Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory.
Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory.

Latest from Nicholas Spiro

The View | In global property investments, Singapore and others are stepping in where China left off

The days when Chinese investors top the list of outbound real estate investments worldwide are truly over, a consequence of Beijing’s clampdown on financial risk.

18 Mar 2019 - 10:27PM

The days when Chinese investors top the list of outbound real estate investments worldwide are truly over, a consequence of Beijing’s clampdown on financial risk.

In global property investments, Singapore and others are stepping in where China left off
Macroscope | Slowdowns in advanced economies have pushed investors to put money back into emerging markets – and ignore warnings

The hunt for high returns amid sluggish results for advanced economies has pushed investors into emerging markets, including exceedingly risky ones.

14 Mar 2019 - 3:30PM

The hunt for high returns amid sluggish results for advanced economies has pushed investors into emerging markets, including exceedingly risky ones.

Slowdowns in advanced economies have pushed investors to put money back into emerging markets – and ignore warnings
The View | In Hong Kong’s trade-war-proof office rental market, it makes sense for companies to go east

Rents in the office market remain sky-high, and companies are fleeing to Hong Kong East and Kowloon East. Although rental growth in Kowloon East has risen as a result, the district should still be more cost-effective than Central.

11 Mar 2019 - 10:26PM

Rents in the office market remain sky-high, and companies are fleeing to Hong Kong East and Kowloon East. Although rental growth in Kowloon East has risen as a result, the district should still be more cost-effective than Central.

In Hong Kong’s trade-war-proof office rental market, it makes sense for companies to go east
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s sudden eagerness for a trade deal has lifted Chinese markets

More than Beijing’s stimulus measures or a dovish Fed, it has been the US president’s need for a political win that has spurred a rally in China’s stock markets. This, however, may not last

7 Mar 2019 - 10:26PM

More than Beijing’s stimulus measures or a dovish Fed, it has been the US president’s need for a political win that has spurred a rally in China’s stock markets. This, however, may not last

Donald Trump’s sudden eagerness for a trade deal has lifted Chinese markets
The View | Mainland buyers facing stiffer competition from South Korean and Singaporean investors for property abroad

Since Beijing restricted capital outflows in 2017, mainland investors have sharply retreated from overseas properties, opening the door for other buyers. Hong Kong, however, remains the destination of choice for mainland outbound investment.

4 Mar 2019 - 10:25PM

Since Beijing restricted capital outflows in 2017, mainland investors have sharply retreated from overseas properties, opening the door for other buyers. Hong Kong, however, remains the destination of choice for mainland outbound investment.

Mainland buyers facing stiffer competition from South Korean and Singaporean investors for property abroad
Macroscope | Global equities’ sudden surge follows a steep December drop-off, and both are overreactions

Don’t count on 2019’s across-the-board rally in equities to last – the rebound has been driven by temporary optimism over trade talks and a less hawkish Fed.

1 Mar 2019 - 4:30AM

Don’t count on 2019’s across-the-board rally in equities to last – the rebound has been driven by temporary optimism over trade talks and a less hawkish Fed.

Global equities’ sudden surge follows a steep December drop-off, and both are overreactions
The View | China’s commercial property market is thriving even as residential property lags and the overall economy slows

Foreign investment drove the growth in China’s commercial property in 2018, and domestic buyers look likely to join in the trend in 2019.

25 Feb 2019 - 10:27PM

Foreign investment drove the growth in China’s commercial property in 2018, and domestic buyers look likely to join in the trend in 2019.

China’s commercial property market is thriving even as residential property lags and the overall economy slows
Macroscope | Economies in China and Europe are faltering. But where is the US economy heading?

While growth in China and the euro zone is clearly slowing down, worrying investors, the markets are much less certain about the state of the US economy. Indicators point in different directions, and even the Fed appears unsure.

21 Feb 2019 - 11:51PM

While growth in China and the euro zone is clearly slowing down, worrying investors, the markets are much less certain about the state of the US economy. Indicators point in different directions, and even the Fed appears unsure.

