How the Philippines can play peacemaker in Asean while banking on goodwill with China

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III says Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is well placed to navigate his country’s new role as Asean-China coordinator, having bolstered ties with South China Sea littoral countries, including China, since he took office

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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pauses to his pay respects to the Chinese and Philippine flags as he reviews troops with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte (left) during a welcome ceremony at Malacanang Palace grounds in Manila on November 15, 2017. Duterte has fostered closer relations with China than his predecessor. Photo: AP

Published: 3:00pm, 5 Sep 2018Updated: 7:55pm, 5 Sep 2018

As the Philippines assumes the role of country coordinator for relations between the Association of Southeast Nations and China for the next three years, there is cause for both optimism and apprehension.

Recent agreement on a single draft negotiating text as the basis for further code of conduct negotiations demonstrate welcome progress in peacefully resolving the South China Sea disputes. Broadening areas of cooperation with China, particularly in the fields of infrastructure, renewable energy, tourism, investments and agriculture, are also expected.

However, improved Philippines-China relations generate worries that Manila will refrain from calling out Beijing’s expanding military footprint in the contested sea and will continue to play down the value of the 2016 International Court of Arbitration award in favour of the Philippines against China over features in the South China Sea.

There has been notable progress in the handling of the South China Sea disputes in the past two years. A code for unplanned encounters at sea, hotline communications, a code of conduct framework and naval exercises are noteworthy regional accomplishments. In bilateral terms, a joint coastguard committee for maritime cooperation and a high-level bilateral consultation mechanism was established between the Philippines and China, and proposals for joint exploration for oil and gas are under negotiation.

Going by this positive trajectory, there is reason for optimism. Indeed, the political climate, especially better relations between key claimants in the South China Sea, has become more conducive to dispute management. However, it is still too early to celebrate. Fishing and routine patrol incidents will test these nascent confidence-building measures. Functional cooperation has to win domestic approval and the involvement of concerned littoral states.

The Philippines is expected to build on these recent milestones. As a claimant state, it could help shepherd a consensus towards a binding and effective code of conduct soon. The Duterte administration’s attempts to cultivate good relations with fellow Asean members and China will be helpful in this regard.

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