Stephen Roach

Stephen Roach

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

Latest from Stephen Roach

Opinion | How ‘Covid first’ China is trumping ‘America first’ in economic recovery

In 2008, China responded to the financial crisis by addressing the source of the shock itself, not the collateral damage the shock caused. Beijing’s approach to Covid-19 is similar. By contrast, the US is paying for its government’s inability or unwillingness to limit the contagion.

27 Oct 2020 - 4:50PM

In 2008, China responded to the financial crisis by addressing the source of the shock itself, not the collateral damage the shock caused. Beijing’s approach to Covid-19 is similar. By contrast, the US is paying for its government’s inability or unwillingness to limit the contagion.

How ‘Covid first’ China is trumping ‘America first’ in economic recovery
Opinion | Why the US dollar is only going to fall faster and harder

Given the unprecedented erosion of domestic savings, an explosive current account deficit, and the Fed determined to keep rates flat, expect the dollar to plunge by as much as 35 per cent next year.

27 Sep 2020 - 7:27PM

Given the unprecedented erosion of domestic savings, an explosive current account deficit, and the Fed determined to keep rates flat, expect the dollar to plunge by as much as 35 per cent next year.

Why the US dollar is only going to fall faster and harder
The View | America must brace itself for a double-dip economic recession

Financial markets’ optimism about a V-shaped recovery from Covid-19 is not supported by the history of the US business cycle. With America still struggling to contain the pandemic, the lingering fears of infection will continue to impede any lasting recovery.

27 Aug 2020 - 2:51AM

Financial markets’ optimism about a V-shaped recovery from Covid-19 is not supported by the history of the US business cycle. With America still struggling to contain the pandemic, the lingering fears of infection will continue to impede any lasting recovery.

America must brace itself for a double-dip economic recession
The View | How the coronavirus may deliver a shock to the US dollar

US domestic saving, already depressed, is headed deep into negative territory. This is likely to lead to a record current-account deficit, and the US could see a 35 per cent dollar plunge over the next two to three years.

25 Jun 2020 - 3:33AM

US domestic saving, already depressed, is headed deep into negative territory. This is likely to lead to a record current-account deficit, and the US could see a 35 per cent dollar plunge over the next two to three years.

How the coronavirus may deliver a shock to the US dollar
Opinion | The coronavirus crisis has finally sunk the US-China relationship. What’s next?

China’s economic rebalancing set the stage for an uneasy shift in relations, and now tit-for-tat blame over the pandemic has pitched the tension into open conflict. Both Chinese and Americans will be worse off in the new cold war.

29 Apr 2020 - 4:10AM

China’s economic rebalancing set the stage for an uneasy shift in relations, and now tit-for-tat blame over the pandemic has pitched the tension into open conflict. Both Chinese and Americans will be worse off in the new cold war.

The coronavirus crisis has finally sunk the US-China relationship. What’s next?
Opinion | Why the ‘big bazooka’ used in the 2008 financial meltdown is the wrong weapon for the coronavirus crisis

The global financial crisis playbook was designed for a world facing threats to the quantity of economic growth. It cannot be the answer for a world facing a shock stemming from deficiencies in the quality of that growth.

21 Mar 2020 - 3:44AM

The global financial crisis playbook was designed for a world facing threats to the quantity of economic growth. It cannot be the answer for a world facing a shock stemming from deficiencies in the quality of that growth.

Why the ‘big bazooka’ used in the 2008 financial meltdown is the wrong weapon for the coronavirus crisis
The View | Unlike during Sars, this coronavirus epidemic is hitting the global economy when it’s down

The outbreak will pass, but it is unlikely to be the temporary blip that complacent financial markets expect, given the central role China now plays in many aspects of the world economy and the vulnerabilities in major economies.

25 Feb 2020 - 10:26PM

The outbreak will pass, but it is unlikely to be the temporary blip that complacent financial markets expect, given the central role China now plays in many aspects of the world economy and the vulnerabilities in major economies.

