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Macroscope
Opinion
Anthony Rowley

Macroscope | Donald Trump has a friend in Japan, even as the trade war puts US alliances to the test

  • America’s relations with its allies will be sorely tested by the economic fallout of the escalating trade war, which increasingly shows the US president is mistaken in believing China will cave in quickly when under pressure

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US President Donald Trump is welcomed by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as he arrives to play golf at the Mobara Country Club in Mobara, Chiba Prefecture, east of Tokyo, on May 26. Photo: Reuters
US President Donald Trump landed at the weekend on America's “unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Pacific” (as former prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone once referred to Japan), at a time when the trade war with China is looking unlikely to be an “easy win” – and could turn out to be a new Pearl Harbour. 

Having shunned alliances at the national level, the US leader needs personal allies wherever and whenever he can find them, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is offering Trump not just a deck to land on but one of the few shoulders he can cry on if things go wrong.

Coming just a month before Trump is due in Japan anyway for the G20 summit in Fukuoka, his current visit to Tokyo looks more like an attempt to rally waning support than a triumphal state visit. It could even suggest that Trump is planning to skip the summit.
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He has blundered into confrontation with China with all the aplomb and finesse of a circus elephant seizing a trick cycle and attempting to ride it across a swaying tightrope. There is no safety net and the collateral damage to the dismayed audience could be severe.

The hapless (one might justifiably say clueless) US leader has miscalculated in two respects – China's determination and ability to withstand a crude trade assault, and the extent of the global fallout that is resulting from an ill-considered and unilateral rush into battle.

As this economic fallout gathers pace, the US leader will find the already slim ranks of his allies among heads of state thinning even further, so much so that, by the time the G20 summit comes around next month, he may feel that the meeting will be an uncomfortable confrontation.

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