Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.

Latest from Nicholas Spiro

The View | Why Asian capital is chasing real estate assets in the US and UK

Asian outbound property investment has recovered strongly in the first half of the year. Despite the pandemic, student housing and retail are among the Western assets that are attracting Asian money.

Asian outbound property investment has recovered strongly in the first half of the year. Despite the pandemic, student housing and retail are among the Western assets that are attracting Asian money.

Why Asian capital is chasing real estate assets in the US and UK
18 Oct 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Markets’ calm over Evergrande debt crisis could be a double-edged sword

Investors seem to expect Beijing to ease its curbs on the property sector to head off contagion and damage to China’s economy. With most of China’s debt held at home and few signs of spreading contagion, though, Beijing has a strong incentive to keep turning the screw.

Investors seem to expect Beijing to ease its curbs on the property sector to head off contagion and damage to China’s economy. With most of China’s debt held at home and few signs of spreading contagion, though, Beijing has a strong incentive to keep turning the screw.

Markets’ calm over Evergrande debt crisis could be a double-edged sword
15 Oct 2021 - 8:45AM
The View | Singapore’s resilient real estate market is acing the pandemic test

In Asia, Singapore has performed significantly better than its peers, coming out of the crisis even stronger in certain areas of the property industry. Examples of the appeal of the nation’s property sector include the booming residential market and strong grade A office rents.

In Asia, Singapore has performed significantly better than its peers, coming out of the crisis even stronger in certain areas of the property industry. Examples of the appeal of the nation’s property sector include the booming residential market and strong grade A office rents.

Singapore’s resilient real estate market is acing the pandemic test
11 Oct 2021 - 5:30PM
Macroscope | Why Asia’s emerging markets are best placed to cope with stagflation fears

To be sure, developing Asia has been hit hard by Covid-19 Delta outbreaks. Yet, none of the central banks has been forced to hike rates to tame inflation. Moreover, they have more inflation-fighting credibility than a decade ago.

To be sure, developing Asia has been hit hard by Covid-19 Delta outbreaks. Yet, none of the central banks has been forced to hike rates to tame inflation. Moreover, they have more inflation-fighting credibility than a decade ago.

Why Asia’s emerging markets are best placed to cope with stagflation fears
8 Oct 2021 - 2:08AM
The View | Evergrande crisis and China’s economic risks add to Hong Kong commercial property market’s wall of worry

For Hong Kong, the Evergrande crisis and heightened risks on the mainland are the latest threat weighing on leasing and investment activity. Nevertheless, what is striking is how activity in the occupier and investment markets has picked up since the end of last year in the face of persistent challenges.

For Hong Kong, the Evergrande crisis and heightened risks on the mainland are the latest threat weighing on leasing and investment activity. Nevertheless, what is striking is how activity in the occupier and investment markets has picked up since the end of last year in the face of persistent challenges.

Evergrande crisis and China’s economic risks add to Hong Kong commercial property market’s wall of worry
4 Oct 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | Despite Evergrande’s woes, investors are worrying more about US policy missteps than China’s

With inflation worries and a contentious debt debate on their hands, the pressure is on Fed policymakers to raise interest rates and withdraw asset support without undermining the fragile economic recovery.

With inflation worries and a contentious debt debate on their hands, the pressure is on Fed policymakers to raise interest rates and withdraw asset support without undermining the fragile economic recovery.

Despite Evergrande’s woes, investors are worrying more about US policy missteps than China’s
4 Oct 2021 - 7:31PM
Opinion | Evergrande crisis is not entirely to blame for global market jitters

The Evergrande crisis is important only insofar as it feeds into a broader narrative around the slowdown in global growth and the risk of a major policy mistake.

The Evergrande crisis is important only insofar as it feeds into a broader narrative around the slowdown in global growth and the risk of a major policy mistake.

Evergrande crisis is not entirely to blame for global market jitters
4 Oct 2021 - 7:31PM
The View | Evergrande’s woes and China’s regulatory crackdown won’t put off commercial property investors

For large cross-border investors, China’s crucial role in the global economy, its huge consumer market and the need for exposure to the country to build scale in Asian commercial real estate outweigh the policy unpredictability.

For large cross-border investors, China’s crucial role in the global economy, its huge consumer market and the need for exposure to the country to build scale in Asian commercial real estate outweigh the policy unpredictability.

