Letters | Mainland China and Taiwan must realise war isn’t an inevitability
- Biden’s statement on the US defending Taiwan has upped the ante in the Taiwan Strait. However, people in Taiwan should realise that the main theatre of war would be their island
- Meanwhile, mainland China needs to exercise restraint and rid itself of the victim mentality about being goaded into war by external forces
However, mainland China shouldn’t harbour any illusions that the US and its treaty ally Japan will stand idly by if military conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. Instead, mainland China should assume that the pair would get involved militarily. Beijing should incorporate the implications of this into its strategic calculus while never giving up on seeking a peaceful resolution when the cross-strait status quo no longer holds.
On the one hand, abandoning strategic ambiguity could encourage hardliners in Taiwan to force a referendum on the subject of independence. This would ensure that mainland China would intervene militarily, even in the face of American and Japanese military involvement.
The Tsai Ing-wen administration, despite its independence-leaning appearances, has so far refused to test mainland China’s resolve. However, as Taiwan is a vivid democracy, the prospect of American and Japanese military commitment could inadvertently embolden independence hardliners to force the hand of the government of Taiwan and in effect legally abandon the cross-strait status quo.
Unless the hidden agenda is to take mainland China to war now instead of later when it grows too powerful, the US and Japan should articulate to the public in Taiwan that however such a war plays out, the main theatre would be their island and the primary costs borne by them.