Unlike during Sars, this coronavirus epidemic is hitting the global economy when it’s down
The View | The world economy is on the precipice, and don’t look to trade growth to cushion a fall

The IMF’s latest assessment of the global outlook is sobering – a shock event will easily tip fragile economies into recession. Global trade is sluggish from the impact of protectionism. An expansion in cross-border trade, a reliable growth driver in the past, is unlikely.

28 Jan 2020 - 11:05PM

The IMF’s latest assessment of the global outlook is sobering – a shock event will easily tip fragile economies into recession. Global trade is sluggish from the impact of protectionism. An expansion in cross-border trade, a reliable growth driver in the past, is unlikely.

The world economy is on the precipice, and don’t look to trade growth to cushion a fall
Opinion | For the cause of the next financial crisis, look to central banks’ overextended balance sheets

Assets of the US Federal Reserve, European Central Banks and Bank of Japan stand at 3.5 times their pre-crisis level. Protectionism, populism and political dysfunction could provide the trigger that tips vulnerable global markets into crisis.

26 Dec 2019 - 2:53AM

Assets of the US Federal Reserve, European Central Banks and Bank of Japan stand at 3.5 times their pre-crisis level. Protectionism, populism and political dysfunction could provide the trigger that tips vulnerable global markets into crisis.

For the cause of the next financial crisis, look to central banks’ overextended balance sheets
Opinion | If Trump’s interest in the US-China trade war is flagging and a deal is near, what will the future look like?

The US president and China both seem ready for a trade-war truce. While fears of deglobalisation and global decoupling are overblown, the US may still divert trade away from China, at a cost to American consumers.

27 Nov 2019 - 3:49AM

The US president and China both seem ready for a trade-war truce. While fears of deglobalisation and global decoupling are overblown, the US may still divert trade away from China, at a cost to American consumers.

If Trump’s interest in the US-China trade war is flagging and a deal is near, what will the future look like?
The View | In the rush to demonise China over trade, the West has failed to give Beijing enough credit for its green leadership

China is focusing on sustainability at a point when its per capita output is barely more than one-third that of advanced economies. A relatively poor country has made a conscious choice to shift from the quantity to the quality of growth.

26 Sep 2019 - 2:25AM

China is focusing on sustainability at a point when its per capita output is barely more than one-third that of advanced economies. A relatively poor country has made a conscious choice to shift from the quantity to the quality of growth.

In the rush to demonise China over trade, the West has failed to give Beijing enough credit for its green leadership
Opinion | Trump’s incoherent policies take aim at a China that no longer exists

The US president, by failing to recognise a China in transition, is applying bizarre trade and economic fixes that fail to neutralise its existential threat to America and will end up destabilising the global economy.

29 Aug 2019 - 2:04AM

The US president, by failing to recognise a China in transition, is applying bizarre trade and economic fixes that fail to neutralise its existential threat to America and will end up destabilising the global economy.

Trump’s incoherent policies take aim at a China that no longer exists
Opinion | For all his bluster, Donald Trump’s approach to economics has three basic flaws. Look to 2020 for their impact

From corporate tax cuts to the trade war to putting pressure on the Federal Reserve, Trump has ignored the lessons of history and failed to grasp the link between budget deficits, tariffs and monetary policy.

26 Jun 2019 - 3:11AM

From corporate tax cuts to the trade war to putting pressure on the Federal Reserve, Trump has ignored the lessons of history and failed to grasp the link between budget deficits, tariffs and monetary policy.

For all his bluster, Donald Trump’s approach to economics has three basic flaws. Look to 2020 for their impact
Opinion | Why Donald Trump can’t make America great again by replicating Ronald Reagan’s script

Unlike Reagan who targeted Japan in the 1980s, Trump has inherited a US economy with a chronically low savings rate and that is much more globally integrated. Without the US raising national saving, trade will simply shift from China to other countries.