Economies in China and Europe are faltering. But where is the US economy heading?
Macroscope | Dovish Federal Reserve policy spurs a rally, including in Chinese real estate, but it’s probably just a bubble

Investors went overboard in selling off last year and are overcorrecting after a Fed policy shift, but weak fundamentals suggest the rally in Chinese stocks can’t be sustained.

14 Feb 2019 - 10:22PM

Investors went overboard in selling off last year and are overcorrecting after a Fed policy shift, but weak fundamentals suggest the rally in Chinese stocks can’t be sustained.

Dovish Federal Reserve policy spurs a rally, including in Chinese real estate, but it’s probably just a bubble
The View | As central banks turn dovish, how loose will this year’s monetary policy be?

The Federal Reserve’s more cautious stance towards raising interest rates has set the pace for other central banks. However, while the US economy may be showing signs of slowing, China and Europe are of greater concern.

11 Feb 2019 - 10:24PM

The Federal Reserve’s more cautious stance towards raising interest rates has set the pace for other central banks. However, while the US economy may be showing signs of slowing, China and Europe are of greater concern.

As central banks turn dovish, how loose will this year’s monetary policy be?
Macroscope | When the Fed is worried about China, it’s no time to get carried away by Sino-US trade talks

The bond market, where the smart money is, thinks the newly dovish Fed is too optimistic about US growth. Meanwhile, 2019 is starting to look like 2016, when China’s softening economy caused concern among US policymakers.

7 Feb 2019 - 10:21PM

The bond market, where the smart money is, thinks the newly dovish Fed is too optimistic about US growth. Meanwhile, 2019 is starting to look like 2016, when China’s softening economy caused concern among US policymakers.

When the Fed is worried about China, it’s no time to get carried away by Sino-US trade talks
Macroscope | The Federal Reserve’s worrying slide from villain to pushover

The rise of populism and protectionism has made central banks’ jobs a lot harder. US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has just signalled a dovish tilt, and is being accused of caving in to financial markets.

1 Feb 2019 - 8:24AM

The rise of populism and protectionism has made central banks’ jobs a lot harder. US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has just signalled a dovish tilt, and is being accused of caving in to financial markets.

The Federal Reserve’s worrying slide from villain to pushover
The View | Why China’s economic policies are less of a concern than those of the Fed and European Central Bank

Investors’ belief that Beijing is set to further stimulate the economy is not entirely misplaced. Meanwhile, the ECB has been slow to react to signs of trouble in Europe, leaving big questions over its tightening policy.

28 Jan 2019 - 10:32PM

Investors’ belief that Beijing is set to further stimulate the economy is not entirely misplaced. Meanwhile, the ECB has been slow to react to signs of trouble in Europe, leaving big questions over its tightening policy.

Why China’s economic policies are less of a concern than those of the Fed and European Central Bank
Macroscope | Why the emerging market rally may run out of steam despite a strong start to the year

Investors should pay attention to the slowdown in China’s economic growth, uncertainty over the outcome of trade negotiations and risks in US monetary policy before taking a bullish stance on developing economies.

24 Jan 2019 - 10:31PM

Investors should pay attention to the slowdown in China’s economic growth, uncertainty over the outcome of trade negotiations and risks in US monetary policy before taking a bullish stance on developing economies.

Why the emerging market rally may run out of steam despite a strong start to the year
The View | Donald Trump signals interest in a China trade truce, but it may already be too late for the global economy

The damage has been done: both the US and Chinese economies are slowing and the overall rift in relations will persist even if Trump backs down on tariffs.

22 Jan 2019 - 2:57PM

The damage has been done: both the US and Chinese economies are slowing and the overall rift in relations will persist even if Trump backs down on tariffs.

