Columnist

David Brown

David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics. Over a career spanning four decades in London, David held roles as chief economist in a number of international investment banks.

The World Financial Centre (right) and Jin Mao Tower emerge from the clouds during heavy rain in the financial district of Pudong in Shanghai, in May 2015. China is braced against a deluge of tariffs on its goods imposed by US President Donald Trump. Photo: Reuters

United States

China cannot weather the trade war with a tit-for-tat strategy

13 Aug 2018 - 10:30pm 24

A blank cheque for disbursing payment on behalf of federal agencies in the US. China is a major investor of US Treasury securities. According to official figures for May, China held up to US$1.2 trillion dollars in US Treasury debt, accounting for close to 20 per cent of all foreign holdings of US Treasuries. Photo: AP

Opinion

Time for China to play hardball with US Treasuries in the trade war

7 Aug 2018 - 2:31pm 103

A worker looks on as a crane lifts steel pipes for export at a port in Lianyungang, China on July 15. China’s steel and aluminium exports have been among the first targets for tariffs by the Trump administration. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

Chinese growth could fall to 5 per cent as trade war takes its toll

30 Jul 2018 - 10:35pm 16

Chinese employees sew US flags at a factory in Fuyang in China’s eastern Anhui province on July 13. As the Sino-US trade war rages, China’s economy is being increasingly squeezed. Photo: AFP

Opinion

How Donald Trump’s policies could trigger an economic earthquake

23 Jul 2018 - 10:42pm 2

Pedestrians in Beijing’s central business district. A full-blown trade war could sink China’s markets even deeper into bear territory, hitting financial wealth expectations and consumer confidence hard. China’s policy planners must work doubly hard to make up for the shortfall in demand. Photo: AFP

Opinion

In times of trade war, who will buy Chinese goods? The Chinese

16 Jul 2018 - 10:28pm

US President Donald Trump leaves the stage after speaking at a rally in Great Falls, Montana, in support of local Congressional and Senate candidates. The full effects of Chinese retaliation on states which supported Trump, and the effects these measures will have on Trump’s support in those states, remain to be seen. Photo: AP

United States

Trump staring down barrel of yuan devaluation in trade war

9 Jul 2018 - 10:32pm

Visitors ride a roller coaster during a trial run at Shanghai Disneyland on June 8. Loose central bank monetary policies fuelled a rush to emerging markets for higher returns, but the investment climate is changing. Photo: Bloomberg

Opinion

Time to step off the emerging markets joyride

3 Jul 2018 - 1:01am

An anti-Brexit campaigner from global activism group Avaaz sets up cardboard cut-outs of Conservative Party MPs, who are known to support remaining in the European Union, outside Parliament in Westminster, London, on June 20. Photo: Reuters

Insight & Opinion

Why Brexit is more likely to be horror show than a happy ending

25 Jun 2018 - 10:26pm 5

A pedestrian walks in front of a board displaying the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar in Tokyo on February 6, 2017. The yen has historically been a bellwether for Japanese investor confidence on investing abroad. Photo: AFP

Opinion

Is the yen still a safe haven amid a global trade war?

26 Jun 2018 - 3:57am

US President Donald Trump listens during a G7 meeting on June 9 in Quebec. Trump’s contentious relationship with other world leaders was on display during the G7, raising additional doubts about whether the global community could come together again the way it did after the 2008 financial crisis to halt recession. Photo: Bloomberg

Opinion

Why has global economic ‘recovery’ failed so many people?

11 Jun 2018 - 10:37pm 4

China’s currency can do more to erode US dollar dominance through liberalisation and transparency, particularly in letting market forces determine its value. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

How China can improve the global appeal of its currency, to take on the US dollar

4 Jun 2018 - 10:29pm 6

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May arrives at a European Council meeting in Brussels, Belgium, in December 2017. The details of the UK’s exit from the European Union are still unclear. Photo: EPA-EFE

Opinion

Britain is in long-term economic decline, whether it leaves EU or not

28 May 2018 - 10:40pm 14

A euro sculpture stands near the former European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany. Photo: Bloomberg

