Now more than ever, Hong Kong holds the key to China’s unification with Taiwan

Taiwanese regard the massive protests against the extradition bill as yet another sign ‘one country, two systems’ is failing. Hong Kong must show that democratic development is possible if Beijing wants Taiwan back in its fold

Mike Rowse

Published: 9:30am, 1 Jul 2019

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When the whole world looks to be collapsing in chaos, it is sometimes tempting to just give up, roll oneself into a ball and hide underneath the covers until the storm has passed. Indeed, various parts of the Hong Kong administration seem to have adopted this strategy recently. But, for those of us committed to China and Hong Kong, giving up is not an option.

All the major players have made serious errors in handling Hong Kong affairs in recent years. Both the central government and the local administration have been far too conservative in their policies on political reform. As a result, there is now a complete disconnect between the younger generation and the existing political machinery.

When a major issue arises, the young take to the streets because they cannot see any alternative way to get their point across. The central government thus has complete control of the special administrative region’s political system, but it does not work. What it should be aiming for is adequate control over a system that does.

The local administration has been far too ready to undertake fake or skimpy public consultation exercises, and to fudge the findings. Five years ago, the conclusion on political reform was that a highly restrictive method of choosing the chief executive was fine. This time around, less than three weeks was allowed for the most important subject for a generation and the reported conclusion misread community reaction by a country mile.

One dramatic effect of the recent upheaval in Hong Kong has been the spillover into Taiwan politics. Just a few months ago, opinion polls on the island showed the incumbent leader, Tsai Ing-wen, would not be the strongest candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party in the next general election, set for January 2020.

She had been criticised for – among other things – the deteriorating relationship with the mainland. The events in Hong Kong vindicated her approach to some extent and helped restore her credibility.

Final polling for the DPP primary took place from June 10-13, just when the demonstrations in Hong Kong were getting into their stride. The biggest march since 1997 had taken place on June 9 and the surrounding of the Legislative Council building on June 12. Against that background, Tsai won her party’s nomination on June 13.

Tsai regains some ground but youth vote may hold key to Taiwan’s election

The effect on the rival Kuomintang party – widely seen as more China friendly – has been no less striking. The five candidates competing for the nomination have all been busy distancing themselves from the “one country, two systems” formula that had been devised by Deng Xiaoping precisely to bring Taiwan back into the greater China fold.

One-time front runner Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu said it would apply on the island “over my dead body”. Foxconn billionaire Terry Gou said it had “failed in Hong Kong”. Even potential third-party candidate Ko Wen-je ruled out the formula, saying it would not be supported on the island.

So, the turmoil in Hong Kong has contributed to a situation where the entire political elite in Taiwan see peaceful reunion under the “one country, two systems” formula as a non-starter.

How, then, can we achieve reunification which President Xi Jinping said earlier this year was the inevitable outcome?

If the origin of the problem is perceived failure of the model in Hong Kong, then obviously the way forward must begin by creating an unmistakable success. The first step should be the introduction of universal suffrage for the chief executive election at the next opportunity in 2022.

The central government has already said there should be no more than three candidates, all pre-approved by Beijing. It may not be willing to accept a complete reversal of its own previous decision, but surely there is scope for a revamp of the election committee membership to make it more representative of the community.

The burden of proof could also be reversed. Instead of requiring majority approval for any candidate, a nominee could be deemed to be approved unless a majority vetoed him.

Reforms at the chief executive level must be accompanied by a firm plan to scrap the 30 sector-based functional constituencies. It might be too much to do this in one fell swoop, but 10 could be converted to general constituencies for each election cycle.

Can Beijing just let Hong Kong be Hong Kong?

Such a bold package would create a clear impression that Hong Kong had a democratic future. It should reassure local citizens, including the younger generation, that the concept of Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong was within our grasp.

It should also reassure Taiwan citizens that Hong Kong was moving closer to their model of governance and “one country, two systems” did not mean dragging them backwards towards ours.

Once a more representative government was in place, it could revisit the vexed subject of national security legislation and even, one day, extradition.

Getting approval for a revamp on this scale would not be easy and would require great courage and much hard work. But it’s either this or say goodbye to Taiwan for at least a generation.

Mike Rowse is the CEO of Treloar Enterprises

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