The best and worst outcomes of the Singapore-Malaysia territorial disputes
- Mark J. Valencia says Malaysia’s territorial disputes with Singapore reflect the countries’ bitter past. But, in the long term, a trade-off is possible: one side gets to maintain its maritime claim, and the other gets to manage the airspace
This tit-for-tat revived a long-dormant dispute and became linked to other bilateral issues. Each accused the other of hyping the issues and stoking nationalism for domestic political gain. Some observers say the bilateral relationship is now the worst it has been in two decades.
There is an underlying context to these disputes: Singapore was expelled from the Federation of Malaysia in 1965 and, as a small Chinese-majority city state surrounded by Malay-majority neighbours, it has a phobia of being bullied by them.
The most biting summary of the bilateral relationship may have come from retired Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan, who said: “They have not given up – and never will – trying to tame or domesticate Singapore because unless they do so, the intrinsic shortcomings of a system based on the dominance of a particular race will be highlighted, particularly since we do better with a different system.” Perhaps he is right, though others might counter that Singapore has never stopped feeling superior to Malaysia after its transformation into a modern nation.
Because of this bitter history, any bilateral dispute can quickly escalate, as this one nearly did and still could, if either side insists on an all-or-nothing solution.
What are the possible outcomes and their implications?
The worst possibility is the continuation of vitriolic rhetoric in both countries. Nationalism, or even racial antipathy, runs deep on both sides and could spiral out of control. This would be particularly worrying to Singapore’s leaders.
At the other end of the spectrum, the neighbours could reach a compromise. They have agreed a temporary moratorium. Perhaps this truce could be extended, and the issues would fall from public view, at least.
But as long as the boundary issue remains unresolved, there will be confusion over the respective national responsibilities for regulating the disputed waters. Moreover, the area could become a haven for polluting vessels, smugglers and even terrorists.
One possibility would be for the two sides to establish a joint authority to manage the disputed waters. In the longer term, there may well be a trade-off between the maritime and airspace disputes. Perhaps Malaysia could maintain its maritime claim and in turn allow Singapore to continue managing the airspace over its territory. One thing is fairly certain: neither country is going to get everything it wants, but the two sides must compromise for the sake of future generations.
Mark J. Valencia is an adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China
