China's Vice-Premier Liu He poses for a photo with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (right) and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Beijing on March 28. Ongoing negotiations between the US and China are reportedly nearing their end, with the possibility of Chinese President Xi Jinping signing a trade deal with US President Donald Trump floated for June. Photo: AFP China's Vice-Premier Liu He poses for a photo with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (right) and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Beijing on March 28. Ongoing negotiations between the US and China are reportedly nearing their end, with the possibility of Chinese President Xi Jinping signing a trade deal with US President Donald Trump floated for June. Photo: AFP
China's Vice-Premier Liu He poses for a photo with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (right) and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Beijing on March 28. Ongoing negotiations between the US and China are reportedly nearing their end, with the possibility of Chinese President Xi Jinping signing a trade deal with US President Donald Trump floated for June. Photo: AFP
Chen Zhao
Opinion

Opinion

Chen Zhao

A US-China trade deal won’t be a win for global markets if Beijing shifts its trade surplus to other countries

  • Imagine what happens if China commits to wiping out its share of the US trade deficit – a stronger US dollar, higher US interest rates, and a redistribution of Chinese imports could bring pain to the rest of the world

China's Vice-Premier Liu He poses for a photo with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (right) and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Beijing on March 28. Ongoing negotiations between the US and China are reportedly nearing their end, with the possibility of Chinese President Xi Jinping signing a trade deal with US President Donald Trump floated for June. Photo: AFP China's Vice-Premier Liu He poses for a photo with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (right) and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Beijing on March 28. Ongoing negotiations between the US and China are reportedly nearing their end, with the possibility of Chinese President Xi Jinping signing a trade deal with US President Donald Trump floated for June. Photo: AFP
China's Vice-Premier Liu He poses for a photo with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (right) and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Beijing on March 28. Ongoing negotiations between the US and China are reportedly nearing their end, with the possibility of Chinese President Xi Jinping signing a trade deal with US President Donald Trump floated for June. Photo: AFP
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Chen Zhao

Chen Zhao

Chen Zhao is founding partner and chief strategist of Alpine Macro. From 2015 to 2016, he was co-director of macro research at Brandywine Global Investment Management. Prior to that, Chen spent 23 years at BCA Research. He holds an MA in economics from the Central University of Finance and Economics, was a visiting scholar at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and pursued post-graduate studies with a PhD candidacy at McGill University.