Nicholas Spiro

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory.
Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory.

Latest from Nicholas Spiro

Macroscope | If Trump has a currency war in mind as part of his presidential campaign, he’s not likely to get very far

Trump’s comments on the US dollar and the Federal Reserve have sparked fears that he might take steps to weaken the American currency. However, neither the Fed nor other central banks, such as in the euro zone and Japan, are likely to cooperate.

6 hours ago

Trump’s comments on the US dollar and the Federal Reserve have sparked fears that he might take steps to weaken the American currency. However, neither the Fed nor other central banks, such as in the euro zone and Japan, are likely to cooperate.

If Trump has a currency war in mind as part of his presidential campaign, he’s not likely to get very far
The View | Hong Kong’s property market takes its cue from the Hang Seng Index, not protesters

The Hang Seng Index’s impact on housing prices trumps other factors such as interest rates and the flow of funds from the mainland. Given the index’s sensitivity to China’s economy, a stock market sell-off is only a matter of time, but property prices will continue to rise in the coming months.

16 Jul 2019 - 9:08AM

The Hang Seng Index’s impact on housing prices trumps other factors such as interest rates and the flow of funds from the mainland. Given the index’s sensitivity to China’s economy, a stock market sell-off is only a matter of time, but property prices will continue to rise in the coming months.

Hong Kong’s property market takes its cue from the Hang Seng Index, not protesters
Macroscope | Why the stock market rally will not last long, despite dovish moves by central banks

While recent stock market gains are rooted in confidence that central banks will ease monetary policy, investors are not moving into assets that profit from stronger growth. This indicates a lack of faith in the effectiveness of more stimulus.

12 Jul 2019 - 4:38AM

While recent stock market gains are rooted in confidence that central banks will ease monetary policy, investors are not moving into assets that profit from stronger growth. This indicates a lack of faith in the effectiveness of more stimulus.

Why the stock market rally will not last long, despite dovish moves by central banks
The View | Retail decline in the US and Britain can’t be blamed on e-commerce alone. Look at China

The continuing closure of shopping malls and high street stores in the West stands in sharp contrast to the integrated model, a mix of online and bricks-and-mortar retail, now spurring an industry boom in China.

9 Jul 2019 - 2:59AM

The continuing closure of shopping malls and high street stores in the West stands in sharp contrast to the integrated model, a mix of online and bricks-and-mortar retail, now spurring an industry boom in China.

Retail decline in the US and Britain can’t be blamed on e-commerce alone. Look at China
Macroscope | Donald Trump wants a weaker US dollar. But that’s just bad economics

Trump has accused Europe and China of devaluing their currencies to gain trade advantages and claims the Fed is keeping interest rates too high. But, whether he likes it or not, a strong greenback is also a sign of a resilient US economy.

5 Jul 2019 - 3:54AM

Trump has accused Europe and China of devaluing their currencies to gain trade advantages and claims the Fed is keeping interest rates too high. But, whether he likes it or not, a strong greenback is also a sign of a resilient US economy.

Donald Trump wants a weaker US dollar. But that’s just bad economics
The View | Why Hong Kong’s office market has the edge over Singapore’s, despite the eye-popping rents in Central

While it’s easy to assume Hong Kong’s runaway prices and growing instability will benefit competitors, including Singapore, that doesn’t take account of the city’s decentralised, mature office submarkets that Singapore has yet to fully develop.

2 Jul 2019 - 10:10AM

While it’s easy to assume Hong Kong’s runaway prices and growing instability will benefit competitors, including Singapore, that doesn’t take account of the city’s decentralised, mature office submarkets that Singapore has yet to fully develop.

Why Hong Kong’s office market has the edge over Singapore’s, despite the eye-popping rents in Central
Macroscope | A mini bear market in bonds might be what the world needs as investors amass US$13 trillion in negative-yield debt

The plunge in bond yields, which has powered a stock market rally, partly reflects investors’ outsize expectations of further monetary stimulus. Positive news on the US-China trade war could trigger a fixed income sell-off on fears that central banks might pull back from easing policy.

27 Jun 2019 - 2:32PM

The plunge in bond yields, which has powered a stock market rally, partly reflects investors’ outsize expectations of further monetary stimulus. Positive news on the US-China trade war could trigger a fixed income sell-off on fears that central banks might pull back from easing policy.

