Opinion | How China’s ‘maritime militia’ raises the stakes for clashes with the US in the South China Sea

Change in US military protocol means Chinese ‘militia’ and navy are treated the same, and skirmishes could quickly escalate into armed conflict

What is needed is an effective and regular mechanism for two of the world’s largest military powers to address their issues peacefully

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The USS Blue Ridge, flagship of the US 7th fleet, anchored off Manila Bay in the Philippines for a routine port call on March 13. Under the new calculus, if the Philippine military were attacked by Chinese militia — essentially fishing boats backed by coastguard vessels — the treaty-bound US would be obligated to strike back. Photo: AP

Published: 1:00am, 10 May 2019Updated: 4:52am, 10 May 2019

For years, China has avoided direct military-to-military clashes in the South China Sea through the use of fishing vessels backed by the Chinese coastguard to enforce its territorial claims. This “maritime militia” strategy may have exhausted its effectiveness now that the US considers these irregular forces to be under the command of the People’s Liberation Army Navy.

US-China military dialogue needs to increase to match this rising risk of small-scale skirmishes leading to broader armed conflict. Prospects for dialogue, however, are dimming as tensions across a range of bilateral issues show no signs of easing.

It was no trivial distinction when, as has been recently made public, US Admiral John Richardson told Chinese Vice Admiral Shen Jinlong in January that China’s militia and its navy would be treated the same way.

Conflict almost occurred as recently as December when China sent 100 maritime militia ships to contest the Philippine-occupied Thitu reef located between the island of Palawan and Vietnam.

By April, the number had grown to over 200 ships. Under the new calculus, if the Philippine military were attacked by any of these vessels, the treaty-bound US would be obligated to strike back. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reassured Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte of this commitment.