Evergrande’s woes and China’s regulatory crackdown won’t put off commercial property investors
21 Sep 2021 - 1:36PM
Macroscope | Why fears of a return to stagflation amid weak recovery are overblown

Inflation rates are low compared with the late 1970s and early 1980s, and there is little evidence of a rapid broadening of price pressures. What really concerns investors is how policymakers plan to support flagging growth while maintaining financial stability.

Inflation rates are low compared with the late 1970s and early 1980s, and there is little evidence of a rapid broadening of price pressures. What really concerns investors is how policymakers plan to support flagging growth while maintaining financial stability.

Why fears of a return to stagflation amid weak recovery are overblown
17 Sep 2021 - 1:30AM
The View | Why Asia’s office markets have less to fear from the Delta variant than those in the West

The much-heralded return to the office has been put on hold in the US, amid a surge in Covid-19 cases. But the virus has caused less disruption to workplace strategies in Asia, where employers and employees prefer not to blur the work-life boundary.

The much-heralded return to the office has been put on hold in the US, amid a surge in Covid-19 cases. But the virus has caused less disruption to workplace strategies in Asia, where employers and employees prefer not to blur the work-life boundary.

Why Asia’s office markets have less to fear from the Delta variant than those in the West
14 Sep 2021 - 8:15AM
Macroscope | German election: why China-Germany tensions won’t be eased, whoever wins

Germany’s election campaign has lacked a proper debate about China, despite fears its industry is losing out in trade with the Chinese. Germany appears to be heading for Merkelism without Merkel, which is not necessarily good for bilateral relations.

Germany’s election campaign has lacked a proper debate about China, despite fears its industry is losing out in trade with the Chinese. Germany appears to be heading for Merkelism without Merkel, which is not necessarily good for bilateral relations.

German election: why China-Germany tensions won’t be eased, whoever wins
9 Sep 2021 - 2:30PM
The View | Where others fear to tread, China may succeed in cooling its property market

Faced with runaway housing prices, most governments are reluctant to intervene, for fear in part of endangering the post-pandemic recovery. By contrast, Beijing has upped the ante in its clampdown.

Faced with runaway housing prices, most governments are reluctant to intervene, for fear in part of endangering the post-pandemic recovery. By contrast, Beijing has upped the ante in its clampdown.

Where others fear to tread, China may succeed in cooling its property market
7 Sep 2021 - 9:45AM
Macroscope | US Federal Reserve’s balancing act on tapering risks is pleasing no one

The Fed’s ‘tapering is not tightening’ strategy has cheered markets and eased fears of a repeat of 2013’s ‘taper tantrum’. Yet, by trying to please those who fear it might move too quickly as much as those who fear the opposite, the Fed could end up disappointing everyone.

The Fed’s ‘tapering is not tightening’ strategy has cheered markets and eased fears of a repeat of 2013’s ‘taper tantrum’. Yet, by trying to please those who fear it might move too quickly as much as those who fear the opposite, the Fed could end up disappointing everyone.

US Federal Reserve’s balancing act on tapering risks is pleasing no one
3 Sep 2021 - 8:56AM
Macroscope | Why India’s China-fuelled equity surge could come at a high cost

The unpredictability of Beijing’s regulatory interventions is accentuating the appeal of India’s tech sector, but the optimism is excessive. Lingering damage from the pandemic, overpriced equities and regulatory risks could set India up for a brutal sell-off.

The unpredictability of Beijing’s regulatory interventions is accentuating the appeal of India’s tech sector, but the optimism is excessive. Lingering damage from the pandemic, overpriced equities and regulatory risks could set India up for a brutal sell-off.

Why India’s China-fuelled equity surge could come at a high cost
27 Aug 2021 - 9:15AM
The View | Reits with Chinese characteristics: what do they mean for Asia and investors?

The overarching rationale behind China’s cautious approval of listed Reits is to control leverage in the infrastructure sector. However, Reits backed by logistics and other assets in the world’s second-largest economy could still be a big draw.

The overarching rationale behind China’s cautious approval of listed Reits is to control leverage in the infrastructure sector. However, Reits backed by logistics and other assets in the world’s second-largest economy could still be a big draw.