A mini bear market in bonds might be what the world needs as investors amass US$13 trillion in negative-yield debt
Macroscope | Risks posed by trade war and Federal Reserve policy are graver than investors seem to realise

Markets must come to terms with the fact that China and the US are too far apart on crucial issues for the trade war to be resolved soon. When central banks themselves have become sources of volatility, investors must wake up to the dangers of underpricing risk.

20 Jun 2019 - 10:29PM

Markets must come to terms with the fact that China and the US are too far apart on crucial issues for the trade war to be resolved soon. When central banks themselves have become sources of volatility, investors must wake up to the dangers of underpricing risk.

Risks posed by trade war and Federal Reserve policy are graver than investors seem to realise
The View | Hong Kong’s extradition turmoil won’t dampen the property market greatly – but China’s economy might

The city’s property market is correlated to the stock market, which remains robust. Moreover, demand from mainland investors continues to be strong while supply of residential and commercial space is limited.

18 Jun 2019 - 9:26AM

The city’s property market is correlated to the stock market, which remains robust. Moreover, demand from mainland investors continues to be strong while supply of residential and commercial space is limited.

Hong Kong’s extradition turmoil won’t dampen the property market greatly – but China’s economy might
Macroscope | Four reasons quantitative easing is not the solution to the global economy’s problems right now

The damaging effects of the previous rounds of quantitative easing are still being felt in low bond yields, falls in European and American bank shares and increased income inequality. Further monetary policy loosening might convince investors a recession is imminent while a market rally could encourage Trump in his trade war.

13 Jun 2019 - 10:35PM

The damaging effects of the previous rounds of quantitative easing are still being felt in low bond yields, falls in European and American bank shares and increased income inequality. Further monetary policy loosening might convince investors a recession is imminent while a market rally could encourage Trump in his trade war.

Four reasons quantitative easing is not the solution to the global economy’s problems right now
The View | With e-commerce booming, investors should make space for Asia-Pacific’s biggest warehouse landlord

ESR Cayman, expected to be Hong Kong’s largest initial public offering so far this year, will benefit from high prime logistics yields in Asia-Pacific, growing disposable incomes in China and India, and government support for the logistics industry.

10 Jun 2019 - 10:36PM

ESR Cayman, expected to be Hong Kong’s largest initial public offering so far this year, will benefit from high prime logistics yields in Asia-Pacific, growing disposable incomes in China and India, and government support for the logistics industry.

With e-commerce booming, investors should make space for Asia-Pacific’s biggest warehouse landlord
Macroscope | Three reasons the ‘Trump bump’ can no longer be counted on to prop up financial markets

Standing up to China is now a bipartisan political strategy and the US president’s unpredictable trade policies are taking a toll on market confidence. So, investors should be cautious, especially as Fed rate cuts are not guaranteed.

6 Jun 2019 - 10:32PM

Standing up to China is now a bipartisan political strategy and the US president’s unpredictable trade policies are taking a toll on market confidence. So, investors should be cautious, especially as Fed rate cuts are not guaranteed.

Three reasons the ‘Trump bump’ can no longer be counted on to prop up financial markets
The View | Has Asia’s commercial property bull market peaked? Here are three reasons to suggest it has further to run

Investors are still ploughing money into the Hong Kong office market, for example, even though prime yields are close to three-month US bond yields. Clearly, there’s a lot more money waiting to be deployed across the region.

3 Jun 2019 - 10:21PM

Investors are still ploughing money into the Hong Kong office market, for example, even though prime yields are close to three-month US bond yields. Clearly, there’s a lot more money waiting to be deployed across the region.

Has Asia’s commercial property bull market peaked? Here are three reasons to suggest it has further to run
Macroscope | Why the US-China tech war spells bigger trouble for investors than the conflict over trade

With many investors overweight on the tech sector, which has fuelled the decade-long stock market rally, Trump’s focus on technology in his battle with China could hit portfolios hard. However, a sell-off may be what is needed to ease tensions.

30 May 2019 - 10:51PM

With many investors overweight on the tech sector, which has fuelled the decade-long stock market rally, Trump’s focus on technology in his battle with China could hit portfolios hard. However, a sell-off may be what is needed to ease tensions.

Why the US-China tech war spells bigger trouble for investors than the conflict over trade
Macroscope | As tourism in the Asia-Pacific booms, the hotel industry is the real estate sector to watch

While mature markets in the region, such as Hong Kong and Japan, are performing strongly, mainland China is driving growth in development and investment. Meanwhile, Vietnam, which recorded the strongest growth in visitor arrivals, is the standout market.

