Opinion | China could edge the US out of the South China Sea by softening its approach to Southeast Asian rivals
- Mark J. Valencia says Southeast Asian nations are open to better ties with China and do not see US freedom of navigation operations as being in their interests
- By proposing joint development or mutual use of disputed areas and capitalising on its economic power, China could lure Southeast Asia away from the US
China and the US are now locked in a soft and hard power struggle for dominance of the region. China needs to defend itself from the threat of attack from the sea by the US. As Singapore’s late Lee Kuan Yew observed, China’s goal is to push the Americans away from its shores and near seas. More specifically, a RAND report projected that China wants to exclude American influence from China’s first – and second – rings of insecurity, which includes the Greater China region and all of its immediate periphery in the Asia-Pacific.
It can hasten the achievement of this objective by reassuring Southeast Asian countries that it has no intention of being a selfish and coercive hegemonic power. To do so, it must gradually change its approach to rival claimants in the South China Sea.
Although China has managed to build confidence and lower tension regarding its maritime disputes with some claimants like Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines, their positions remain far apart and their gap of trust can still be exploited by the US. Compromises – like joint development or implicit acceptance of at least mutual use of disputed areas – combined with China’s burgeoning economic investment, trade and aid – could move much of Southeast Asia away from the US and either into its fold or to neutral ground.