Why Hong Kong cannot afford to stand still and needs third runway

Clive Noffke of Lantau argued in his letter ("Numbers don't add up in runway plan", April 30) that a conventional traffic forecast based on past trends would probably be trumped by unforeseen market circumstances, and that the case for the third runway was, at best, questionable.

Underlining Mr Noffke's view about the vulnerability of our airport business is the conventional perception that an airport is a transportation infrastructure that primarily serves to meet the air transport needs of local residents. No wonder he questioned how our small population could possibly fill up one the biggest aviation hubs in the world.

In the case of Hong Kong, however, our airport is part of the economic infrastructure that supports the city's growth and development.

Despite its small size and limitations due to a lack of natural resources, Hong Kong has grown to become the eighth-largest trading economy in the world and the seventh-largest stock market by market capitalisation.

Our airport supports Hong Kong's four-pillar economic sectors - financial services, trading and logistics, tourism, and producer and professional services - which account for more than half of the city's gross domestic product. The volume of traffic we handle at the airport, in terms of both people and cargo, is a reflection of the thriving economic activities that take place in Hong Kong.

In other words, the case for the third runway does not rely solely on a methodologically robust traffic forecast.