Opinion

How political chaos in Italy could herald the end of European unity

21 May 2018 - 10:24pm 1

An employee works on the final assembly line at the Vauxhall plant in Luton, Britain, in April. The UK automotive industry, once the joke of British manufacturing, is now one of the jewels in Britain’s industrial crown, employing nearly one million workers. Brexit could change this overnight. Photo: Bloomberg

Opinion

Brexit is knocking out UK industry, and it may not bounce back

14 May 2018 - 10:33pm 20

The growing uncertainty is stripping Britain bare of its best future potential. Under Brexit’s cloud, de-industrialisation is picking up pace, Britain’s welfare state is under growing duress and the City of London – the jewel in the nation’s crown – continues to see a rush to the exits. Photo: AP

Opinion

Pain the only certainty in Britain’s confused Brexit plan

7 May 2018 - 10:58pm 1

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi arrives for an informal meeting of economic and financial affairs ministers in Tallinn, Estonia in September 2017. Photo: AFP

Opinion

Europe’s financial position is still perilous years after the debt crisis

30 Apr 2018 - 10:36pm

German Chancellor Angela Merkel walks past electricity-powered vehicles at the booth of the German car manufacturer BMW during her visit to the Frankfurt Auto Show in September 2017. Recent indicators show that German manufacturing growth is slowing in 2018. Photo: AP

Opinion

A tighter monetary belt might not be what Germany needs after all

23 Apr 2018 - 10:34pm

Missile fire lights up the Damascus sky on April 14 as US President Donald Trump announced air strikes against Syria in retaliation for the country's alleged use of chemical weapons. The possibility of a confrontation between the US and Russia, Syria’s ally, is threatening economic confidence globally. Photo: AP

Opinion

War drums – in Syria and on trade – strain global economic confidence

16 Apr 2018 - 11:01pm 1

A trader in the 10-year Treasury Note options pit at the CME Group in Chicago covers his face as he waits for a statement from the Federal Reserve Bank in 2011. Bond investors today are perplexed about where US Treasury yields are heading. Photo: Getty Images

Opinion

Bond market bulls and bears are prowling in the dark

9 Apr 2018 - 10:27pm

Trade tension are not welcomes in a global environment where we have yet to recover from the prior financial crash nearly a decade ago, writes David Brown. Photo: EPA

Opinion

Trump’s trade tensions could be the catalyst for the next financial crash

28 Mar 2018 - 3:04pm 15

Euro zone nations need to run fiscal deficits to help reflate the economy in the aftermath of ECB policy failure, writes David Brown. Photo: AFP

Opinion

European nations need fiscal steroids, not budgetary restraint

19 Mar 2018 - 10:33pm

German chancellor Angela Merkel looks on after addressing the annual World Economic Forum in January in Davos, Switzerland. Photo: AFP

Opinion

Europe must break free of German policy domination

12 Mar 2018 - 10:50pm 3

Monetary super-stimulus saved the global economy’s bacon over the last decade, but now the outside threat of an all-out global trade battle shunts markets onto full-blown red alert

Opinion

Fire, fury of global trade war could tip markets into major meltdown

23 Mar 2018 - 12:58pm 4

US markets could be under pressures amid rising interest rates as the world’s central bankers attempt to rein in policy ‘super-stimulus’ writes David Brown. Photo: AP

Opinion

Tuesday will offer clues if the Fed’s new chairman is a ‘Yellen 2.0’

26 Feb 2018 - 10:43pm

Recently has seen the first signs of possible disaster with the market in a short-lived free-fall. But the bulls are still living to fight another day. Photo: AP

Opinion

Financial markets sinking into rampant risk and ruin

19 Feb 2018 - 10:45pm

Political upheaval in the country and the possibility of an anti-EU government could spell trouble for investors

Opinion

Why investors in the euro must beware Italy’s Ides of March

12 Feb 2018 - 11:30pm

As far as asset allocation goes, there are few places left for investors to run and hide, writes David Brown. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

It’s game over, global markets have reached the tipping point

5 Feb 2018 - 11:04pm 4

A weaker currency is seen as a major boost for exporting nations. A man walks past a display showing symbols for world currencies on the exterior of a bank in Beijing. Photo: AP

Opinion

We’re back to currency wars, and here’s why that is bad news

30 Jan 2018 - 8:35am 5

Michael Douglas as Gordon Gekko in the 1987 film Wall Street. Photo: SCMP Handout

