Chen Zhao

Chen Zhao

Chen Zhao is founding partner and chief strategist of Alpine Macro. From 2015 to 2016, he was co-director of macro research at Brandywine Global Investment Management. Prior to that, Chen spent 23 years at BCA Research. He holds an MA in economics from the Central University of Finance and Economics, was a visiting scholar at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and pursued post-graduate studies with a PhD candidacy at McGill University.

Latest from Chen Zhao

The View | Three reasons China’s shrinking population won’t slow the economy

Population growth is almost irrelevant to economic growth for a developing country. Besides, China has millions of rural workers, who can partially offset any potential labour shortage. It also has the option of raising the retirement age.

Population growth is almost irrelevant to economic growth for a developing country. Besides, China has millions of rural workers, who can partially offset any potential labour shortage. It also has the option of raising the retirement age.

27 Jul 2021 - 2:30PM
The View | Why Hong Kong’s ‘indebted’ companies won’t trigger an economic collapse any time soon

The recent prediction of a ‘cataclysmic recession’ triggered by high private-sector debt fails to take into account Hong Kong’s role as a global financial centre. Moreover, debt levels alone are a poor measure of financial risk.

The recent prediction of a ‘cataclysmic recession’ triggered by high private-sector debt fails to take into account Hong Kong’s role as a global financial centre. Moreover, debt levels alone are a poor measure of financial risk.

28 Oct 2020 - 8:48AM
Opinion | Donald Trump’s anti-China policy is doomed to fail, as his coronavirus strategy did

Rather than a cohesive strategy, America is taking aim at China’s economy based on a mix of short-term thinking, parochial calculations, and fear of Chinese competition. Most of its attacks are missing the mark, and some are likely to boomerang on US interests instead.

Rather than a cohesive strategy, America is taking aim at China’s economy based on a mix of short-term thinking, parochial calculations, and fear of Chinese competition. Most of its attacks are missing the mark, and some are likely to boomerang on US interests instead.

15 Aug 2020 - 3:05AM
Opinion | Why Trump’s threats to ‘punish’ China over Covid-19 ring hollow

Trade tariffs, tech bans or cancelling US debt obligations to China are all unlikely, given their enormous cost to the US economy. As for backing Taiwan independence? Not if it meant outright war with China.

Trade tariffs, tech bans or cancelling US debt obligations to China are all unlikely, given their enormous cost to the US economy. As for backing Taiwan independence? Not if it meant outright war with China.

14 May 2020 - 10:01AM
The View | China must not choke off the private sector’s access to credit in the name of deleveraging

With state-owned enterprises soaking up the bulk of bank loans, the economy is in fact underleveraged. Many private businesses depend on freely flowing credit to survive and thrive. If the government truly wants to build a competitive financial system, it must allow banks to run like banks.

With state-owned enterprises soaking up the bulk of bank loans, the economy is in fact underleveraged. Many private businesses depend on freely flowing credit to survive and thrive. If the government truly wants to build a competitive financial system, it must allow banks to run like banks.

28 Jan 2020 - 9:44AM
Opinion | Why there’s no reason to be bearish about China’s slowing economy – just look at the big picture

Those disappointed by China’s economic data must put the facts in perspective, as higher income levels go hand in hand with lower growth rates. Industrialising the rest of China’s huge rural labour force will provide enough momentum for productivity gains in the years ahead.

Those disappointed by China’s economic data must put the facts in perspective, as higher income levels go hand in hand with lower growth rates. Industrialising the rest of China’s huge rural labour force will provide enough momentum for productivity gains in the years ahead.

22 Aug 2019 - 3:15AM
Opinion | A US-China trade deal won’t be a win for global markets if Beijing shifts its trade surplus to other countries

Imagine what happens if China commits to wiping out its share of the US trade deficit – a chain reaction of stronger US dollar, higher US interest rates, and a redistribution of Chinese imports could bring pain to the rest of the world.

Imagine what happens if China commits to wiping out its share of the US trade deficit – a chain reaction of stronger US dollar, higher US interest rates, and a redistribution of Chinese imports could bring pain to the rest of the world.

30 Apr 2019 - 5:37AM
Macroscope | Deleveraging is the wrong way to fix China’s economy, when it doesn’t even have a debt problem

Beijing has embraced the mistaken view that China’s economy is overleveraged. A large part of China’s high debt-to-GDP ratio is actually cheap credit given to the state sector. In fact, the private economy is underleveraged.

Beijing has embraced the mistaken view that China’s economy is overleveraged. A large part of China’s high debt-to-GDP ratio is actually cheap credit given to the state sector. In fact, the private economy is underleveraged.

28 Nov 2018 - 10:26PM
Macroscope | How China’s falling stock market mirrors its failing economic policy

the repeated cycle of monetary tightening followed by stimulus is largely driven by Beijing’s flawed deleveraging policy, and the drop in stock prices is just the latest phase.

the repeated cycle of monetary tightening followed by stimulus is largely driven by Beijing’s flawed deleveraging policy, and the drop in stock prices is just the latest phase.

18 Oct 2018 - 1:46AM
The View | Why a tit-for-tat strategy won’t work for China in the trade war with America

Beijing should think twice before taking populist retaliatory measures against Washington. Instead, it should focus on increasing domestic spending

Beijing should think twice before taking populist retaliatory measures against Washington. Instead, it should focus on increasing domestic spending

21 Aug 2018 - 10:30PM
As trade war hits, China’s focus should be on steadying growth, and breaking the stop-go fiscal policy cycle

Beijing has shown a trend towards tightening liquidity and credit at unfortunate times, leading to the 2015-16 market slump that forced leaders to drastically reverse course.

Beijing has shown a trend towards tightening liquidity and credit at unfortunate times, leading to the 2015-16 market slump that forced leaders to drastically reverse course.

11 Jul 2018 - 10:28PM
20 Jul 2018 - 2:54PM