Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.

Latest from Nicholas Spiro

Macroscope | Coronavirus infection numbers take a back seat as optimism drives markets

The fallout from Covid-19 is still a source of anxiety, but investors are drawing comfort from central banks’ massive liquidity injections and signs of US economic recovery. However, the resurgence of the virus in some parts of the US should not be ignored.

3 Jul 2020 - 3:39AM

The fallout from Covid-19 is still a source of anxiety, but investors are drawing comfort from central banks’ massive liquidity injections and signs of US economic recovery. However, the resurgence of the virus in some parts of the US should not be ignored.

Coronavirus infection numbers take a back seat as optimism drives markets
The View | Why coronavirus pandemic is now viewed as a positive development by financial markets

Despite the WHO posting the largest number of new cases on June 21, market sentiment has remained buoyant, convinced of Federal Reserve support and that the second wave of Covid-19 will be less severe.

26 Jun 2020 - 5:26AM

Despite the WHO posting the largest number of new cases on June 21, market sentiment has remained buoyant, convinced of Federal Reserve support and that the second wave of Covid-19 will be less severe.

Why coronavirus pandemic is now viewed as a positive development by financial markets
The View | Why Hong Kong’s property market will benefit from falling office rent in pricey Central

While the economic downturn that has led to a decline in both rent and leasing activity in the world’s most expensive office market is worrying, a narrower rental gap between Central and other districts would set up the market for a healthier, more stable recovery.

23 Jun 2020 - 10:05AM

While the economic downturn that has led to a decline in both rent and leasing activity in the world’s most expensive office market is worrying, a narrower rental gap between Central and other districts would set up the market for a healthier, more stable recovery.

Why Hong Kong’s property market will benefit from falling office rent in pricey Central
Macroscope | Stock markets: the folly of following sports punters betting on a quick economic recovery

Stuck at home, more and more frustrated young people and first-time investors are wagering on stocks. They tend to be much more bullish than institutional investors about the post-lockdown recovery, and are contributing to the market froth.

19 Jun 2020 - 2:54AM

Stuck at home, more and more frustrated young people and first-time investors are wagering on stocks. They tend to be much more bullish than institutional investors about the post-lockdown recovery, and are contributing to the market froth.

Stock markets: the folly of following sports punters betting on a quick economic recovery
The View | Asia’s real estate investors find escape from coronavirus in sheds and beds

The rise in online shopping and working from home has driven a spike in demand for investing in last-mile logistics and warehousing space. Multifamily housing is also seeing increased interest as the pandemic heightens the appeal of properties that benefit from income stability and high occupancy.

15 Jun 2020 - 10:22PM

The rise in online shopping and working from home has driven a spike in demand for investing in last-mile logistics and warehousing space. Multifamily housing is also seeing increased interest as the pandemic heightens the appeal of properties that benefit from income stability and high occupancy.

Asia’s real estate investors find escape from coronavirus in sheds and beds
Macroscope | Why the US Federal Reserve is damned if it unleashes more coronavirus stimulus, and damned if it doesn’t

The unprecedented levels of stimulus from the Fed to help avert another 2008-style credit crunch have stabilised markets to the point it seems like the pandemic never happened. Changing course could be difficult, though.

11 Jun 2020 - 10:28PM

The unprecedented levels of stimulus from the Fed to help avert another 2008-style credit crunch have stabilised markets to the point it seems like the pandemic never happened. Changing course could be difficult, though.

Why the US Federal Reserve is damned if it unleashes more coronavirus stimulus, and damned if it doesn’t
The View | For Hong Kong’s property market, the national security law is just one more uncertainty in an already uncertain time

The sector, first hit in 2018 when Beijing’s capital controls led to a decline in leasing demand, is struggling under the impact of a trade war and Covid-19. But Hong Kong remains important as an offshore funding platform for Chinese companies.

8 Jun 2020 - 10:24PM

The sector, first hit in 2018 when Beijing’s capital controls led to a decline in leasing demand, is struggling under the impact of a trade war and Covid-19. But Hong Kong remains important as an offshore funding platform for Chinese companies.

