David Brown

David Brown

David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics. Over a career spanning four decades in London, David held roles as chief economist in a number of international investment banks.

Latest from David Brown

Macroscope | Why China’s economy has the capacity to hit 6 per cent growth in 2022

While consensus forecasts for China in 2022 are modest, Beijing is in a much healthier financial position than Washington and can afford more stimulus this year. When US financial credibility is looking overstretched, Chinese inflation is more subdued and there is room for more interest rate cuts.

While consensus forecasts for China in 2022 are modest, Beijing is in a much healthier financial position than Washington and can afford more stimulus this year. When US financial credibility is looking overstretched, Chinese inflation is more subdued and there is room for more interest rate cuts.

17 Jan 2022 - 2:30PM
Opinion | An end to the US-China trade war is the world’s best hope for long-term pandemic recovery

As global growth slows, the US must increase government spending and taxation, while China can pick up the remaining slack through heavier investment spending. Most importantly, a return to strong US-China bilateral trade would do much to restore economic confidence.

As global growth slows, the US must increase government spending and taxation, while China can pick up the remaining slack through heavier investment spending. Most importantly, a return to strong US-China bilateral trade would do much to restore economic confidence.

11 Jan 2022 - 3:57AM
Macroscope | With no Plan B, the global economy must brace itself for another ‘black swan’ event

A new Covid-19 variant, rampant inflation, a financial crash and climate disasters are just some of the potential crises that could sink tentative global recovery. Overstretched governments and central banks cannot afford to be complacent.

A new Covid-19 variant, rampant inflation, a financial crash and climate disasters are just some of the potential crises that could sink tentative global recovery. Overstretched governments and central banks cannot afford to be complacent.

3 Jan 2022 - 3:30PM
Macroscope | China needs more stimulus in 2022 to sustain its economic recovery

Diverging policy priorities in Washington and Beijing and the looming prospect of interest rate increases could put the renminbi under pressure. There is a strong argument for another big push in fiscal stimulus to plug persistent gaps in demand.

Diverging policy priorities in Washington and Beijing and the looming prospect of interest rate increases could put the renminbi under pressure. There is a strong argument for another big push in fiscal stimulus to plug persistent gaps in demand.

27 Dec 2021 - 6:26PM
Macroscope | Why central banks must do more to tighten their belts

The world has suffered too many crash and pandemic misfortunes, and needs interest rates at the right level to deal with future shocks. Central banks aren’t targeting output, inflation and jobs so much as trying to normalise rates for better monetary traction.

The world has suffered too many crash and pandemic misfortunes, and needs interest rates at the right level to deal with future shocks. Central banks aren’t targeting output, inflation and jobs so much as trying to normalise rates for better monetary traction.

21 Dec 2021 - 5:06AM
Macroscope | Higher interest rates loom as Federal Reserve faces the music on inflation

If the Fed succumbs to pressure to act quickly on inflation, higher interest rates will emerge in the US and spread across the globe. Even if gradualism wins the day, though, the days of easy money and low interest rates are almost certainly coming to an end.

If the Fed succumbs to pressure to act quickly on inflation, higher interest rates will emerge in the US and spread across the globe. Even if gradualism wins the day, though, the days of easy money and low interest rates are almost certainly coming to an end.

13 Dec 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | In China and Europe, the work of policy super stimulus is not over yet

Supply-side logjams, rising inflation and the Omicron Covid-19 variants are headwinds to global growth. China and Germany are well placed to benefit once normal business conditions return, but keeping monetary and fiscal policy conditions loose will help fuel domestic consumption in the interim in China at least.

Supply-side logjams, rising inflation and the Omicron Covid-19 variants are headwinds to global growth. China and Germany are well placed to benefit once normal business conditions return, but keeping monetary and fiscal policy conditions loose will help fuel domestic consumption in the interim in China at least.

29 Nov 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Improved US-China relations must translate into global trade growth

Trade must be high on the agenda for both countries as economic growth and the benefits of easy money grow steadily weaker. Global growth prospects are in urgent need of a reboot, and renewed US-China dialogue could pave the way for changes.

Trade must be high on the agenda for both countries as economic growth and the benefits of easy money grow steadily weaker. Global growth prospects are in urgent need of a reboot, and renewed US-China dialogue could pave the way for changes.

23 Nov 2021 - 4:49AM
Macroscope | The global supply chain crisis isn’t as bad as it looks

If 2021 has marked the year of the supply chain crisis, 2022 could easily end up as the year of oversupply. Amid volatile inventory cycles and uncertain demand conditions, central banks must be careful not to upset the markets with gratuitous rate hikes.

If 2021 has marked the year of the supply chain crisis, 2022 could easily end up as the year of oversupply. Amid volatile inventory cycles and uncertain demand conditions, central banks must be careful not to upset the markets with gratuitous rate hikes.

16 Nov 2021 - 4:22AM
Macroscope | China’s economy is just taking a breather, not stalling

Growth has slowed to 4.9 per cent and housing market confidence has been hit hard by the Evergrande crisis, but the economy will speed up again as the global recovery gathers pace. Beijing’s growth target is within reach, but the economy will rely on export drivers.

