Stephen Roach

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
Stephen Roach
Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

Latest from Stephen Roach

Opinion | The US-China trade war and Brexit are dealing body blows to already weak global trade

Growing protectionism, increased tariffs and Brexit-induced disruption are all adding stress to the global trade cycle and could spark a sudden downturn from which no major economy will be spared.

29 Jan 2019 - 11:10PM
The US-China trade war and Brexit are dealing body blows to already weak global trade

Growing protectionism, increased tariffs and Brexit-induced disruption are all adding stress to the global trade cycle and could spark a sudden downturn from which no major economy will be spared.

Opinion | Rising interest rates mean the US Federal Reserve is back to the fundamentals, and that’s reason to celebrate

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases show the central bank is returning to the era of reliance on market fundamentals, ending the period of asset-friendly easy money.

27 Dec 2018 - 3:17AM
Rising interest rates mean the US Federal Reserve is back to the fundamentals, and that’s reason to celebrate

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases show the central bank is returning to the era of reliance on market fundamentals, ending the period of asset-friendly easy money.

Opinion | Four ways Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could reframe US-China relations at their G20 meeting

A bilateral US-China investment treaty to resolve conflict over market access and macroeconomic adjustments on savings would go a long way towards resolving differences. A global accord on cybersecurity and a permanent secretariat for bilateral dialogue would also be productive.

27 Nov 2018 - 4:02AM
Four ways Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could reframe US-China relations at their G20 meeting

A bilateral US-China investment treaty to resolve conflict over market access and macroeconomic adjustments on savings would go a long way towards resolving differences. A global accord on cybersecurity and a permanent secretariat for bilateral dialogue would also be productive.

Opinion | US inflation is set to rise. The Fed must act now

Stephen Roach says the trade war’s impact on global value chains and the tight US labour market will fan inflationary pressures of the current US economic upturn, so the Fed is right to press on with monetary tightening – and should, perhaps, even step it up

24 Oct 2018 - 1:56AM
US inflation is set to rise. The Fed must act now

Stephen Roach says the trade war’s impact on global value chains and the tight US labour market will fan inflationary pressures of the current US economic upturn, so the Fed is right to press on with monetary tightening – and should, perhaps, even step it up

Opinion | US-China marriage of convenience has fallen into codependency – can it avoid a messy divorce?

China’s shift in its growth model away from heavy savings has become a source of discomfort to the US but the relationship can be transformed into one of mutual interdependence.

29 Sep 2018 - 2:36PM
US-China marriage of convenience has fallen into codependency – can it avoid a messy divorce?

China’s shift in its growth model away from heavy savings has become a source of discomfort to the US but the relationship can be transformed into one of mutual interdependence.

The View | The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing report card is mixed – except for the rich

As the 10th anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme approaches, five lessons can be learned from its successes and shortcomings.

31 Jul 2018 - 10:31PM
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing report card is mixed – except for the rich

As the 10th anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme approaches, five lessons can be learned from its successes and shortcomings.

Donald Trump’s opponent in his trade war is actually economics, and he will certainly lose

The real roots of the US trade imbalance with China can be found in its low savings rate, even as it outspends its competitors in military budget. Trump’s trade war will exacerbate the problem at hand: this is power politics over fact-based policymaking.

26 Jun 2018 - 6:52PM
Donald Trump’s opponent in his trade war is actually economics, and he will certainly lose

The real roots of the US trade imbalance with China can be found in its low savings rate, even as it outspends its competitors in military budget. Trump’s trade war will exacerbate the problem at hand: this is power politics over fact-based policymaking.

Opinion | There is no bilateral solution for the United States’ multilateral dilemma

The United States and China appear to have backed away from the precipice of a trade war, but that framework of negotiations is flawed: a deal with any one country will do little to resolve America’s fundamental economic imbalances that have arisen in an interconnected world.

26 May 2018 - 11:42PM
There is no bilateral solution for the United States’ multilateral dilemma

The United States and China appear to have backed away from the precipice of a trade war, but that framework of negotiations is flawed: a deal with any one country will do little to resolve America’s fundamental economic imbalances that have arisen in an interconnected world.

Why the US has a weak case against China’s ‘unfair’ trade practices

The evidence of hostile trade practices that the US has levied against China ignores the diminishing threat of Chinese cyberespionage and the history of industrial policy among the US and its allies.

20 Jul 2018 - 8:47PM
Why the US has a weak case against China’s ‘unfair’ trade practices

The evidence of hostile trade practices that the US has levied against China ignores the diminishing threat of Chinese cyberespionage and the history of industrial policy among the US and its allies.

Trade war threat a reminder of the global risks to China’s 2050 growth plan

As Beijing throws itself into structural rebalancing of the economy, it must know the challenge is not just internal, but also shaped by the global economy and China’s relationships with other major nations.

20 Jul 2018 - 8:47PM
Trade war threat a reminder of the global risks to China’s 2050 growth plan

As Beijing throws itself into structural rebalancing of the economy, it must know the challenge is not just internal, but also shaped by the global economy and China’s relationships with other major nations.

Why leadership problems lie at the heart of the US-China trade conflict

China has leaned on Xi Jinping’s continued leadership to stay its economic course, but the US administration considers ‘staying the course’ on trade unacceptable

20 Jul 2018 - 8:47PM
Why leadership problems lie at the heart of the US-China trade conflict

China has leaned on Xi Jinping’s continued leadership to stay its economic course, but the US administration considers ‘staying the course’ on trade unacceptable

The US economy is far from sound, no matter what the hype

The recent stock market correction is no fleeting aberration. With its ultra-low saving rate, unrestrained spending and misguided policies, America is living off its future prosperity.

27 Feb 2018 - 3:01PM
The US economy is far from sound, no matter what the hype

The recent stock market correction is no fleeting aberration. With its ultra-low saving rate, unrestrained spending and misguided policies, America is living off its future prosperity.

US Republicans’ claims about the benefits of tax cuts have a credibility deficit
US Fed must move faster to raise rates and cut its balance sheet – before another crisis hits

With financial markets this frothy, central bankers must aim for a quick reset of crisis-mode policy interventions, and overblown fears of deflation should not hold them back

20 Jul 2018 - 2:55PM
US Fed must move faster to raise rates and cut its balance sheet – before another crisis hits

With financial markets this frothy, central bankers must aim for a quick reset of crisis-mode policy interventions, and overblown fears of deflation should not hold them back

The global economy is growing again, but there’s nothing normal about this recovery
China’s global ambitions can wait while it rebalances its economy
Trump is wrong: corporate tax cuts aren’t the best way to boost the US economy
If Trump does curb trade, he’d better get Americans to save more – a lot more
US and Japanese central bankers are in denial over the signs of an impending meltdown
How to save globalisation from its demise
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