Letters | Why Taiwan joining the Quad is more hope than reality

While Taipei appears to have robust support from three Quad members, its joining the Quad is no sure thing and could bring it closer to the crisis it hopes to prevent

Taiwan

Letters

Published: 2:30pm, 12 May 2022

Why you can trust SCMP

Feel strongly about these letters, or any other aspects of the news? Share your views by emailing us your Letter to the Editor at [email protected] or filling in this Google form. Submissions should not exceed 400 words, and must include your full name and address, plus a phone number for verification.

In early March, Taiwanese Vice-President William Lai announced Taiwan’s desire to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which comprises the United States, Japan, Australia and India. Incorporating Taiwan into the grouping may have strategic value.

First, it could help draw a red line which China is warned not to cross, given the official recognition of Taiwan on par with some of the US’ closest allies and partners. Second, this categorisation could buttress the Quad’s determination to counterbalance China’s influence.

Coordinated efforts ranging the gamut – diplomacy, economic activities and intelligence sharing – could cement mutual ties. It could also make Chinese leaders think twice before launching military assaults against Taiwan.

Essentially, for Taiwan, the membership ticket lies not in its enthusiasm but in the resolve of Quad members. In the US’ 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Taiwan was hailed as one of America’s “leading regional partners”. The US further underscored its intent to collaborate with regional partners “to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has backed Taiwan’s attendance at the World Health Assembly as an observer, voiced concerns over China’s increasing coercion against Taiwan and vowed to bolster Japan’s defence of its southwestern islands near Taiwan as tensions with China mount. Australia has been a keen supporter of Taiwan, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, his defence minister, warning against Beijing ratcheting up military coercion against Taipei.

However, it’s touch-and-go whether Taiwan will join the Quad, as India has yet to express its vocal support. New Delhi has enhanced economic ties, including discussions on a free-trade agreement, and fostered cooperation in education and research with Taipei. While India’s Act East Policy and Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy feature each other, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has refrained from issuing any statements in support of Taiwan.

02:20

Heightened tensions in Taiwan amid Russian invasion of Ukraine

Additionally, Quad membership for Taiwan could be read by Chinese leaders as a provocative action meant to contain China, potentially causing Beijing to lash out and step up its belligerence towards Taipei. To China, such a move would mean the end of the four Quad members’ one-China position. If the Quad is already seen by Beijing through a containment lens, Taiwan’s membership application could bring it closer to the very crisis it seeks to avert.

Taiwan’s desire to join the Quad should be noted, especially after the four members agreed that what is happening to Ukraine should not be allowed to happen in the Indo-Pacific. For the Quad to become the Quint, though, there remains a huge gap between hope and reality.

Huynh Tam Sang, international relations lecturer, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Ho Chi Minh City