Reits with Chinese characteristics: what do they mean for Asia and investors?
23 Aug 2021 - 4:09PM
Macroscope | Delta exit strategy: neither China nor the US has the answer right now

China’s zero-tolerance stance is proving difficult to maintain in the face of the rapid spread of the Delta variant and a slowdown in the economy. Meanwhile, America’s strategy of ‘living with Covid’ threatens to overwhelm hospitals and further undermine consumer confidence.

China’s zero-tolerance stance is proving difficult to maintain in the face of the rapid spread of the Delta variant and a slowdown in the economy. Meanwhile, America’s strategy of ‘living with Covid’ threatens to overwhelm hospitals and further undermine consumer confidence.

Delta exit strategy: neither China nor the US has the answer right now
19 Aug 2021 - 2:30PM
The View | Thailand’s ‘Phuket Sandbox’ scheme is a ray of hope for Asia’s tourism industry

The pilot scheme sends an important signal for the rest of Thailand and other resort markets. When Asia’s zero-tolerance policy is proving unworkable, the sandbox scheme recognises that a new approach is needed towards an increasingly endemic virus.

The pilot scheme sends an important signal for the rest of Thailand and other resort markets. When Asia’s zero-tolerance policy is proving unworkable, the sandbox scheme recognises that a new approach is needed towards an increasingly endemic virus.

Thailand’s ‘Phuket Sandbox’ scheme is a ray of hope for Asia’s tourism industry
17 Aug 2021 - 9:15AM
Macroscope | As the Delta variant rages, is the market too fearless for its own good?

Market anxiety has swung sharply between angst over the Delta variant and worries that the Fed is falling behind in removing policy accommodation. More worryingly, even with bonds and equities dangerously overvalued, investors still think they can have their cake and eat it.

Market anxiety has swung sharply between angst over the Delta variant and worries that the Fed is falling behind in removing policy accommodation. More worryingly, even with bonds and equities dangerously overvalued, investors still think they can have their cake and eat it.

As the Delta variant rages, is the market too fearless for its own good?
13 Aug 2021 - 3:30AM
The View | Asia’s appetite for logistics property has room to grow

The more liquid offices sector is still favoured in this region, but investors can’t ignore the continuing demand for warehouse space in this pandemic-induced digital transformation. The recent ESR-ARA merger reflects a move by the leading property groups to capitalise on the opportunities on offer.

The more liquid offices sector is still favoured in this region, but investors can’t ignore the continuing demand for warehouse space in this pandemic-induced digital transformation. The recent ESR-ARA merger reflects a move by the leading property groups to capitalise on the opportunities on offer.

Asia’s appetite for logistics property has room to grow
9 Aug 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Why emerging markets will weather China’s regulatory crackdown just fine

Most emerging-market investors have little choice but to stick with China as its size and importance force investors to maintain their exposure. With previous China-led sell-offs having given way to rallies, emerging-market stocks could recover sooner than many think.

Most emerging-market investors have little choice but to stick with China as its size and importance force investors to maintain their exposure. With previous China-led sell-offs having given way to rallies, emerging-market stocks could recover sooner than many think.

Why emerging markets will weather China’s regulatory crackdown just fine
6 Aug 2021 - 1:46AM
Macroscope | Why China’s crackdown on tech and education won’t scare off global investors

The double whammy of the trade war and the pandemic has caused Beijing to double down on efforts to preserve stability. Still, concerns over such interventions have not put off foreign investors, and falls in Chinese tech stocks are creating buying opportunities.

The double whammy of the trade war and the pandemic has caused Beijing to double down on efforts to preserve stability. Still, concerns over such interventions have not put off foreign investors, and falls in Chinese tech stocks are creating buying opportunities.

Why China’s crackdown on tech and education won’t scare off global investors
29 Jul 2021 - 2:30PM
The View | How Covid-19 has boosted Asia’s luxury residential sector

The economic response to the pandemic has inflated asset values and encouraged the wealthy to park their money in property. Domestic buyers have stepped up to fill the gap as cross-border transactions fall amid lockdowns and travel restrictions.

The economic response to the pandemic has inflated asset values and encouraged the wealthy to park their money in property. Domestic buyers have stepped up to fill the gap as cross-border transactions fall amid lockdowns and travel restrictions.

