David Brown

David Brown

David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics. Over a career spanning four decades in London, David held roles as chief economist in a number of international investment banks.

Latest from David Brown

Macroscope | Donald Trump’s trade wars could scupper the euro-zone’s fragile economic recovery. That’s the last thing both sides need

Supportive ECB policies and green-shoot growth in several European economies, as Germany successfully avoided a recession, are good news for the market. But the US threat of tariffs on French goods could portend an escalation of tensions.

9 Dec 2019 - 11:46PM

Supportive ECB policies and green-shoot growth in several European economies, as Germany successfully avoided a recession, are good news for the market. But the US threat of tariffs on French goods could portend an escalation of tensions.

Donald Trump’s trade wars could scupper the euro-zone’s fragile economic recovery. That’s the last thing both sides need
Macroscope | Markets think the worst may soon be over for the world economy. Governments must prove them right

Market crash fears are out of date. Recent business confidence numbers from the US, China and Germany show the global economy is not down and out. The world’s governments must seize the momentum and find new ways to fund sustainable recovery.

3 Dec 2019 - 4:19AM

Market crash fears are out of date. Recent business confidence numbers from the US, China and Germany show the global economy is not down and out. The world’s governments must seize the momentum and find new ways to fund sustainable recovery.

Markets think the worst may soon be over for the world economy. Governments must prove them right
Macroscope | As recession fears recede in the US, the golden days might be over for government bond markets

With US economic data suddenly looking brighter and positive noises being made in the trade war, risk reversals could be round the corner. After years as sanctuaries for investors, government bonds may finally lose their mojo in 2020.

26 Nov 2019 - 4:34AM

With US economic data suddenly looking brighter and positive noises being made in the trade war, risk reversals could be round the corner. After years as sanctuaries for investors, government bonds may finally lose their mojo in 2020.

As recession fears recede in the US, the golden days might be over for government bond markets
Macroscope | When Tesla sets up shop in Germany, it’s a sign of things going wrong with Europe

Europe’s common market is supposed be a level playing field. But as Germany remains a magnet for foreign capital – most recently Tesla’s – the gulf between Europe’s rich and poor will only widen, fuelling the EU’s existential crisis.

19 Nov 2019 - 4:19AM

Europe’s common market is supposed be a level playing field. But as Germany remains a magnet for foreign capital – most recently Tesla’s – the gulf between Europe’s rich and poor will only widen, fuelling the EU’s existential crisis.

When Tesla sets up shop in Germany, it’s a sign of things going wrong with Europe
Macroscope | Global stock markets are in line for a bumper 2020 after the doom and gloom of 2019

Markets, having priced in the worst outcomes of the trade war, a Trump impeachment and Brexit, now seek good news. As central banks ease policy, political risks recede and with a trade deal in sight, 2020 should be glorious.

11 Nov 2019 - 10:15PM

Markets, having priced in the worst outcomes of the trade war, a Trump impeachment and Brexit, now seek good news. As central banks ease policy, political risks recede and with a trade deal in sight, 2020 should be glorious.

Global stock markets are in line for a bumper 2020 after the doom and gloom of 2019
Macroscope | What the US, China and the rest of world need now is even more Fed stimulus

The US central bank is cutting interest rates and buying short-term Treasury bills with the aim of supporting the economy. This should give China more room to ease policy and stabilise the yuan, taking some heat out of the trade war.

5 Nov 2019 - 3:41AM

The US central bank is cutting interest rates and buying short-term Treasury bills with the aim of supporting the economy. This should give China more room to ease policy and stabilise the yuan, taking some heat out of the trade war.

What the US, China and the rest of world need now is even more Fed stimulus
Macroscope | The trade war’s end would bring huge dividends to China, the US and the global economy at large

China’s economy could return to 7 per cent annually, the US could near 4 and the global economy could go back to 5. But this would depend not just on the trade war ending, but appropriate stimulus and reform measures afterwards.

29 Oct 2019 - 1:18AM

China’s economy could return to 7 per cent annually, the US could near 4 and the global economy could go back to 5. But this would depend not just on the trade war ending, but appropriate stimulus and reform measures afterwards.

The trade war’s end would bring huge dividends to China, the US and the global economy at large
Macroscope | The US, Britain and China are leading the retreat away from austerity. It’s time other economies, especially in Europe, followed

Deficit spending among major economies steadily declined in the years after the global financial crisis ended. With economies around the world slowing, major players – Germany in particular – should abandon austerity now.