29 May 2019 - 2:20PM

Unlike Reagan who targeted Japan in the 1980s, Trump has inherited a US economy with a chronically low savings rate and that is much more globally integrated. Without the US raising national saving, trade will simply shift from China to other countries.

Why Donald Trump can’t make America great again by replicating Ronald Reagan’s script
Opinion | Donald Trump’s case against China is deeply flawed and ignores weaknesses in the American economy

The US narrative on China – from the trade deficit to intellectual property theft to support for state-owned enterprises – rests on shaky foundations and does not account for America’s macroeconomic shortcomings.

30 Apr 2019 - 5:30PM

The US narrative on China – from the trade deficit to intellectual property theft to support for state-owned enterprises – rests on shaky foundations and does not account for America’s macroeconomic shortcomings.

Donald Trump’s case against China is deeply flawed and ignores weaknesses in the American economy
Opinion | Donald Trump is wrong. The US economy is not strong enough to win cold war 2.0

While the US prevailed in the cold war with the Soviet Union, its economy is in a much weaker position today. Both the US and China should resolve their own economic imbalances and then work together to preserve the post-war world order.

4 Apr 2019 - 2:14AM

While the US prevailed in the cold war with the Soviet Union, its economy is in a much weaker position today. Both the US and China should resolve their own economic imbalances and then work together to preserve the post-war world order.

Donald Trump is wrong. The US economy is not strong enough to win cold war 2.0
Opinion | How US trade negotiators are misreading China while ignoring America’s dangerously low savings rate

China’s recent economic slowdown is less a result of the trade war than its deleveraging campaign, which can be adjusted as needed. Meanwhile, US economic strength is likely to be short-lived as the effect of its tax cuts fades.

26 Feb 2019 - 1:41PM

China’s recent economic slowdown is less a result of the trade war than its deleveraging campaign, which can be adjusted as needed. Meanwhile, US economic strength is likely to be short-lived as the effect of its tax cuts fades.

How US trade negotiators are misreading China while ignoring America’s dangerously low savings rate
Opinion | The US-China trade war and Brexit are dealing body blows to already weak global trade

Growing protectionism, increased tariffs and Brexit-induced disruption are all adding stress to the global trade cycle and could spark a sudden downturn from which no major economy will be spared.

30 Jan 2019 - 3:39AM

Growing protectionism, increased tariffs and Brexit-induced disruption are all adding stress to the global trade cycle and could spark a sudden downturn from which no major economy will be spared.

The US-China trade war and Brexit are dealing body blows to already weak global trade
Opinion | Rising interest rates mean the US Federal Reserve is back to the fundamentals, and that’s reason to celebrate

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases show the central bank is returning to the era of reliance on market fundamentals, ending the period of asset-friendly easy money.

27 Dec 2018 - 3:17AM

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases show the central bank is returning to the era of reliance on market fundamentals, ending the period of asset-friendly easy money.

Rising interest rates mean the US Federal Reserve is back to the fundamentals, and that’s reason to celebrate
Opinion | Four ways Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could reframe US-China relations at their G20 meeting

A bilateral US-China investment treaty to resolve conflict over market access and macroeconomic adjustments on savings would go a long way towards resolving differences. A global accord on cybersecurity and a permanent secretariat for bilateral dialogue would also be productive.

27 Nov 2018 - 4:02AM

A bilateral US-China investment treaty to resolve conflict over market access and macroeconomic adjustments on savings would go a long way towards resolving differences. A global accord on cybersecurity and a permanent secretariat for bilateral dialogue would also be productive.

Four ways Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could reframe US-China relations at their G20 meeting
Opinion | US inflation is set to rise. The Fed must act now

Stephen Roach says the trade war’s impact on global value chains and the tight US labour market will fan inflationary pressures of the current US economic upturn, so the Fed is right to press on with monetary tightening – and should, perhaps, even step it up

24 Oct 2018 - 1:56AM

Stephen Roach says the trade war’s impact on global value chains and the tight US labour market will fan inflationary pressures of the current US economic upturn, so the Fed is right to press on with monetary tightening – and should, perhaps, even step it up

US inflation is set to rise. The Fed must act now
Opinion | US-China marriage of convenience has fallen into codependency – can it avoid a messy divorce?

