Opinion | US-China marriage of convenience has fallen into codependency – can it avoid a messy divorce?

Stephen Roach says China’s shift in its growth model away from heavy savings has become a source of discomfort to the US but the relationship can be transformed into one of mutual interdependence

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US President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk together at the Mar-a-Lago estate in West Palm Beach, Florida, in April 2017. Trump’s trade war has exposed cracks in the US-China relationship that had strengthened since the 1970s. Photo: AFP

Published: 10:00am, 27 Sep 2018Updated: 7:17pm, 27 Sep 2018

Codependency never ends well in personal relationships. Judging by the ever-escalating trade war between the United States and China, the same is true of economic relationships.

While I published a book in 2014 on the codependent economic relationship between the US and China, I would be the first to concede that it is a stretch to generalise insights from human psychology to assess the behaviour of national economies. But the similarities are striking, and the prognosis all the more compelling, as the world’s two largest economies sink into a dangerous quagmire.

In its most basic terms, codependency occurs at one of the extremes of relationship dynamics – when two partners draw more from each other than from their own inner strength. This is not a stable condition. Codependency deepens as partner feedback tends to grow in importance and self-confidence steadily diminishes as a result.

The relationship becomes highly reactive and fraught, with mounting tensions. Invariably, one partner hits a limit and seeks a new source of sustenance. This leaves the other feeling scorned, steeped in denial and blame, and ultimately with a vindictive urge to lash out in response.

Watch: Trump threatens tariffs on nearly all Chinese goods