22 Oct 2019 - 11:00AM

Deficit spending among major economies steadily declined in the years after the global financial crisis ended. With economies around the world slowing, major players – Germany in particular – should abandon austerity now.

The US, Britain and China are leading the retreat away from austerity. It’s time other economies, especially in Europe, followed
Macroscope | After trade war progress, the Fed should cut interest rates, boost its QE holdings and lower the dollar’s value to boost the US economy

The Fed should not only cut interest rates, but up its quantitative easing holdings, thus driving down the dollar. This, and a trade war ceasefire, would not only boost the US economy but the global economy and trade as a whole.

15 Oct 2019 - 2:12AM

The Fed should not only cut interest rates, but up its quantitative easing holdings, thus driving down the dollar. This, and a trade war ceasefire, would not only boost the US economy but the global economy and trade as a whole.

After trade war progress, the Fed should cut interest rates, boost its QE holdings and lower the dollar’s value to boost the US economy
Macroscope | Under threat of impeachment, Trump should aim for a win on the economy – by ending the US-China trade war

There’s no better way for Trump to fight off the threat to his presidency and increase the chances of his re-election by focusing on improving the US economy and global outlook. The damaging trade war must end.

8 Oct 2019 - 4:44AM

There’s no better way for Trump to fight off the threat to his presidency and increase the chances of his re-election by focusing on improving the US economy and global outlook. The damaging trade war must end.

Under threat of impeachment, Trump should aim for a win on the economy – by ending the US-China trade war
Macroscope | Europe must ignore naysayers, including the US, and loosen the fiscal and monetary purse strings to stave off recession

Europe’s emphasis on austerity and fiscal stabilisation since the global financial crisis is not working. With a recession and no-deal Brexit looming, it’s time for the ECB and European governments to loosen the strings.

1 Oct 2019 - 3:22AM

Europe’s emphasis on austerity and fiscal stabilisation since the global financial crisis is not working. With a recession and no-deal Brexit looming, it’s time for the ECB and European governments to loosen the strings.

Europe must ignore naysayers, including the US, and loosen the fiscal and monetary purse strings to stave off recession
Macroscope | The ball is in China’s court. It must take the initiative, end the trade war and save the global economy

The US-China trade war, Brexit and tensions in the Gulf could add up to a perfect storm for the global economy. The world can’t count on Trump. Now, more than ever, Beijing must take the lead.

24 Sep 2019 - 2:28AM

The US-China trade war, Brexit and tensions in the Gulf could add up to a perfect storm for the global economy. The world can’t count on Trump. Now, more than ever, Beijing must take the lead.

The ball is in China’s court. It must take the initiative, end the trade war and save the global economy
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s trade war can’t solve America’s problems, but it is creating plenty for the global economy

Since Donald Trump launched his trade war US trade and budget deficits have only grown, and now the US economy is slowing. Better to tame runaway US consumerism and start policy coordination with other major powers to stave off a recession.

17 Sep 2019 - 3:33AM

Since Donald Trump launched his trade war US trade and budget deficits have only grown, and now the US economy is slowing. Better to tame runaway US consumerism and start policy coordination with other major powers to stave off a recession.

Donald Trump’s trade war can’t solve America’s problems, but it is creating plenty for the global economy
Macroscope | Global economic slowdown is China’s opportunity to take the initiative in settling the trade war and easing tensions

China should set a new range for its currency and use the rest of its reflationary tools to reach its 2019 growth target. It should also lead the way in seeking reconciliation at a time when the trade war is hurting everyone.

10 Sep 2019 - 12:35PM

China should set a new range for its currency and use the rest of its reflationary tools to reach its 2019 growth target. It should also lead the way in seeking reconciliation at a time when the trade war is hurting everyone.

Global economic slowdown is China’s opportunity to take the initiative in settling the trade war and easing tensions
Macroscope | Why China must be prepared for Brexit and the possibility of another European crisis

Germany’s economy is flashing warning signs and with a no-deal Brexit imminent, contagion might spread across Europe and the world. The Chinese economy, already under stress from the US trade war, is vulnerable.

2 Sep 2019 - 10:32PM

Germany’s economy is flashing warning signs and with a no-deal Brexit imminent, contagion might spread across Europe and the world. The Chinese economy, already under stress from the US trade war, is vulnerable.

