Opinion | No trade war breakthrough? No problem – that Xi and Trump are meeting at the G20 should be seen as a win

Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have finally agreed to meet at the upcoming G20 Summit. The news was confirmed last Tuesday by the White House, not through a briefing, media gaggle or press release, but with a tweet from Trump that “extended” talks will happen at the end of the month when world leaders gather in Osaka, Japan.

Neither side is itching for a compromise that could be easily interpreted as weak or conciliatory. Quite the opposite. If there was a meter measuring market pain for both countries, it has not yet pinged high enough for either side to change its position. That is what it will take because the tariff feud has turned into a contest of wills over a much broader geopolitical struggle.

Trump is holding fast. On Tuesday night, he gloated over his tough China stance to an adoring crowd of 20,000 at his 2020 presidential campaign rally in Orlando, Florida. While his understanding of trade complexities can be charitably described as confused, he proudly declared that Americans were not paying for the tariffs, despite evidence to the contrary.

This followed not-so-veiled threats that, if the meeting did not happen, Trump would immediately impose additional tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports. He remains convinced that the US has the upper hand and that “China’s going to make a deal because they’re going to have to make a deal”.