For Hong Kong’s property market, the national security law is just one more uncertainty in an already uncertain time
Macroscope | US unrest threatens to derail the post-lockdown recovery and catch markets flat-footed

The US protests are being exacerbated by a spreading epidemic and the worst recession since the 1930s. Leaving aside the frightening prospect of a military crackdown, the unrest is putting pressure on the shaky foundations of the equity rally.

5 Jun 2020 - 4:15AM

The US protests are being exacerbated by a spreading epidemic and the worst recession since the 1930s. Leaving aside the frightening prospect of a military crackdown, the unrest is putting pressure on the shaky foundations of the equity rally.

US unrest threatens to derail the post-lockdown recovery and catch markets flat-footed
Macroscope | Market joy over lifting of coronavirus lockdowns ignores the looming risk of a second outbreak

Signs of improved global sentiment abound as the S&P 500 climbs to near its pre-pandemic highs. There is reason for caution, though, as investors appear to have conflated reopening economies with a smooth recovery, which is far from assured.

28 May 2020 - 10:16PM

Signs of improved global sentiment abound as the S&P 500 climbs to near its pre-pandemic highs. There is reason for caution, though, as investors appear to have conflated reopening economies with a smooth recovery, which is far from assured.

Market joy over lifting of coronavirus lockdowns ignores the looming risk of a second outbreak
The View | Less is more? How the office property sector must adapt to work habits changed by the coronavirus

While predictions that the office is on its way out are wide of the mark, the sector must reinvent itself for the post-pandemic world.

26 May 2020 - 11:19AM

While predictions that the office is on its way out are wide of the mark, the sector must reinvent itself for the post-pandemic world.

Less is more? How the office property sector must adapt to work habits changed by the coronavirus
Macroscope | Why investor optimism about the post-lockdown economic recovery is premature

The news of a promising vaccine trial, and the easing of lockdowns in leading economies, have played into an increasingly optimistic narrative in markets. But a market rally that is almost entirely based on hope might soon evaporate.

22 May 2020 - 2:07AM

The news of a promising vaccine trial, and the easing of lockdowns in leading economies, have played into an increasingly optimistic narrative in markets. But a market rally that is almost entirely based on hope might soon evaporate.

Why investor optimism about the post-lockdown economic recovery is premature
The View | Why China’s post-lockdown recovery won’t work as a test case for reopening Europe and America

In China, landlords and occupiers are taking stringent measures to help workers return safely. But many of the health and safety protocols enforced in China are much more difficult to implement in economies that value privacy.

19 May 2020 - 11:35AM

In China, landlords and occupiers are taking stringent measures to help workers return safely. But many of the health and safety protocols enforced in China are much more difficult to implement in economies that value privacy.

Why China’s post-lockdown recovery won’t work as a test case for reopening Europe and America
Macroscope | Coronavirus stimulus is needed now, despite the risk to the post-pandemic financial landscape

The Federal Reserve has made a momentous decision to purchase the debt of companies, including the bonds of junk-rated firms. Such aggressive stimulus measures are shoring up asset prices, but storing up trouble for the financial system.

15 May 2020 - 6:29AM

The Federal Reserve has made a momentous decision to purchase the debt of companies, including the bonds of junk-rated firms. Such aggressive stimulus measures are shoring up asset prices, but storing up trouble for the financial system.

Coronavirus stimulus is needed now, despite the risk to the post-pandemic financial landscape
The View | How coronavirus crisis is shaping the future of office space in Hong Kong

The net absorption of office space has fallen to an 18-year low, with a dramatic drop in demand from mainland firms. In the long run, the Covid-19-induced trend towards flexible working arrangements will drive office decentralisation.

12 May 2020 - 11:00AM

The net absorption of office space has fallen to an 18-year low, with a dramatic drop in demand from mainland firms. In the long run, the Covid-19-induced trend towards flexible working arrangements will drive office decentralisation.

How coronavirus crisis is shaping the future of office space in Hong Kong
Macroscope | As the coronavirus crisis ravages the US, what accounts for its stock market outperforming the rest of the world?

The US stock market is dominated by tech firms that have benefited from trends such as remote working and online shopping. Meanwhile, the economic prospects for other regions are even worse.

7 May 2020 - 10:21PM

The US stock market is dominated by tech firms that have benefited from trends such as remote working and online shopping. Meanwhile, the economic prospects for other regions are even worse.

