Opinion | On the South China Sea, US and Chinese military leaders continue to talk past each other

The long-anticipated top-level diplomatic and security dialogue between the United States and China has come and gone with no apparent progress on any of the issues bedevilling bilateral relations, especially the simmering tensions over the South China Sea. Glaringly, the two sides have not announced any agreement on risk-reduction measures, and sharp policy differences remain.

The meeting had originally been planned for September in Beijing, but had to be cancelled after China declined to make Wei available to Mattis. Given the rising tension between the two militaries, it is surprising that the dialogue even took place at all, and that China agreed to send its representatives to Washington for the rescheduled meeting. It would seem that either there were urgent security matters to discuss, or China wanted something – or both.

Perhaps the main purpose of China’s dialogue with the US was to prepare for an expected meeting between their leaders on the sidelines of the coming G20 summit in Argentina. Or perhaps Beijing wanted to ascertain if Mattis would stay in his post (there have been rumours that he is leaving Pentagon) and if not, which policymaker would be likely to replace him. China might also have been keen to determine if military relations between the two countries could continue to be productive.

Despite soothing rhetoric, there is clearly concern on both sides. Military-to-military relations are perhaps the most significant dimension of US-China relations because they can be a stabilising force when relations in other spheres break down. In June, President Xi Jinping called the US-China military relationship the “model component of our overall bilateral relations”. Mirroring Xi, the Chinese Defence Ministry has said it hopes the military relationship can become a “stabiliser” for overall ties.

According to General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the two militaries held a “tabletop exercise” about four months ago to increase transparency and reduce risk of miscalculation. After Mattis and Wei met on the sidelines of an Asian security conference in Singapore in October, Randall Schriver, a top Pentagon official for Asia, said such high-level talks were especially valuable during times of tension.