Amid South China Sea tensions, what will the meeting between the US and China’s defence chiefs yield?
- Mark J. Valencia says the meeting could establish ground rules for what could prove to be a stormy period for US-China relations ahead
- The Chinese defence minister will also be looking to understand how entrenched and widespread anti-China sentiment is in the US government
Watch: US and China military leaders meet for South China Sea talks
China has responded in kind. In May, nuclear-capable Chinese bombers landed at Woody Island in the Paracels, which an air force statement said was training to improve its ability to “reach all territory, conduct strikes at any time and strike in all directions” and prepare for “the battle for the South China Sea”.
Military-to-military relations are perhaps the most significant dimension of US-China relations because they can be a stabilising force when relations in other spheres break down.
Given the worsening political and diplomatic relations between the two countries, the upcoming meeting could be critical in setting the tone for the near future.
Watch: Photos show near-collision between US and Chinese warships
So what does Wei want? First, he will want to discern whether Mattis is leaving the administration. Mattis is respected as a level-headed, wise and steadying influence on the more radical and unpredictable elements in the Trump administration. If Mattis’ departure is imminent, Wei would want to know if it is due to such differences, and who is likely to replace him.
Also, he would want to determine how firm and widespread in the upper echelons of the government the support for a more confrontational policy towards China is – and how that is likely to play out politically and militarily.
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Perhaps most important, he would want to assess the US attitude towards their on again-off again military-to-military relations. Does the US want them to continue as such, or to suspend them all together?
Finally, he would want to reaffirm how the two militaries can communicate if and when the situation really sours.
Acknowledgement by the two military leaders that their countries may be on the verge of a cold war could actually be positive in terms of avoiding unintended and unnecessary conflicts.
It could address the tense situation in the South China Sea where the US insists on its freedom of navigation operations and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance probes, which China considers threatening and may increasingly confront.
It is basically an agreement on communication and manoeuvring protocols. Although such an agreement will not prevent purposeful confrontations, perhaps China and the US will discuss each other’s intentions regarding such and how to mitigate them.
While the international community hopes the meeting will lead to some tension-lowering agreements or at least public statements from both, it may well be disappointed.
Instead, this meeting of military leaders will probably try to establish the ground rules for what may prove to be a very difficult and dangerous period for US-China relations, especially between their militaries.
Mark J. Valencia is an adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China