Donald Trump signals interest in a China trade truce, but it may already be too late for the global economy
Macroscope | Why the euro zone is a bigger worry than China’s economic slowdown

Anxiety about a global slowdown is building up in Germany and across Europe. Yet, when even Beijing is taking policy measures to support the Chinese economy, the European Central Bank is unwisely tightening its policy.

17 Jan 2019 - 10:18PM

Anxiety about a global slowdown is building up in Germany and across Europe. Yet, when even Beijing is taking policy measures to support the Chinese economy, the European Central Bank is unwisely tightening its policy.

Why the euro zone is a bigger worry than China’s economic slowdown
The View | China’s economy and Fed policies are again unsettling markets. But don’t expect a turnaround like in 2016

Now as then, concerns about the health of the global economy dominate, but the confluence of factors that stabilised, then lifted, the markets in 2016 is unlikely to come about this year.

14 Jan 2019 - 10:23PM

Now as then, concerns about the health of the global economy dominate, but the confluence of factors that stabilised, then lifted, the markets in 2016 is unlikely to come about this year.

China’s economy and Fed policies are again unsettling markets. But don’t expect a turnaround like in 2016
Macroscope | Recessions never happen when they’re expected, so investors should hold their nerve

Fears of a recession are mounting in the media and among investors, and such worries could be self-fulfilling if they ignore the data that is more encouraging.

10 Jan 2019 - 10:46PM

Fears of a recession are mounting in the media and among investors, and such worries could be self-fulfilling if they ignore the data that is more encouraging.

Recessions never happen when they’re expected, so investors should hold their nerve
The View | Why China’s slowdown is playing second fiddle to America’s volatile economy and markets

While China is understandably seen as the source of global financial market turmoil, the US economy may have investors more concerned.

7 Jan 2019 - 10:27PM

While China is understandably seen as the source of global financial market turmoil, the US economy may have investors more concerned.

Why China’s slowdown is playing second fiddle to America’s volatile economy and markets
Macroscope | Why emerging market bulls need to rein in their optimism

Investors are bearish about the US but increasingly bullish on emerging markets. But while the worst does seem to be over for emerging market stocks, they may only seem safer because Wall Street had a dreadful December

3 Jan 2019 - 10:26PM

Investors are bearish about the US but increasingly bullish on emerging markets. But while the worst does seem to be over for emerging market stocks, they may only seem safer because Wall Street had a dreadful December

Why emerging market bulls need to rein in their optimism
Macroscope | Christmas ups and downs on Wall Street: goodbye to the era of cheap money, hello to volatility?

US political risk is driving markets to such a degree that hopeful news about the Chinese economy failed to set off a rally. The danger is that the selling pressure might start to undermine confidence in the US economy.

27 Dec 2018 - 10:26PM

US political risk is driving markets to such a degree that hopeful news about the Chinese economy failed to set off a rally. The danger is that the selling pressure might start to undermine confidence in the US economy.

Christmas ups and downs on Wall Street: goodbye to the era of cheap money, hello to volatility?
Macroscope | Why Federal Reserve rate hikes and US market fundamentals should cheer bearish investors

The Federal Reserve’s determination to raise rates should be seen as a sign no recession is imminent, and the IMF’s predictions for 2019 are less bearish than investors’.

20 Dec 2018 - 10:24PM

The Federal Reserve’s determination to raise rates should be seen as a sign no recession is imminent, and the IMF’s predictions for 2019 are less bearish than investors’.

Why Federal Reserve rate hikes and US market fundamentals should cheer bearish investors
The View | The outlook for China’s economy is poor, but the smart money says there will be further stimulus measures

Bad news seems to be good news in China’s bond market. Weak economic data has fuelled a government bond rally – with foreign investors betting big on a forthcoming stimulus – even as the stock market suffers.

17 Dec 2018 - 10:36PM

Bad news seems to be good news in China’s bond market. Weak economic data has fuelled a government bond rally – with foreign investors betting big on a forthcoming stimulus – even as the stock market suffers.

