets were really confident about the strength of the rise in economic activity, investors would not be hedging so aggressively against further turmoil.

Coronavirus recovery: hedging and market volatility show flaws in bullish narrative
The View | Expecting Asia-Pacific commercial property prices to drop significantly? Don’t hold your breath

Although the drop in prices has been negligible, Asian commercial property still offers investors attractive returns compared with other asset classes.

14 Jul 2020 - 5:30AM

Although the drop in prices has been negligible, Asian commercial property still offers investors attractive returns compared with other asset classes.

Expecting Asia-Pacific commercial property prices to drop significantly? Don’t hold your breath
Macroscope | Has the coronavirus-hit global economy seen the worst of the crisis? It’s too early to tell

While the stock market and business surveys point to a rebound, the improvement in economic data is rooted in the steep contractions in output earlier this year. Markets seems to be conflating the stronger-than-expected rebound with a smooth recovery.

10 Jul 2020 - 2:36AM

While the stock market and business surveys point to a rebound, the improvement in economic data is rooted in the steep contractions in output earlier this year. Markets seems to be conflating the stronger-than-expected rebound with a smooth recovery.

Has the coronavirus-hit global economy seen the worst of the crisis? It’s too early to tell
Opinion | National security law is unlikely to spark a surge in UK property investment among Hongkongers

While London will remain a favourite for Hong Kong investors, their appetite for deals will be determined by how the UK property market adjusts to Covid-19 rather than political developments, and expectations of a sudden investment surge are overblown.

7 Jul 2020 - 2:54AM

While London will remain a favourite for Hong Kong investors, their appetite for deals will be determined by how the UK property market adjusts to Covid-19 rather than political developments, and expectations of a sudden investment surge are overblown.

National security law is unlikely to spark a surge in UK property investment among Hongkongers
Macroscope | Coronavirus infection numbers take a back seat as optimism drives markets

The fallout from Covid-19 is still a source of anxiety, but investors are drawing comfort from central banks’ massive liquidity injections and signs of US economic recovery. However, the resurgence of the virus in some parts of the US should not be ignored.

3 Jul 2020 - 3:39AM

The fallout from Covid-19 is still a source of anxiety, but investors are drawing comfort from central banks’ massive liquidity injections and signs of US economic recovery. However, the resurgence of the virus in some parts of the US should not be ignored.

Coronavirus infection numbers take a back seat as optimism drives markets
The View | Why coronavirus pandemic is now viewed as a positive development by financial markets

Despite the WHO posting the largest number of new cases on June 21, market sentiment has remained buoyant, convinced of Federal Reserve support and that the second wave of Covid-19 will be less severe.

26 Jun 2020 - 5:26AM

Despite the WHO posting the largest number of new cases on June 21, market sentiment has remained buoyant, convinced of Federal Reserve support and that the second wave of Covid-19 will be less severe.

Why coronavirus pandemic is now viewed as a positive development by financial markets