Letters | Donald Trump must prevail over hawks like Bolton and prevent war with Iran

America should know from past experience that regime change does not guarantee the advent of democracy

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US President Donald Trump addresses a press conference in Brussels in July 2018, flanked by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (left) and National Security Adviser John Bolton. Of all the promises that Trump made in his campaign for the presidency, preventing another war is the one promise he must keep. Photo: AFP

Published: 2:00am, 27 May 2019Updated: 2:00am, 27 May 2019

Waging a war against Iran, or even thinking of doing so, is sheer madness. Donald Trump has thus far wisely rejected the warmonger National Security Adviser John Bolton’s outrageous advice. Waging another war in the Middle East, this time against Iran, would have not only disastrous consequences for the US but would also inflict incalculable human losses and destruction on our allies. Bolton was the architect of the devastating war in Iraq in 2003, which led to more than 4,000 US casualties and a cost exceeding US$2.4 trillion, allowed Iran to entrench itself in Iraq, and gave way to the rise of Islamic State.

The Iraq war would be child’s play compared to a war against Iran, which will put up a fight, far worse than all of the wars in the Middle East since 1948 combined. Much of the Middle East will be in flames. American casualties will be many times that of the Iraq war.

Trump should never listen to Bolton, who appears to be influenced by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, who advocate a harder line on Iran. It would seem they want to prevail over Iran at the expense of the United States, by dragging it into an unwinnable war. To think that regime change in Iran, as Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo continue to advocate, will usher in a democracy is an illusion that will never materialise.

The US efforts to establish democracies in Egypt and Libya in the wake of the Arab spring offer glaring examples of the dismal failure of such plans. To resolve the conflict with Iran by toppling the clergy though the use of force is not the answer. Even if Iran loses such a war, that in no way guarantees that regime change and democracy will follow. The solution lies through negotiation and only negotiation, until all conflicting issues that separate the US and its allies from Iran are settled peacefully.

We have paid and continue to pay dearly for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and we are still fighting the latter. Of all the promises that Trump made in his political campaign for the presidency, preventing another war is the one promise he must keep.