Why China must be prepared for Brexit and the possibility of another European crisis
Macroscope | Falling stocks and a slumping global economy mean a welcome return to economic stimulus, as austerity and deregulation exit

Governments everywhere it seems are turning to stimulus to stave off the very real risk of global recession. This return to Keynesian-centred solutions must avoid boosting inequality again, though; governments should agree on a global ‘New Deal’.

26 Aug 2019 - 10:27PM

Governments everywhere it seems are turning to stimulus to stave off the very real risk of global recession. This return to Keynesian-centred solutions must avoid boosting inequality again, though; governments should agree on a global ‘New Deal’.

Falling stocks and a slumping global economy mean a welcome return to economic stimulus, as austerity and deregulation exit
Macroscope | Three ways China can use policy freedoms to shore up its economy and lead the world out of the mess

China’s policy options amid a slowing economy are to strike a face-saving trade deal with the US, devalue its currency and offer cheap loans at home. Beijing must use them all.

20 Aug 2019 - 1:18AM

China’s policy options amid a slowing economy are to strike a face-saving trade deal with the US, devalue its currency and offer cheap loans at home. Beijing must use them all.

Three ways China can use policy freedoms to shore up its economy and lead the world out of the mess
Macroscope | A trade war truce? The US and Chinese economies need one, but they also need domestic reforms to stave off global catastrophe

The US’ overreliance on expansionary fiscal policy when the country is already deeply in debt is a recipe for disaster. Beijing, for its part, needs reforms to spur domestic demand, not currency depreciation that could further provoke the US.

13 Aug 2019 - 3:52AM

The US’ overreliance on expansionary fiscal policy when the country is already deeply in debt is a recipe for disaster. Beijing, for its part, needs reforms to spur domestic demand, not currency depreciation that could further provoke the US.

A trade war truce? The US and Chinese economies need one, but they also need domestic reforms to stave off global catastrophe
Macroscope | Europe must fix its economy with stimulus to help the people, and member countries, that need it most

Neither austerity nor supply-side economics that put the haves before the have-nots will pull Europe out of its doldrums. To rescue the economy, Brussels must help its poorer members and spend on key infrastructure and social services.

5 Aug 2019 - 10:33PM

Neither austerity nor supply-side economics that put the haves before the have-nots will pull Europe out of its doldrums. To rescue the economy, Brussels must help its poorer members and spend on key infrastructure and social services.

Europe must fix its economy with stimulus to help the people, and member countries, that need it most
Macroscope | A post-Brexit ‘Boris boom’? Stimulus, the pound beating expectations and a possible EU deal may make it happen

Britain is an important enough trading partner for the EU to work out a late deal, much as it once did with Greece. Furthermore, Britain looks like it’s taking the gloves off and getting ready to spend big.

30 Jul 2019 - 3:05AM

Britain is an important enough trading partner for the EU to work out a late deal, much as it once did with Greece. Furthermore, Britain looks like it’s taking the gloves off and getting ready to spend big.

A post-Brexit ‘Boris boom’? Stimulus, the pound beating expectations and a possible EU deal may make it happen
Macroscope | With Brexit, Iran tensions and likely global financial instability, the US dollar is far from down and out

While the trade war, political uncertainties in the US and lower interest rates have hit sentiment surrounding the US dollar, risks in Europe and the prospect of higher oil prices could still trigger a flight to the US currency.

22 Jul 2019 - 10:26PM

While the trade war, political uncertainties in the US and lower interest rates have hit sentiment surrounding the US dollar, risks in Europe and the prospect of higher oil prices could still trigger a flight to the US currency.

With Brexit, Iran tensions and likely global financial instability, the US dollar is far from down and out
Macroscope | Economic slowdown’s spread to Asia highlights the need for global policy coordination

The sluggishness of the global economy shows the need for broad policy coordination to head off the next financial crisis. The challenge will be creating conditions that are self-sustaining and which work for all economies, not just a few.

15 Jul 2019 - 10:27PM

The sluggishness of the global economy shows the need for broad policy coordination to head off the next financial crisis. The challenge will be creating conditions that are self-sustaining and which work for all economies, not just a few.

Economic slowdown’s spread to Asia highlights the need for global policy coordination
Macroscope | The global economy needs an end to the US-China trade war and increased spending on public services – not more interest rate cuts

The world has been awash with easy money for a decade and interest rates are already dangerously low. To boost bonds and reward savers, global stimulus should involve more coordinated spending on infrastructure, health and education.

