Stephen Roach

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
Stephen Roach
Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

Latest from Stephen Roach

The View | In the rush to demonise China over trade, the West has failed to give Beijing enough credit for its green leadership

China is focusing on sustainability at a point when its per capita output is barely more than one-third that of advanced economies. A relatively poor country has made a conscious choice to shift from the quantity to the quality of growth.

26 Sep 2019 - 2:25AM

China is focusing on sustainability at a point when its per capita output is barely more than one-third that of advanced economies. A relatively poor country has made a conscious choice to shift from the quantity to the quality of growth.

In the rush to demonise China over trade, the West has failed to give Beijing enough credit for its green leadership
Opinion | Trump’s incoherent policies take aim at a China that no longer exists

The US president, by failing to recognise a China in transition, is applying bizarre trade and economic fixes that fail to neutralise its existential threat to America and will end up destabilising the global economy.

29 Aug 2019 - 2:04AM

The US president, by failing to recognise a China in transition, is applying bizarre trade and economic fixes that fail to neutralise its existential threat to America and will end up destabilising the global economy.

Trump’s incoherent policies take aim at a China that no longer exists
Opinion | For all his bluster, Donald Trump’s approach to economics has three basic flaws. Look to 2020 for their impact

From corporate tax cuts to the trade war to putting pressure on the Federal Reserve, Trump has ignored the lessons of history and failed to grasp the link between budget deficits, tariffs and monetary policy.

26 Jun 2019 - 3:11AM

From corporate tax cuts to the trade war to putting pressure on the Federal Reserve, Trump has ignored the lessons of history and failed to grasp the link between budget deficits, tariffs and monetary policy.

For all his bluster, Donald Trump’s approach to economics has three basic flaws. Look to 2020 for their impact
Opinion | Why Donald Trump can’t make America great again by replicating Ronald Reagan’s script

Unlike Reagan who targeted Japan in the 1980s, Trump has inherited a US economy with a chronically low savings rate and that is much more globally integrated. Without the US raising national saving, trade will simply shift from China to other countries.

29 May 2019 - 2:20PM

Unlike Reagan who targeted Japan in the 1980s, Trump has inherited a US economy with a chronically low savings rate and that is much more globally integrated. Without the US raising national saving, trade will simply shift from China to other countries.

Why Donald Trump can’t make America great again by replicating Ronald Reagan’s script
Opinion | Donald Trump’s case against China is deeply flawed and ignores weaknesses in the American economy

The US narrative on China – from the trade deficit to intellectual property theft to support for state-owned enterprises – rests on shaky foundations and does not account for America’s macroeconomic shortcomings.

30 Apr 2019 - 5:30PM

The US narrative on China – from the trade deficit to intellectual property theft to support for state-owned enterprises – rests on shaky foundations and does not account for America’s macroeconomic shortcomings.

Donald Trump’s case against China is deeply flawed and ignores weaknesses in the American economy
Opinion | Donald Trump is wrong. The US economy is not strong enough to win cold war 2.0

While the US prevailed in the cold war with the Soviet Union, its economy is in a much weaker position today. Both the US and China should resolve their own economic imbalances and then work together to preserve the post-war world order.

4 Apr 2019 - 2:14AM

While the US prevailed in the cold war with the Soviet Union, its economy is in a much weaker position today. Both the US and China should resolve their own economic imbalances and then work together to preserve the post-war world order.

Donald Trump is wrong. The US economy is not strong enough to win cold war 2.0
Opinion | How US trade negotiators are misreading China while ignoring America’s dangerously low savings rate

China’s recent economic slowdown is less a result of the trade war than its deleveraging campaign, which can be adjusted as needed. Meanwhile, US economic strength is likely to be short-lived as the effect of its tax cuts fades.

26 Feb 2019 - 1:41PM

China’s recent economic slowdown is less a result of the trade war than its deleveraging campaign, which can be adjusted as needed. Meanwhile, US economic strength is likely to be short-lived as the effect of its tax cuts fades.

How US trade negotiators are misreading China while ignoring America’s dangerously low savings rate
Opinion | The US-China trade war and Brexit are dealing body blows to already weak global trade

Growing protectionism, increased tariffs and Brexit-induced disruption are all adding stress to the global trade cycle and could spark a sudden downturn from which no major economy will be spared.

30 Jan 2019 - 3:39AM

Growing protectionism, increased tariffs and Brexit-induced disruption are all adding stress to the global trade cycle and could spark a sudden downturn from which no major economy will be spared.

The US-China trade war and Brexit are dealing body blows to already weak global trade
Opinion | Rising interest rates mean the US Federal Reserve is back to the fundamentals, and that’s reason to celebrate

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases show the central bank is returning to the era of reliance on market fundamentals, ending the period of asset-friendly easy money.

27 Dec 2018 - 3:17AM

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases show the central bank is returning to the era of reliance on market fundamentals, ending the period of asset-friendly easy money.

Rising interest rates mean the US Federal Reserve is back to the fundamentals, and that’s reason to celebrate
Opinion | Four ways Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could reframe US-China relations at their G20 meeting

A bilateral US-China investment treaty to resolve conflict over market access and macroeconomic adjustments on savings would go a long way towards resolving differences. A global accord on cybersecurity and a permanent secretariat for bilateral dialogue would also be productive.

27 Nov 2018 - 4:02AM

A bilateral US-China investment treaty to resolve conflict over market access and macroeconomic adjustments on savings would go a long way towards resolving differences. A global accord on cybersecurity and a permanent secretariat for bilateral dialogue would also be productive.

