Opinion | As US-China great power rivalry intensifies, smaller states in Southeast Asia seek a way to thrive, not just survive

From trade to the South China Sea and technology, the US and China increasingly find themselves at odds, with regional nations caught in the middle. Many are realising the importance of staying friendly with both but beholden to neither

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Acting US Secretary of Defence Patrick Shanahan (left) and Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe meet on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 31. Photo: AP

Published: 3:30am, 10 Jun 2019Updated: 7:22am, 10 Jun 2019

Small states matter in big-power rivalry. This was one key takeaway from the 18th Shangri-La Dialogue held recently in Singapore. As US-China rivalry intensifies, small states worry that their room for manoeuvre may diminish and they may be compelled to make difficult choices. To address this, they should work together as a group to increase their leverage and raise their influence as they deal with major powers.

In his keynote speech at Asia’s premier security summit, host Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong argued that while small states may seem powerless in the face of two opposing elephants, they are not entirely without agency. By deepening economic cooperation, strengthening regional integration and building up multilateral institutions, regional countries can develop a collective position on issues from trade and security to technology.

However, refraining from taking sides also requires not being actively pressured to do so. Given the brewing great-power tussle, Lee said it is not unlikely for a country to be asked by one power or the other, “Are you my friend or not my friend?”

To this, he gave a thoughtful response: “Well, I am friends with you, but I have many friends and that is the way the world has to be. If it were not, I think it would be a much unhappier world.”

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong argues that while small states may seem powerless in the face of two opposing elephants, they are not entirely without agency. Photo: Xinhua

His answer resonates with regional attitudes towards major-power contests. Southeast Asia is no stranger to the great game. Partitioned by colonial powers before gaining independence, occupied during World War II and split by ideology during the cold war, the region witnessed how unbridled great-power contests could bring turmoil.

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