The outlook for China’s economy is poor, but the smart money says there will be further stimulus measures
Macroscope | Why central bank chiefs will have to brace for an onslaught of populist political attacks

While the resignation of the Reserve Bank of India governor has shocked markets, the European Central Bank is likely to see the next intense clash between populism and monetary policy.

13 Dec 2018 - 10:32PM

While the resignation of the Reserve Bank of India governor has shocked markets, the European Central Bank is likely to see the next intense clash between populism and monetary policy.

Why central bank chiefs will have to brace for an onslaught of populist political attacks
The View | Don’t blame flimsy trade war truce – exposed by Huawei arrest – or the Fed for market turbulence. Instead, look to China’s economic woes

Doubts about China’s economy, as well as Beijing’s confused response to the slowdown, are the real source of investor anxiety, not recent developments.

11 Dec 2018 - 10:06PM

Doubts about China’s economy, as well as Beijing’s confused response to the slowdown, are the real source of investor anxiety, not recent developments.

Don’t blame flimsy trade war truce – exposed by Huawei arrest – or the Fed for market turbulence. Instead, look to China’s economic woes
Macroscope | Federal Reserve rates, China’s balancing act and Europe’s sluggishness all point to the global growth scare getting scarier in 2019

Investors have been heartened by recent news from Italy, the Fed and the trade truce. But US interest rates will keep rising unless the economy shows signs of slowing, while the overall outlook for Europe is gloomy.

6 Dec 2018 - 10:21PM

Investors have been heartened by recent news from Italy, the Fed and the trade truce. But US interest rates will keep rising unless the economy shows signs of slowing, while the overall outlook for Europe is gloomy.

Federal Reserve rates, China’s balancing act and Europe’s sluggishness all point to the global growth scare getting scarier in 2019
The View | Don’t read too much into the Hang Seng Index’s remarkable November comeback

Hong Kong’s benchmark index has made a dramatic recovery, ahead of a cooling-off period in the trade war. But uncertainties loom in both the US and Chinese economies, to which the index is tightly linked.

3 Dec 2018 - 10:27PM

Hong Kong’s benchmark index has made a dramatic recovery, ahead of a cooling-off period in the trade war. But uncertainties loom in both the US and Chinese economies, to which the index is tightly linked.

Don’t read too much into the Hang Seng Index’s remarkable November comeback
Macroscope | Why investors are turning to 3-month Treasury bills and other cash assets over the hunt for yield

Having suffered heavy losses in emerging markets, global equities and US corporate bonds, investors are turning to money market instruments such as 3-month Treasury bills.

29 Nov 2018 - 10:24PM

Having suffered heavy losses in emerging markets, global equities and US corporate bonds, investors are turning to money market instruments such as 3-month Treasury bills.

Why investors are turning to 3-month Treasury bills and other cash assets over the hunt for yield
The View | Even if Trump and Xi make up at G20 in Buenos Aires, don’t hold your breath for a meaningful market rally

The declines across asset classes indicates that trade tariffs are just one of the factors depressing investor sentiment.

26 Nov 2018 - 10:40PM

The declines across asset classes indicates that trade tariffs are just one of the factors depressing investor sentiment.

Even if Trump and Xi make up at G20 in Buenos Aires, don’t hold your breath for a meaningful market rally
Macroscope | Investors may expect the Fed to blink as the economic outlook darkens. It won’t

Recent falls in the US dollar and bond yield reveal markets are – again – reading too much into statements by central bankers. Despite the stock stumbles and signs of a slowing economy, there are more reasons for the Fed to keep up its interest rate hikes than reverse course.

22 Nov 2018 - 10:22PM

Recent falls in the US dollar and bond yield reveal markets are – again – reading too much into statements by central bankers. Despite the stock stumbles and signs of a slowing economy, there are more reasons for the Fed to keep up its interest rate hikes than reverse course.

Investors may expect the Fed to blink as the economic outlook darkens. It won’t
CommentBusiness