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Hong Kong’s extradition protests may have given Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, a boost Beijing won’t appreciate

  • Tsai Ing-wen’s support for Hongkongers has helped propel her through her party’s primaries and may bode well for her chances in the presidential election
  • In the long term, the Hong Kong protests, which vocalise anxieties about China shared by Taiwan, may further alienate Taipei and Beijing

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Protesters display placards during a demonstration in Taipei on June 16 in support of the protests in Hong Kong against the extradition bill that would allow the transfer of fugitives from Hong Kong to mainland China. Photo: AFP
One of the most unintended consequences of the two massive protests in Hong Kong against the government’s extradition bill is the city’s emergence as a bellwether for Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election.

Since Taiwan’s first direct presidential election in 1996, cross-strait relations have dominated debate on the island, while Hong Kong issues have rarely been mentioned.

However, the three massive protests in the past two weeks are all related to Hong Kong’s relations with Beijing. On June 4, 180,000 people attended the annual candlelight vigil in Victoria Park to mark the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Then, over 1 million people took to the streets on June 9 and nearly 2 million came out again on June 16 to protest against the Hong Kong government’s extradition bill, which if passed would allow the transfer of fugitives from Hong Kong to mainland China.

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These developments may have alarmed people in Taiwan, who have witnessed years of declining freedoms in Hong Kong since the handover on July 1, 1997. Many Taiwanese fear that Hong Kong today will be their tomorrow if they are forced to accept Beijing’s terms for reunification.
The extradition bill has been widely opposed by legal professionals, academics, student activists and the business community. The millions who marched against the bill reflect the widespread distrust of China’s judicial system and the belief that their freedom and liberties will be further curtailed, despite Beijing’s promise otherwise.
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