US or China? Why Washington might not like Southeast Asian nations’ response
- Amid growing Sino-US rivalry, Southeast Asian countries are stuck in the middle, enjoying Chinese economic aid and tech but also US military support. If America keeps making demands, it may simplify their choice when push comes to shove
As the US-China contest for regional dominance intensifies, officials and analysts alike have warned that Southeast Asian countries might eventually have to choose between the two. For some, that day is dawning. For years, many have tried to hedge their bets, producing awkward inconsistencies in foreign policy. Some still do so.
Of course, it is not “all or nothing” – at least for now. But, eventually, the choices in critical spheres like economics and defence will become so clear and politically severe that countries will reach a tipping point.
The contestants have made the choice increasingly stark. In October 2018, US Vice-President Mike Pence gave an “it’s us or them” speech, criticising China across the board and contrasting its behaviour and values with those of the US.
Implementation of the new US Indo-Pacific Strategy will press its friends and allies even harder to join it. According to the new strategy, “The [Defence] Department is reinforcing its commitment to established Alliances and Partnerships, while also expanding and deepening relationships with new partners who share our respect for sovereignty, fair and reciprocal trade, and the rule of law.”
Obviously, the US intends to continue to mix politics with defence strategy and pressure relevant countries to choose between the US and China in defence.