Growth has slowed to 4.9 per cent and housing market confidence has been hit hard by the Evergrande crisis, but the economy will speed up again as the global recovery gathers pace. Beijing’s growth target is within reach, but the economy will rely on export drivers.

8 Nov 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Why the prospects for Britain’s ‘shortage economy’ look grim

While GDP rebounded by 5.5 per cent in the second quarter, there are already signs that retail activity is cooling. A major risk is that government measures introduced to kick-start the pandemic-hit economy will be withdrawn to get public-sector finances back into shape.

While GDP rebounded by 5.5 per cent in the second quarter, there are already signs that retail activity is cooling. A major risk is that government measures introduced to kick-start the pandemic-hit economy will be withdrawn to get public-sector finances back into shape.

2 Nov 2021 - 2:21AM
Macroscope | Central banks should resist hitting the panic button on inflation

A return to tougher monetary policy is not the answer as higher inflation this year will subside in 2022. This is a different world from the high inflation 1980s when annual consumer price rises reached 14.6 per cent in the US and interest rates surged to 22 per cent.

A return to tougher monetary policy is not the answer as higher inflation this year will subside in 2022. This is a different world from the high inflation 1980s when annual consumer price rises reached 14.6 per cent in the US and interest rates surged to 22 per cent.

25 Oct 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | How Joe Biden can pull off a US ‘economic miracle’ and secure his legacy

Biden’s quest is to ensure more US economic demand is met domestically without further inflaming tensions with China. Unemployment is falling and long-term growth prospects are looking up, but there is still much to do to lure lost productive capacity back home.

Biden’s quest is to ensure more US economic demand is met domestically without further inflaming tensions with China. Unemployment is falling and long-term growth prospects are looking up, but there is still much to do to lure lost productive capacity back home.

19 Oct 2021 - 5:15AM
Macroscope | Short-term energy price pain could be long-term climate change gain

The rise in oil and natural gas prices shouldn’t be a precursor to a supercharged inflation surge, and there is no reason for central banks to hit the panic button. Instead, the spike in prices could be a blessing in disguise if it hastens the switch to a zero-carbon world.

The rise in oil and natural gas prices shouldn’t be a precursor to a supercharged inflation surge, and there is no reason for central banks to hit the panic button. Instead, the spike in prices could be a blessing in disguise if it hastens the switch to a zero-carbon world.

12 Oct 2021 - 3:30AM
Macroscope | China must boost fiscal stimulus as global and domestic challenges loom

Recent Chinese economic data and global trade figures are an early warning signal that global recovery is slowing in the face of several lingering problems. China should not turn to much looser monetary policy to get faster results, given that fiscal expenditure can be increased without great damage to government finances.

Recent Chinese economic data and global trade figures are an early warning signal that global recovery is slowing in the face of several lingering problems. China should not turn to much looser monetary policy to get faster results, given that fiscal expenditure can be increased without great damage to government finances.

4 Oct 2021 - 11:56PM
Macroscope | China Evergrande debt crisis shows the need to fix global capitalism’s flaws

The property giant’s woes reflect lingering global problems with excess leverage and paltry regulation. Policymakers worldwide should be intervening more with tougher regulation, greater prudential oversight and improved transparency to ensure global stability.

The property giant’s woes reflect lingering global problems with excess leverage and paltry regulation. Policymakers worldwide should be intervening more with tougher regulation, greater prudential oversight and improved transparency to ensure global stability.

4 Oct 2021 - 7:31PM
Macroscope | Inflation is not the worry the US Fed, and the markets, suppose

The rise in US CPI unexpectedly slowed in August, which will ease pressure on the Fed to cut short its support for the US economy earlier than planned. Given the pandemic’s lingering impact on demand and the global supply chain, inflation is unlikely to wreak havoc the way it did four decades ago.

The rise in US CPI unexpectedly slowed in August, which will ease pressure on the Fed to cut short its support for the US economy earlier than planned. Given the pandemic’s lingering impact on demand and the global supply chain, inflation is unlikely to wreak havoc the way it did four decades ago.

21 Sep 2021 - 6:01AM
Macroscope | Why the era of easy money could be with us much longer than expected

The long-term damage from the pandemic, nagging economic uncertainties and rising credit default risks mean major industrial nations could be stymied on tighter policy for some time.

The long-term damage from the pandemic, nagging economic uncertainties and rising credit default risks mean major industrial nations could be stymied on tighter policy for some time.

13 Sep 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | British economic recovery looks good on paper, but serious problems are piling up

Economic confidence is high, employment conditions are bouncing back and retail spending is rebounding. But scratch beneath the surface and it’s a different story.

Economic confidence is high, employment conditions are bouncing back and retail spending is rebounding. But scratch beneath the surface and it’s a different story.

7 Sep 2021 - 2:33AM
Macroscope | As China’s economy slows, can consumers pick up the slack?

Despite a slowdown, the economy can still level out at around 6 per cent growth in the next few years. But Beijing needs to keep consumer confidence pumped up with more fiscal stimulus if it wants consumers to lead a growth surge.