As the coronavirus crisis ravages the US, what accounts for its stock market outperforming the rest of the world?
Macroscope | Until a vaccine is found, Covid-19 will continue to maul the economy – whatever markets believe

Investors are right to draw comfort from the massive stimulus injected to prevent a crash, but should not dismiss the extent of the disease’s impact on the global economy. Any recovery can only be tentative as long as a vaccine or treatment remains elusive.

30 Apr 2020 - 10:29PM

Investors are right to draw comfort from the massive stimulus injected to prevent a crash, but should not dismiss the extent of the disease’s impact on the global economy. Any recovery can only be tentative as long as a vaccine or treatment remains elusive.

Until a vaccine is found, Covid-19 will continue to maul the economy – whatever markets believe
The View | Coronavirus has darkened the outlook for Asia’s real estate market, but South Korea remains a rare bright spot

Unlike markets heavily dependent on cross-border investment, South Korea has a large domestic investor base. The country’s property market is also benefiting from its success in containing the spread of Covid-19.

28 Apr 2020 - 10:02AM

Unlike markets heavily dependent on cross-border investment, South Korea has a large domestic investor base. The country’s property market is also benefiting from its success in containing the spread of Covid-19.

Coronavirus has darkened the outlook for Asia’s real estate market, but South Korea remains a rare bright spot
Macroscope | US and EU have been hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis, but where’s their resolve to crush Covid-19?

Policymakers and epidemiologists disagree over how much infection curves need to flatten before lockdowns are eased. The disagreements are fiercest in the countries worst hit by Covid-19, where the response has become too politicised.

23 Apr 2020 - 10:28PM

Policymakers and epidemiologists disagree over how much infection curves need to flatten before lockdowns are eased. The disagreements are fiercest in the countries worst hit by Covid-19, where the response has become too politicised.

US and EU have been hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis, but where’s their resolve to crush Covid-19?
The View | China post-Covid-19: why it’s still too soon to count on the property sector springing back to life

China has flattened the curve, but it isn’t out of the woods yet. While there are signs of recovery in the office and retail sectors, China is restarting its economy during a global recession. Also, new infections in Harbin are worrying.

21 Apr 2020 - 10:14AM

China has flattened the curve, but it isn’t out of the woods yet. While there are signs of recovery in the office and retail sectors, China is restarting its economy during a global recession. Also, new infections in Harbin are worrying.

China post-Covid-19: why it’s still too soon to count on the property sector springing back to life
Macroscope | Why financial markets and epidemiology are not a good mix

Signs that Covid-19 is nearing its peak have helped steer a rise in global stocks, but the data is still too limited to draw any conclusion.

17 Apr 2020 - 9:03AM

Signs that Covid-19 is nearing its peak have helped steer a rise in global stocks, but the data is still too limited to draw any conclusion.

Why financial markets and epidemiology are not a good mix
The View | Coronavirus takes a heavy toll on the world’s most expensive office market – Hong Kong’s Central district

The disruption caused by Covid-19 is not only exacerbating the vulnerabilities of the city’s office market, but earlier sources of resilience are also being compromised.

13 Apr 2020 - 10:23PM

The disruption caused by Covid-19 is not only exacerbating the vulnerabilities of the city’s office market, but earlier sources of resilience are also being compromised.

Coronavirus takes a heavy toll on the world’s most expensive office market – Hong Kong’s Central district
Macroscope | Why markets are making a big mistake in assuming the coronavirus threat is receding and betting on recovery

While the virus-induced slide into global recession was rapid, the resumption of economic activity will be anything but. Markets have seized on signs that infection rates are slowing, but actual economic recovery remains a distant prospect.

10 Apr 2020 - 5:56AM

While the virus-induced slide into global recession was rapid, the resumption of economic activity will be anything but. Markets have seized on signs that infection rates are slowing, but actual economic recovery remains a distant prospect.

Why markets are making a big mistake in assuming the coronavirus threat is receding and betting on recovery
Macroscope | In the protracted coronavirus fight, lockdown fatigue is the most serious market threat

The severity of the economic fallout has put governments in a bind, torn between adopting forceful measures to tackle the public health emergency and keeping the economy grinding along so a brutal global recession does not become a devastating depression.