27 May 2019 - 10:29PM

While mature markets in the region, such as Hong Kong and Japan, are performing strongly, mainland China is driving growth in development and investment. Meanwhile, Vietnam, which recorded the strongest growth in visitor arrivals, is the standout market.

As tourism in the Asia-Pacific booms, the hotel industry is the real estate sector to watch
Macroscope | As the US-China trade war escalates, stock markets have been shaken but not stirred

A mere 3 per cent drop in the S&P 500 this month, despite the escalation in the US-China trade, war indicates that markets have not adequately grasped the risk that the conflict poses.

23 May 2019 - 10:24PM

A mere 3 per cent drop in the S&P 500 this month, despite the escalation in the US-China trade, war indicates that markets have not adequately grasped the risk that the conflict poses.

As the US-China trade war escalates, stock markets have been shaken but not stirred
The View | Unmoved by trade war escalations, China’s commercial real estate market outperforms competitors

Asset turnover, the Greater Bay Area and Beijing’s economic stimulus have all helped China’s real estate market defy global trends and the broad slowdown in its own economy.

20 May 2019 - 11:02PM

Asset turnover, the Greater Bay Area and Beijing’s economic stimulus have all helped China’s real estate market defy global trends and the broad slowdown in its own economy.

Unmoved by trade war escalations, China’s commercial real estate market outperforms competitors
Macroscope | A dovish Fed and other central banks could save emerging markets from a repeat of last year’s turmoil

While emerging markets are under renewed pressure from similar factors that were behind last year’s rout, central banks seem more accommodative this year. However, a change in investor sentiment could lead to rapid outflows from the asset class.

16 May 2019 - 10:26PM

While emerging markets are under renewed pressure from similar factors that were behind last year’s rout, central banks seem more accommodative this year. However, a change in investor sentiment could lead to rapid outflows from the asset class.

A dovish Fed and other central banks could save emerging markets from a repeat of last year’s turmoil
The View | Failed trade talks could cool Hong Kong’s housing market, but not enough to ease supply concerns

The gains in property prices this year show that legitimate concerns over trade war negotiations are not priced in. Still, demand and limited land mean housing prices will continue to bedevil Hong Kong.

14 May 2019 - 7:00AM

The gains in property prices this year show that legitimate concerns over trade war negotiations are not priced in. Still, demand and limited land mean housing prices will continue to bedevil Hong Kong.

Failed trade talks could cool Hong Kong’s housing market, but not enough to ease supply concerns
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s trade tweets and the Federal Reserve chief’s missteps are sending markets on a roller-coaster ride

Trump’s choice to spend political capital on tough trade tactics and Powell’s mixed signals on interest rates may be temporary, but they are playing havoc with the markets. Will investors be willing to wait them out?

13 May 2019 - 10:46AM

Trump’s choice to spend political capital on tough trade tactics and Powell’s mixed signals on interest rates may be temporary, but they are playing havoc with the markets. Will investors be willing to wait them out?

Donald Trump’s trade tweets and the Federal Reserve chief’s missteps are sending markets on a roller-coaster ride
Macroscope | The US is still outperforming its competitors in global markets, but a rising dollar and the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected could change that

The US economy has far outgrown other developed economies, especially Japan and Europe. The strength of the dollar is concerning, though, as is Donald Trump’s fiscal stewardship.

3 May 2019 - 1:57AM

The US economy has far outgrown other developed economies, especially Japan and Europe. The strength of the dollar is concerning, though, as is Donald Trump’s fiscal stewardship.

The US is still outperforming its competitors in global markets, but a rising dollar and the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected could change that
The View | In Hong Kong’s Central, the world’s most costly office market, landlords might have to come down to Earth

Sky-high rents, ageing building stock and a shake-out in the co-working sector have dimmed the attraction of Central, Admiralty and Sheung Wan for office tenants. Meanwhile, Kowloon accounted for a sizeable chunk of leasing volume in the last quarter.

29 Apr 2019 - 10:17PM

Sky-high rents, ageing building stock and a shake-out in the co-working sector have dimmed the attraction of Central, Admiralty and Sheung Wan for office tenants. Meanwhile, Kowloon accounted for a sizeable chunk of leasing volume in the last quarter.

In Hong Kong’s Central, the world’s most costly office market, landlords might have to come down to Earth
Macroscope | US stocks are booming, volatility has collapsed and the Fed is dovish. Why do investors remain cautious?