Despite a slowdown, the economy can still level out at around 6 per cent growth in the next few years. But Beijing needs to keep consumer confidence pumped up with more fiscal stimulus if it wants consumers to lead a growth surge.

30 Aug 2021 - 3:51PM
Macroscope | Why the next move for China’s interest rates should be up, not down

The economic slowdown is consistent with longer-term trends of the GDP stabilising to a more sustainable 6 per cent growth. There’s no need for Beijing to panic – it has done enough and anyway can ill-afford to cut rates just when the Fed is expected to tighten policy.

The economic slowdown is consistent with longer-term trends of the GDP stabilising to a more sustainable 6 per cent growth. There’s no need for Beijing to panic – it has done enough and anyway can ill-afford to cut rates just when the Fed is expected to tighten policy.

24 Aug 2021 - 9:15AM
Macroscope | Why China’s yuan still has work to do to oust US dollar as world’s reserve currency

If Beijing wants to win wider confidence in the yuan, it has a major hearts and mind campaign on its hands. The crackdown on China’s hi-tech sector will not help in the short term but, with the right market-friendly policies in place, the yuan’s future is bright.

If Beijing wants to win wider confidence in the yuan, it has a major hearts and mind campaign on its hands. The crackdown on China’s hi-tech sector will not help in the short term but, with the right market-friendly policies in place, the yuan’s future is bright.

16 Aug 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Fed watch: the days of easy money are ending and markets must be prepared

Judging by the hints coming from British policymakers, the countdown to higher global interest rates seems to have begun. The perception is growing that the Fed is already behind the curve and that some pre-emptive tightening in US interest rates is overdue.

Judging by the hints coming from British policymakers, the countdown to higher global interest rates seems to have begun. The perception is growing that the Fed is already behind the curve and that some pre-emptive tightening in US interest rates is overdue.

10 Aug 2021 - 3:30AM
Macroscope | How the US and China can bring recovery all around: better trade relations

With US President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better programme and Beijing’s dual circulation strategy, both countries are looking inward to boost economic growth. But without both countries working in concert, the recovery risks exacerbating global imbalances.

With US President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better programme and Beijing’s dual circulation strategy, both countries are looking inward to boost economic growth. But without both countries working in concert, the recovery risks exacerbating global imbalances.

2 Aug 2021 - 11:58PM
Macroscope | A US-China-Europe trade deal is what financial markets need

Given the recovery in world trade growth this year, if the US, China and Europe can strike a deal to stop the slide towards global protectionism and boost opportunities for freer trade, markets could rocket.

Given the recovery in world trade growth this year, if the US, China and Europe can strike a deal to stop the slide towards global protectionism and boost opportunities for freer trade, markets could rocket.

26 Jul 2021 - 3:30PM
Macroscope | Pandemic worry is propping up the global bond rally, but not for long

Bond market bulls who have seen yields in retreat for the past 40 years should brace for a new phase, following the global growth recovery, inflation surge and imminent end to easy money.

Bond market bulls who have seen yields in retreat for the past 40 years should brace for a new phase, following the global growth recovery, inflation surge and imminent end to easy money.

20 Jul 2021 - 4:56AM
Macroscope | Why the US dollar will remain on the comeback trail for many months

While the dollar outlook has been cloudy in the recent years, it is fighting back, thanks to tougher interest rate tightening expected from the Fed and a brighter political climate under US President Joe Biden.

While the dollar outlook has been cloudy in the recent years, it is fighting back, thanks to tougher interest rate tightening expected from the Fed and a brighter political climate under US President Joe Biden.

13 Jul 2021 - 1:04AM
Macroscope | As Angela Merkel prepares to bow out, who will hold the euro zone together?

With growing discord over wealth disparities, hostility towards Brussels over the bungled Covid-19 vaccine roll-out and populist tendencies bubbling under the surface, there is a palpable sense of political divisions opening up again.

With growing discord over wealth disparities, hostility towards Brussels over the bungled Covid-19 vaccine roll-out and populist tendencies bubbling under the surface, there is a palpable sense of political divisions opening up again.

5 Jul 2021 - 10:39PM
Macroscope | Why US and Chinese consumer optimism is key to global post-pandemic recovery

Despite their differences, both the US and China will rely on consumer-led recovery to forge stronger growth in the next few years. Keeping consumers upbeat is vital, and a return to austerity should be avoided at all costs.

Despite their differences, both the US and China will rely on consumer-led recovery to forge stronger growth in the next few years. Keeping consumers upbeat is vital, and a return to austerity should be avoided at all costs.

29 Jun 2021 - 5:32AM
Macroscope | Inflation: why the world should keep calm and carry on

The panic over inflation risks should stop. The world is simply moving from a state of near deflation towards higher inflation, as price setters make up for lost time due to the pandemic.

The panic over inflation risks should stop. The world is simply moving from a state of near deflation towards higher inflation, as price setters make up for lost time due to the pandemic.

15 Jun 2021 - 7:48AM