Opinion | Amid South China Sea tensions, what will the meeting between the US and China’s defence chiefs yield?

Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe will be in Washington this week to meet with US Defence Secretary James Mattis. What are they likely to discuss – or rather, what does Wei want?

Let’s look at the recent context. One meeting between the two in Beijing was cancelled amid rising tensions between their militaries, particularly in the South China Sea.

The two have since met but no agreements have been announced. Mattis continues to reassure the public by saying their “strategic competition does not imply hostility”, but he also added, “We will not surrender freedom of navigation”. This indicates that the US will not back off from its confrontational approach to China’s claims in the South China Sea.

Even on the heels of a near collision between the USS Decatur and a Chinese warship, the US Navy is considering a major show of force over several days in the Taiwan Strait, apparently an implementation of a more aggressive US policy towards China in the South China Sea. The first indication of this new policy surfaced on May 3 when the White House announced that there would be “near-term and long-term consequences” for China’s “militarisation” there.

The Pentagon then rescinded its invitation to China to participate in the 2018 Rim of the Pacific exercises because “China’s behaviour [in the South China Sea] is inconsistent with the principles and purposes of the [Rimpac] exercise”.

In June, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Mattis warned China that the rescinding of the invitation was a “relatively small consequence” and that “there are much larger consequences in the future.” On October 4, US Vice-President Mike Pence gave a speech criticising China across the board and highlighting the USS Decatur incident. More threateningly, the US has stepped up its nuclear-capable B-52 flights over the East and South China seas.