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The US midterm elections on November 8 will be a referendum on former US president Donald Trump, whether traditional Republicans like it or not.
In September, Trump and his allies launched a new super PAC (political action committee), Maga Inc, as a way to fund Republican candidates in elections against Democrats. Trump has shown a knack for picking his horses. He is backing and endorsing Republicans all over the map in what the BBC has called an “extraordinary endorsement spree”, and his candidates have a good track record of winning races. The Trump effect will be tested on November 8.
The spotlight in the upcoming elections is on Elise Stefanik, a New York Republican. She emerged as the Republican Party’s new No 3 in the House of Representatives after Liz Cheney – a staunch Trump critic particularly over the January 6 Capitol riot – was dethroned from the party’s House leadership.
Trump calls Stefanik “one of my killers”; she was his biggest defender on the House Intelligence Committee during his first impeachment trial. Stefanik is expected to survive the midterms. The Republicans’ motto at the moment can be summed up as “Trump or perish”, although there seems to be consensus among Republicans that Trump should wait until after the midterms to announce his bid for the presidency in 2024.
The Republicans are likely to take control of both the House and the Senate in a red wave. In a month, we will know by what margins.
Iveta Cherneva, Sofia, Bulgaria
A child holding a Chinese flag sits on the ground at Tiananmen Square on Chinese National Day, in Beijing on October 1. Photo: EPA-EFE
Is China willing to stand up for a larger global cause?
China marked its 73rd National Day on October 1, which makes it a good time to reflect on the country’s global purpose. Its future orientation remains unclear, caught as it is between inevitable challenges and its immense potential. Much depends on China’s intentions.
Growing middle and small powers look to China as the main basis of economic and financial salvation but not so much because of a belief in China’s ideological superiority. Beijing’s intentions and purposes are confusing and sometimes contradictory. While it appears firm in its quest to shape an alternative global order, its methods have alienated many around the world and fuelled uncertainties.
If China chooses a low-key approach to its dream of national rejuvenation by 2049 and adopts a gradual transition to openness and democracy, the returns will be greater and arrive faster than if it continues its conventional approach. The United States might be late to the game and at times dysfunctional in facing China and defending its global leadership, but it has a more persuasive card when calling for global commitment both in projecting the common fear of China and in supporting Washington’s entrenched values.
Geopolitical realities mean China will forever have to contend with threats from its east, southeast and even from Russia to the north.
Unless China drastically increases its power projection and capacities so it can challenge the US’ power structure right at its doorstep, it will remain secondary to Washington’s military supremacy for the next century at least. This presents Beijing with a quandary: China has the economic momentum in terms of volume and size, but to be a staying power, it will need a new ballgame in terms of values and principles.
China needs the West and the US more than the West needs China. Beijing hopes the West keeps to its premise of rules-based engagement, that it will not unilaterally violate these norms to start a war with China. Beijing must know that if a full-blown conflict were to commence, it would be either a serious miscalculation or Beijing’s fault for pushing the West too much. But it may be too late for Beijing to retreat, after decades of building enemies and stirring up local sentiment.
Ultimately, the biggest question is whether China is willing to stand for a broader global cause – not just a Chinese cause. Is Beijing prepared to allow broader interests to supersede its core national interests and the demands of the Chinese people? Does it have the mandate of its people and the cultural readiness to execute a task different from the past? It remains to be seen.
