As US-China great power rivalry intensifies, smaller states in Southeast Asia seek a way to thrive, not just survive
- From trade to the South China Sea and technology, the US and China increasingly find themselves at odds, with regional nations caught in the middle. Many are realising the importance of staying friendly with both but beholden to neither
However, refraining from taking sides also requires not being actively pressured to do so. Given the brewing great-power tussle, Lee said it is not unlikely for a country to be asked by one power or the other, “Are you my friend or not my friend?”
To this, he gave a thoughtful response: “Well, I am friends with you, but I have many friends and that is the way the world has to be. If it were not, I think it would be a much unhappier world.”
His answer resonates with regional attitudes towards major-power contests. Southeast Asia is no stranger to the great game. Partitioned by colonial powers before gaining independence, occupied during World War II and split by ideology during the cold war, the region witnessed how unbridled great-power contests could bring turmoil.
Eager to keep their strategic autonomy, countries in the region have established multiple regional mechanisms around the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and object to what they see as efforts to undermine its centrality. They invest to keep all major powers engaged and resist pressures to fall under one power’s umbrella.
But the US-China contest may just test their mettle. As chief providers of both economic and security goods, growing enmity between the two is creating serious dilemmas for the region. From trade and intellectual property rights, and navigational and overflight freedoms, to cyberspace and 5G, the US and China increasingly find themselves at opposite poles, with regional countries getting caught in the middle.
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Southeast Asia continues to cautiously navigate relations with both powers, with some trends becoming apparent. Open, inclusive, flexible, comprehensive and resource-backed initiatives will have more appeal, while calls to discredit actors or initiatives without irrefutable evidence or better alternatives will go unheeded.
Regional countries will continue to diversify their economic and security partners and avoid being beholden to one. While external pressure may create cracks in the regional association, it may also compel it to turn more inward and further buttress its centrality.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, a lecturer on Chinese Studies at Ateneo de Manila University and contributing editor (reviews) for the Asian Politics and Policy Journal. He also sits on the Board of the Philippine Association for China Studies