China’s shift in its growth model away from heavy savings has become a source of discomfort to the US but the relationship can be transformed into one of mutual interdependence.

27 Sep 2018 - 7:17PM

China’s shift in its growth model away from heavy savings has become a source of discomfort to the US but the relationship can be transformed into one of mutual interdependence.

US-China marriage of convenience has fallen into codependency – can it avoid a messy divorce?
The View | The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing report card is mixed – except for the rich

As the 10th anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme approaches, five lessons can be learned from its successes and shortcomings.

31 Jul 2018 - 10:31PM

As the 10th anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme approaches, five lessons can be learned from its successes and shortcomings.

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing report card is mixed – except for the rich
Donald Trump’s opponent in his trade war is actually economics, and he will certainly lose

The real roots of the US trade imbalance with China can be found in its low savings rate, even as it outspends its competitors in military budget. Trump’s trade war will exacerbate the problem at hand: this is power politics over fact-based policymaking.

26 Jun 2018 - 6:52PM

The real roots of the US trade imbalance with China can be found in its low savings rate, even as it outspends its competitors in military budget. Trump’s trade war will exacerbate the problem at hand: this is power politics over fact-based policymaking.

Donald Trump’s opponent in his trade war is actually economics, and he will certainly lose
Opinion | There is no bilateral solution for the United States’ multilateral dilemma

The United States and China appear to have backed away from the precipice of a trade war, but that framework of negotiations is flawed: a deal with any one country will do little to resolve America’s fundamental economic imbalances that have arisen in an interconnected world.

26 May 2018 - 11:42PM

The United States and China appear to have backed away from the precipice of a trade war, but that framework of negotiations is flawed: a deal with any one country will do little to resolve America’s fundamental economic imbalances that have arisen in an interconnected world.

There is no bilateral solution for the United States’ multilateral dilemma
Why the US has a weak case against China’s ‘unfair’ trade practices

The evidence of hostile trade practices that the US has levied against China ignores the diminishing threat of Chinese cyberespionage and the history of industrial policy among the US and its allies.

26 Apr 2018 - 8:50PM

The evidence of hostile trade practices that the US has levied against China ignores the diminishing threat of Chinese cyberespionage and the history of industrial policy among the US and its allies.

Why the US has a weak case against China’s ‘unfair’ trade practices
Trade war threat a reminder of the global risks to China’s 2050 growth plan

As Beijing throws itself into structural rebalancing of the economy, it must know the challenge is not just internal, but also shaped by the global economy and China’s relationships with other major nations.

6 Apr 2018 - 5:43PM

As Beijing throws itself into structural rebalancing of the economy, it must know the challenge is not just internal, but also shaped by the global economy and China’s relationships with other major nations.

Trade war threat a reminder of the global risks to China’s 2050 growth plan
Why leadership problems lie at the heart of the US-China trade conflict

China has leaned on Xi Jinping’s continued leadership to stay its economic course, but the US administration considers ‘staying the course’ on trade unacceptable

21 Mar 2018 - 5:17PM

China has leaned on Xi Jinping’s continued leadership to stay its economic course, but the US administration considers ‘staying the course’ on trade unacceptable

Why leadership problems lie at the heart of the US-China trade conflict
The US economy is far from sound, no matter what the hype

The recent stock market correction is no fleeting aberration. With its ultra-low saving rate, unrestrained spending and misguided policies, America is living off its future prosperity.

27 Feb 2018 - 3:01PM

The recent stock market correction is no fleeting aberration. With its ultra-low saving rate, unrestrained spending and misguided policies, America is living off its future prosperity.

The US economy is far from sound, no matter what the hype
US Republicans’ claims about the benefits of tax cuts have a credibility deficit