2 Apr 2020 - 10:19PM

The severity of the economic fallout has put governments in a bind, torn between adopting forceful measures to tackle the public health emergency and keeping the economy grinding along so a brutal global recession does not become a devastating depression.

In the protracted coronavirus fight, lockdown fatigue is the most serious market threat
The View | Will the coronavirus shock push the retail sector in the US and Britain to adopt the China model?

Coronavirus-related lockdowns and supply chain disruptions have dealt a severe blow to the retail industry in the US and the UK, already grappling with the threat of online shopping.

31 Mar 2020 - 6:04AM

Coronavirus-related lockdowns and supply chain disruptions have dealt a severe blow to the retail industry in the US and the UK, already grappling with the threat of online shopping.

Will the coronavirus shock push the retail sector in the US and Britain to adopt the China model?
Macroscope | As the coronavirus rocks financial markets worldwide, China is not the safe bet investors hope it is

While Chinese stock market, yuan and bond markets have proved resilient, it is too early to say whether China will be hit by a second wave of infections, and the strain on global supply chains does not bode well for the country.

27 Mar 2020 - 3:01AM

While Chinese stock market, yuan and bond markets have proved resilient, it is too early to say whether China will be hit by a second wave of infections, and the strain on global supply chains does not bode well for the country.

As the coronavirus rocks financial markets worldwide, China is not the safe bet investors hope it is
The View | Asia may have the edge in battling the coronavirus, but property prices don’t reflect the severity of the crisis

Asia has proved more successful in containing the virus so far. However, the assumption the region will be first in, first out of the downturn is questionable, as it is still unclear how quickly China’s economy can resume without triggering a rise in new infections.

24 Mar 2020 - 9:13AM

Asia has proved more successful in containing the virus so far. However, the assumption the region will be first in, first out of the downturn is questionable, as it is still unclear how quickly China’s economy can resume without triggering a rise in new infections.

Asia may have the edge in battling the coronavirus, but property prices don’t reflect the severity of the crisis
Macroscope | As Europe’s coronavirus death rate climbs, China’s recovery from the epidemic has become a bellwether for investor sentiment

If economic activity resumes in China without triggering renewed clusters of outbreaks, investors will conclude that aggressive containment measures can be successful and they will have clarity on the depth and duration of the crisis.

20 Mar 2020 - 2:29AM

If economic activity resumes in China without triggering renewed clusters of outbreaks, investors will conclude that aggressive containment measures can be successful and they will have clarity on the depth and duration of the crisis.

As Europe’s coronavirus death rate climbs, China’s recovery from the epidemic has become a bellwether for investor sentiment
The View | As the coronavirus tears through financial markets, Chinese real estate bonds are holding the fort

While sales are falling and the rise in home prices slowing across Chinese cities, real estate debt remains resilient on the back of decisive government action to contain the spread of the coronavirus and policy support for developers.

17 Mar 2020 - 2:59AM

While sales are falling and the rise in home prices slowing across Chinese cities, real estate debt remains resilient on the back of decisive government action to contain the spread of the coronavirus and policy support for developers.

As the coronavirus tears through financial markets, Chinese real estate bonds are holding the fort
Macroscope | Coronavirus crisis: what Boris Johnson can teach Donald Trump about calming investors’ nerves

Compared to 2008, the current threat is harder for policymakers to counter. Like the UK, the US must act decisively with both a monetary and fiscal package.

13 Mar 2020 - 3:48AM

Compared to 2008, the current threat is harder for policymakers to counter. Like the UK, the US must act decisively with both a monetary and fiscal package.

Coronavirus crisis: what Boris Johnson can teach Donald Trump about calming investors’ nerves
The View | As a global economic storm gathers, even Singapore may no longer be a safe haven for investors

Singapore’s commercial property market surged last year largely because of foreign capital inflows. But this is now a liability, as cross-border investors take a sterner view of the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy.

10 Mar 2020 - 12:07PM

Singapore’s commercial property market surged last year largely because of foreign capital inflows. But this is now a liability, as cross-border investors take a sterner view of the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy.

As a global economic storm gathers, even Singapore may no longer be a safe haven for investors