How Covid-19 has boosted Asia’s luxury residential sector
27 Jul 2021 - 9:15AM
Macroscope | Why market fears over the Delta variant are probably overblown

Over the past 18 months, the pandemic has been more of an irritant than a major headwind for markets. Delta outbreaks are unlikely to be the catalyst for a sharp sell-off.

Over the past 18 months, the pandemic has been more of an irritant than a major headwind for markets. Delta outbreaks are unlikely to be the catalyst for a sharp sell-off.

Why market fears over the Delta variant are probably overblown
23 Jul 2021 - 3:30AM
The View | Is Hong Kong’s commercial property market healing? It’s complicated

The worst part of a three-year crisis is probably over for Asia’s premier financial centre, but much hinges on when borders reopen. Currently, the recovery is too fragile, and the appeal of other regional markets too strong, for Hong Kong to once again be a top destination for investment.

The worst part of a three-year crisis is probably over for Asia’s premier financial centre, but much hinges on when borders reopen. Currently, the recovery is too fragile, and the appeal of other regional markets too strong, for Hong Kong to once again be a top destination for investment.

Is Hong Kong’s commercial property market healing? It’s complicated
19 Jul 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Why a slowdown in China’s economic recovery is no cause for market jitters

Worries about global growth stem mainly from economic and virus-related developments in the US and Europe rather than Chinese weakness. Rather than signal growth is under threat, monetary easing in China is part of policymakers’ economic balancing act of supporting growth while curbing financial risks.

Worries about global growth stem mainly from economic and virus-related developments in the US and Europe rather than Chinese weakness. Rather than signal growth is under threat, monetary easing in China is part of policymakers’ economic balancing act of supporting growth while curbing financial risks.

Why a slowdown in China’s economic recovery is no cause for market jitters
15 Jul 2021 - 10:00PM
The View | Asian retail property going strong despite pandemic-driven e-commerce boom

While the pandemic has driven price corrections in UK and US retail real estate, boosting rental yield, it has also accentuated the resilience of Asian retail property. Asian retailers have been more successful at future-proofing.

While the pandemic has driven price corrections in UK and US retail real estate, boosting rental yield, it has also accentuated the resilience of Asian retail property. Asian retailers have been more successful at future-proofing.

Asian retail property going strong despite pandemic-driven e-commerce boom
12 Jul 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | Why overpriced stock markets are headed for a major correction

Low bond yields leave income-starved investors with little choice but to remain invested in equities. The combination of ever-loftier valuations and rising volatility associated with the withdrawal of stimulus will prove too much for stock markets.

Low bond yields leave income-starved investors with little choice but to remain invested in equities. The combination of ever-loftier valuations and rising volatility associated with the withdrawal of stimulus will prove too much for stock markets.

Why overpriced stock markets are headed for a major correction
9 Jul 2021 - 12:49AM
Macroscope | Markets show a worrying lack of concern over Delta variant and other risks to growth

It is increasingly apparent that investors are no longer concerned about threats to the global economy and markets. They seem just as indifferent about virus-induced threats to growth as they are about growth-induced threats to financial stability.

It is increasingly apparent that investors are no longer concerned about threats to the global economy and markets. They seem just as indifferent about virus-induced threats to growth as they are about growth-induced threats to financial stability.

Markets show a worrying lack of concern over Delta variant and other risks to growth
2 Jul 2021 - 9:15AM
The View | Japan’s economy may be lagging, but its property market is a star performer

Although Japan’s economic recovery is struggling to gain traction, it has been one of the most resilient and best-performing real estate investment markets since the pandemic erupted.

Although Japan’s economic recovery is struggling to gain traction, it has been one of the most resilient and best-performing real estate investment markets since the pandemic erupted.

Japan’s economy may be lagging, but its property market is a star performer
29 Jun 2021 - 9:15AM
Macroscope | How a hawkish US Federal Reserve could help China tame domestic risks

While emerging markets have good reason to fear a taper tantrum as the Fed discusses raising rates, the resulting dollar rebound could be a boon to China.

While emerging markets have good reason to fear a taper tantrum as the Fed discusses raising rates, the resulting dollar rebound could be a boon to China.

How a hawkish US Federal Reserve could help China tame domestic risks
25 Jun 2021 - 4:22AM