Letters | Ukraine conflict: Mao’s insights on protracted war still hold lessons

Mao’s work on a long war of resistance against Japan may be applicable to the Ukraine war

As realpolitik considerations wear down support for Ukraine, there will be many losers and no winners

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A man enjoys an artwork featuring Mao Zedong at the M+ museum in the West Kowloon Cultural District. Photo: Felix Wong

Published: 2:30pm, 28 May 2022

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Eighty-four years ago, at the beginning of the Sino-Japanese War, chairman Mao Zedong published “On Protracted War”, which would prove prescient about the duration and outcome of the conflict. I think Mao’s essay is relevant when we look at the Ukraine conflict.

Just like China in the late 1930s, Russia is fighting a lonely war. In fighting to stop Nato’s eastward expansion, Russia has faced setbacks such as cutthroat economic sanctions and the transatlantic security alliance’s expansion with the possible addition of Sweden and Finland.

But with the timely rebound of the Russian currency and Europe’s energy dependence, Russia can afford to wait. The high cost of living, especially in western Europe, could eventually change public opinion and the perception of Nato.

Even supporters of Ukraine, such as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, are facing challenging political realities – Scotland and Northern Ireland might slowly be moving away from the United Kingdom. Recent local elections have consolidated Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s position and strengthened her resolve to push through a second independence referendum.

The long-term trend may be for a more pragmatic western Europe, and bread-and-butter issues might prevail over the temporary public sympathy for the actor-turned-President Volodymyr Zelensky. The only solution for Ukraine is neutrality; it would be unsustainable for Zelensky to keep on begging for billions.

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Letters | Ukraine conflict: Mao’s insights on protracted war still hold lessons