Four ways Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could reframe US-China relations at their G20 meeting
Opinion | US inflation is set to rise. The Fed must act now

Stephen Roach says the trade war’s impact on global value chains and the tight US labour market will fan inflationary pressures of the current US economic upturn, so the Fed is right to press on with monetary tightening – and should, perhaps, even step it up

24 Oct 2018 - 1:56AM

Stephen Roach says the trade war’s impact on global value chains and the tight US labour market will fan inflationary pressures of the current US economic upturn, so the Fed is right to press on with monetary tightening – and should, perhaps, even step it up

US inflation is set to rise. The Fed must act now
Opinion | US-China marriage of convenience has fallen into codependency – can it avoid a messy divorce?

China’s shift in its growth model away from heavy savings has become a source of discomfort to the US but the relationship can be transformed into one of mutual interdependence.

27 Sep 2018 - 7:17PM

China’s shift in its growth model away from heavy savings has become a source of discomfort to the US but the relationship can be transformed into one of mutual interdependence.

US-China marriage of convenience has fallen into codependency – can it avoid a messy divorce?
The View | The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing report card is mixed – except for the rich

As the 10th anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme approaches, five lessons can be learned from its successes and shortcomings.

31 Jul 2018 - 10:31PM

As the 10th anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme approaches, five lessons can be learned from its successes and shortcomings.

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing report card is mixed – except for the rich
Donald Trump’s opponent in his trade war is actually economics, and he will certainly lose

The real roots of the US trade imbalance with China can be found in its low savings rate, even as it outspends its competitors in military budget. Trump’s trade war will exacerbate the problem at hand: this is power politics over fact-based policymaking.

26 Jun 2018 - 6:52PM

The real roots of the US trade imbalance with China can be found in its low savings rate, even as it outspends its competitors in military budget. Trump’s trade war will exacerbate the problem at hand: this is power politics over fact-based policymaking.

Donald Trump’s opponent in his trade war is actually economics, and he will certainly lose
Opinion | There is no bilateral solution for the United States’ multilateral dilemma

The United States and China appear to have backed away from the precipice of a trade war, but that framework of negotiations is flawed: a deal with any one country will do little to resolve America’s fundamental economic imbalances that have arisen in an interconnected world.

26 May 2018 - 11:42PM

The United States and China appear to have backed away from the precipice of a trade war, but that framework of negotiations is flawed: a deal with any one country will do little to resolve America’s fundamental economic imbalances that have arisen in an interconnected world.

There is no bilateral solution for the United States’ multilateral dilemma
Why the US has a weak case against China’s ‘unfair’ trade practices

The evidence of hostile trade practices that the US has levied against China ignores the diminishing threat of Chinese cyberespionage and the history of industrial policy among the US and its allies.

26 Apr 2018 - 8:50PM

The evidence of hostile trade practices that the US has levied against China ignores the diminishing threat of Chinese cyberespionage and the history of industrial policy among the US and its allies.

Why the US has a weak case against China’s ‘unfair’ trade practices
Trade war threat a reminder of the global risks to China’s 2050 growth plan

As Beijing throws itself into structural rebalancing of the economy, it must know the challenge is not just internal, but also shaped by the global economy and China’s relationships with other major nations.

6 Apr 2018 - 5:43PM

As Beijing throws itself into structural rebalancing of the economy, it must know the challenge is not just internal, but also shaped by the global economy and China’s relationships with other major nations.

Trade war threat a reminder of the global risks to China’s 2050 growth plan
Why leadership problems lie at the heart of the US-China trade conflict

China has leaned on Xi Jinping’s continued leadership to stay its economic course, but the US administration considers ‘staying the course’ on trade unacceptable

21 Mar 2018 - 5:17PM

China has leaned on Xi Jinping’s continued leadership to stay its economic course, but the US administration considers ‘staying the course’ on trade unacceptable

Why leadership problems lie at the heart of the US-China trade conflict
The US economy is far from sound, no matter what the hype

The recent stock market correction is no fleeting aberration. With its ultra-low saving rate, unrestrained spending and misguided policies, America is living off its future prosperity.

27 Feb 2018 - 3:01PM

The recent stock market correction is no fleeting aberration. With its ultra-low saving rate, unrestrained spending and misguided policies, America is living off its future prosperity.

The US economy is far from sound, no matter what the hype
US Republicans’ claims about the benefits of tax cuts have a credibility deficit
US Fed must move faster to raise rates and cut its balance sheet – before another crisis hits

With financial markets this frothy, central bankers must aim for a quick reset of crisis-mode policy interventions, and overblown fears of deflation should not hold them back

20 Jul 2018 - 2:55PM

With financial markets this frothy, central bankers must aim for a quick reset of crisis-mode policy interventions, and overblown fears of deflation should not hold them back

US Fed must move faster to raise rates and cut its balance sheet – before another crisis hits
The global economy is growing again, but there’s nothing normal about this recovery
China’s global ambitions can wait while it rebalances its economy
Trump is wrong: corporate tax cuts aren’t the best way to boost the US economy
If Trump does curb trade, he’d better get Americans to save more – a lot more
US and Japanese central bankers are in denial over the signs of an impending meltdown
How to save globalisation from its demise
How China can avoid a replay of Japan’s lost decades
China has stumbled in its financial reforms, but it’s still on the right path
China’s services sector is growing, but far too few Chinese are spending