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Macroscope
Opinion
David Brown

Macroscope | Economic slowdown’s spread to Asia highlights the need for global policy coordination

  • The sluggishness of the global economy shows the need for broad policy coordination to head off the next financial crisis
  • The challenge will be creating conditions that are self-sustaining and which work for all economies, not just a few

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A cargo ship leaves the Tanjong Pagar container port in Singapore. The Lion City’s export-dependent economy has taken a hit from the trade war, with its economy contracting 3.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2019. Photo: AFP
The world is in trouble and policymakers need to act fast to stop the global slowdown turning into a widespread rout as it did during the 2008 crash. In theory, we should be living the dream right now as the world economy has enjoyed a great abundance of engineered central bank money over the last decade, interest rates have hit rock bottom and borrowing rates have been super-friendly to consumers and businesses alike.

But the capital-intensive, productivity-driven corporate sector revival is stalling and forecasters fret about what’s lurking round the next corner.

The world has descended into global growth anaemia. It has become pandemic: you can see it at the national level among the major economies and it is sweeping into regional spheres through trade transmission effects. Global economic confidence is becoming increasingly unresponsive and needs a major reboot as soon as possible.

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There should be no excuses for any of the major economies. Just because US core inflation may be showing some signs of short-term pickup does not let the US Federal Reserve off the hook. The Fed must press ahead with rate cuts not only for its own sake, but also to help jump-start the rest of the global economy. Market expectations of 0.75 per cent being lopped off US official rates this year are not outlandish.

The same applies to all major nations right now. Everyone needs to pull their weight in a way which works in concert, not at odds. The cracks are showing everywhere. The euro-zone economy is heading for trouble, Germany, France and Italy are slowing down sharply and the European Central Bank is under intense pressure to act again soon.

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Source: Markit / New View Economics
Source: Markit / New View Economics

Japan’s economy needs another major reboot, but it’s a challenge for policymakers where to start. The policy cupboard is pretty bare, but the Bank of Japan and the Japan’s Ministry of Finance must start working together to stop Japan’s slowdown from spiralling out of control.

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