Opinion

Central banks have supported the super-rich for long enough

22 Jan 2018 - 10:48pm

With painful memories of the 1930s hyperinflation in mind, Germany may be about to pull the plug on the European Central Bank’s policy of loose liquidity

Opinion

Suddenly, inflation is the huge risk that threatens the EU

15 Jan 2018 - 10:35pm

US President Donald Trump displays his signature after signing his hallmark US$1.5 trillion tax reforms in the Oval Office in Washington on December 22, 2017. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

High stakes politics might mean 2018 is year of living dangerously

8 Jan 2018 - 10:52pm

A promised shake up of the US economy by President Donald Trump captured the imagination of stock market bulls last year. Photo: AP

Opinion

2018 could be a year of reckoning for global financial markets

1 Jan 2018 - 10:30pm

Securitisation, fiscal tightening, a secular decline in interest rates and shifting investor preferences have driven a 35-year bond rally which is fast reaching the end of the line. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

It’s the end of the line for the bond market bonanza

25 Dec 2017 - 1:31pm

Since beginning life in 1999, the single currency has traded in wide range. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

The euro’s lucky streak will come to an end in 2018

19 Dec 2017 - 2:31am

Tax cuts, tighter monetary policy and widening bond yield spreads could all make next year a good one for the US currency

Opinion

Why 2018 could be the year of the US dollar

11 Dec 2017 - 10:45pm 4

The days are numbered for the stock market boom, according to David Brown. Photo: Nora Tam

Opinion

It’s probably nothing ... but stocks aren’t responding to good news

5 Dec 2017 - 8:23am 2

It’s time to put man before machine before it’s too late. Photo: AFP

Opinion

How the march of technology threatens our very existence

27 Nov 2017 - 10:46pm

The stars of the European Union on banners flying outside the European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany. Photo: Bloomberg

Opinion

Will Europe’s economic miracle be derailed by an ECB power struggle?

3 Jul 2018 - 7:59pm

A prolonged UK recession is a possible outcome of a hard Brexit. Photo: EPA

Opinion

Britain’s woes are fast becoming a worst-case scenario

13 Nov 2017 - 10:34pm 9

The sun sets behind the European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany. The ECB is already hinting at the need to switch the focus to fiscal policy as the next big fix in a major downturn. Photo: AP

Opinion

Policymakers must change tack to avert the next crisis

6 Nov 2017 - 10:41pm

‘The trouble is the central banks are between a rock and a hard place and being driven into action for the sake of being seen to be in control’

Opinion

Central banks have issued their ‘amber alert’

31 Oct 2017 - 10:42am 3

An investor checks stock information on a mobile phone. For the small investor the danger now is getting squeezed into what could be the last legs of the rally. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

Nowhere to hide for small investors as market crash looms

23 Oct 2017 - 10:44pm 1

Storm clouds gather over the Hong Kong skyline. Our columnist says there is no shortage of risk events which could sour the feel-good factor for financial markets. Britain and Europe are spiralling towards a hard landing over Brexit; Catalan independence demands will be no cake-walk for political stability in Europe; while the threat of military conflict between America and North Korea is still an unquantifiable risk for global markets. Photo: Felix Wong

Opinion

Major central banks must act fast to prevent another global crash

17 Oct 2017 - 9:46am 1

Thousands of people march to protest the Catalan government's push for secession from the rest of Spain in downtown Barcelona on Sunday, October 8. Photo: AP

Opinion

Europe is on the cusp of a major market blowout

9 Oct 2017 - 10:36pm 3

German Chancellor Angela Merkel secured a fourth term in office during national elections held last month. Photo: AP

Opinion

Germany may be the biggest threat to European stability

3 Oct 2017 - 6:01am 8

A major miscalculation by the Federal Reserve could see 10-year Treasury yields spike to 5 per cent. Photo: AP

Opinion

The US bond market bull is at a major inflection point

26 Sep 2017 - 9:43am

‘The whispering campaign is already underway preparing Europe for the end to super-stimulus and the ECB already knows the consequences’

Opinion

Expect this grim reality as the ECB pulls the plug on cheap credit

19 Sep 2017 - 12:41am