Major asset classes have bounced back this year with the S&P 500 gaining 25 per cent from its low in December. However, equity funds in developed economies continue to suffer outflows, with global growth prospects, especially China, remaining a concern.

26 Apr 2019 - 1:45AM

Major asset classes have bounced back this year with the S&P 500 gaining 25 per cent from its low in December. However, equity funds in developed economies continue to suffer outflows, with global growth prospects, especially China, remaining a concern.

US stocks are booming, volatility has collapsed and the Fed is dovish. Why do investors remain cautious?
The View | Singaporean real estate investors are leading the Asian charge deeper into Europe as Chinese firms lie low

While China’s capital controls have dampened outbound investment, Singaporean investment firms are venturing beyond London and Paris in Europe, with acquisitions of property assets in Poland and Hungary. South Korean investors are following suit.

23 Apr 2019 - 9:05AM

While China’s capital controls have dampened outbound investment, Singaporean investment firms are venturing beyond London and Paris in Europe, with acquisitions of property assets in Poland and Hungary. South Korean investors are following suit.

Singaporean real estate investors are leading the Asian charge deeper into Europe as Chinese firms lie low
Macroscope | China’s economic rebound is helping Europe, but not as much as Italy, France, Germany and Brexit are hurting it

China’s first-quarter GDP figures have helped fuel market rallies and some investors see opportunity in unloved European stocks, but home-grown problems will severely limit their upside, and that of the euro-zone economy in general.

18 Apr 2019 - 10:22PM

China’s first-quarter GDP figures have helped fuel market rallies and some investors see opportunity in unloved European stocks, but home-grown problems will severely limit their upside, and that of the euro-zone economy in general.

China’s economic rebound is helping Europe, but not as much as Italy, France, Germany and Brexit are hurting it
The View | Cutthroat competition in China’s co-working office sector will see a survival of the largest

The fact China’s largest home-grown provider of shared workspace, Ucommune, succeeded in winning fresh backing amid a funding crunch is yet another sign that consolidation is under way and more of the smaller players are set to fail.

15 Apr 2019 - 10:24PM

The fact China’s largest home-grown provider of shared workspace, Ucommune, succeeded in winning fresh backing amid a funding crunch is yet another sign that consolidation is under way and more of the smaller players are set to fail.

Cutthroat competition in China’s co-working office sector will see a survival of the largest
Macroscope | Why Brexit has been but a blip in financial markets

Despite the worries of a no-deal Brexit, narrowly averted this week by a deadline extension, fund managers tend to see it as an idiosyncratic risk that’s potentially less damaging than systemic threats, such as the US-China trade war.

11 Apr 2019 - 10:36PM

Despite the worries of a no-deal Brexit, narrowly averted this week by a deadline extension, fund managers tend to see it as an idiosyncratic risk that’s potentially less damaging than systemic threats, such as the US-China trade war.

Why Brexit has been but a blip in financial markets
The View | Slowdown in Australia’s property market won’t dampen Chinese investor interest

Not only is the market correction happening in a fundamentally strong economy, but Chinese developers’ established presence in Australia and Chinese people’s favourable sentiment towards the country will ensure the appeal of Australian property endures.

9 Apr 2019 - 6:07AM

Not only is the market correction happening in a fundamentally strong economy, but Chinese developers’ established presence in Australia and Chinese people’s favourable sentiment towards the country will ensure the appeal of Australian property endures.

Slowdown in Australia’s property market won’t dampen Chinese investor interest
Opinion | The US dollar will continue its triumphant run – unless central banks and the American economy change course

As long as the US economy continues to outperform its peers and other central banks take a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve, the dollar will continue to remain strong

4 Apr 2019 - 10:17PM

As long as the US economy continues to outperform its peers and other central banks take a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve, the dollar will continue to remain strong

The US dollar will continue its triumphant run – unless central banks and the American economy change course
Opinion | Why the US is not slipping into a recession, despite the inverted Treasury yield curve

While an inverted yield curve could be taken as a sign that a recession is in the offing, US manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment remain robust. The inversion in US yields is actually a by-product of excessively low yields in Europe and Japan.

28 Mar 2019 - 10:32PM

While an inverted yield curve could be taken as a sign that a recession is in the offing, US manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment remain robust. The inversion in US yields is actually a by-product of excessively low yields in Europe and Japan.

Why the US is not slipping into a recession, despite the inverted Treasury yield curve