8 Jul 2019 - 11:16PM

The world has been awash with easy money for a decade and interest rates are already dangerously low. To boost bonds and reward savers, global stimulus should involve more coordinated spending on infrastructure, health and education.

The global economy needs an end to the US-China trade war and increased spending on public services – not more interest rate cuts
Macroscope | Wealthy financial markets must start to pay their way to help the poor, and a global ‘Robin Hood’ tax is the way to do so

When financial markets crashed in 2008, central banks were quick to slash interest rates and print money. The subsequent financial boom was basically subsidised by taxpayers. Now it’s time financial markets returned the favour.

2 Jul 2019 - 5:10AM

When financial markets crashed in 2008, central banks were quick to slash interest rates and print money. The subsequent financial boom was basically subsidised by taxpayers. Now it’s time financial markets returned the favour.

Wealthy financial markets must start to pay their way to help the poor, and a global ‘Robin Hood’ tax is the way to do so
Macroscope | As global growth slows, the world needs a new Marshall Plan, not lower interest rates

Central banks cutting rates will only feed the addiction to cheap money. Instead, the US, Europe and Japan must contribute more to global efforts, like infrastructure-spending plans, to reboot recovery and worldwide trade.

25 Jun 2019 - 3:36AM

Central banks cutting rates will only feed the addiction to cheap money. Instead, the US, Europe and Japan must contribute more to global efforts, like infrastructure-spending plans, to reboot recovery and worldwide trade.

As global growth slows, the world needs a new Marshall Plan, not lower interest rates
Macroscope | US Fed set to lead the way on lower interest rates, and China can benefit from another cut

As global economic conditions grow more worrisome, China should lower interest rates and ramp up spending in key areas such as health, welfare and pensions, thus motivating citizens to save less and get the consumer-driven economy moving.

10 Jun 2019 - 10:36PM

As global economic conditions grow more worrisome, China should lower interest rates and ramp up spending in key areas such as health, welfare and pensions, thus motivating citizens to save less and get the consumer-driven economy moving.

US Fed set to lead the way on lower interest rates, and China can benefit from another cut
Macroscope | China can still achieve its 6-6.5 per cent growth target – if it acts quickly to resolve the trade war

Beijing needs more overall policy loosening and stimulus measures to meet its goal, and Trump’s overzealous implementation of tariffs is China’s chance to prove itself to be a responsible economic power.

3 Jun 2019 - 10:21PM

Beijing needs more overall policy loosening and stimulus measures to meet its goal, and Trump’s overzealous implementation of tariffs is China’s chance to prove itself to be a responsible economic power.

China can still achieve its 6-6.5 per cent growth target – if it acts quickly to resolve the trade war
Macroscope | Why the Fed, and central banks in China, Europe and Japan should work together on rate cuts to stop the global economic rot

It can stonewall, but ultimately the US central bank will respond to economic conditions by lowering interest rates. Other major economies have a similar need for stimulus, so this should be a chance for global policy coordination.

27 May 2019 - 10:29PM

It can stonewall, but ultimately the US central bank will respond to economic conditions by lowering interest rates. Other major economies have a similar need for stimulus, so this should be a chance for global policy coordination.

Why the Fed, and central banks in China, Europe and Japan should work together on rate cuts to stop the global economic rot
Macroscope | The US will lose badly in the trade war with China and imperil the world economy if both countries don’t cooperate

US exports to China are down much more dramatically than China’s exports to the US. China has also sold more Treasury bonds in March, putting pressure on the already large US fiscal deficit.

21 May 2019 - 2:32PM

US exports to China are down much more dramatically than China’s exports to the US. China has also sold more Treasury bonds in March, putting pressure on the already large US fiscal deficit.

The US will lose badly in the trade war with China and imperil the world economy if both countries don’t cooperate
Macroscope | Should central banks be revamping their monetary policy frameworks and liaising more with governments?

With the trade war threatening already slowing global growth, it could be time for central banks to synchronise their efforts more closely with government fiscal goals. While crossing the line separating government and central banks might be harder in advanced economies, China may be better placed to do so.

13 May 2019 - 10:24PM

With the trade war threatening already slowing global growth, it could be time for central banks to synchronise their efforts more closely with government fiscal goals. While crossing the line separating government and central banks might be harder in advanced economies, China may be better placed to do so.

Should central banks be revamping their monetary policy frameworks and liaising more with governments?