David Brown

David Brown

David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics. Over a career spanning four decades in London, David held roles as chief economist in a number of international investment banks.

Latest from David Brown

Macroscope | If Britain’s grand post-Brexit budget doesn’t add up, markets may be in for a rough ride

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a massive public spending binge to revitalise the economy. The cornerstone is a rail project that is running over budget and might involve the Chinese. Markets are wondering who will pick up the tab.

18 Feb 2020 - 9:23PM

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a massive public spending binge to revitalise the economy. The cornerstone is a rail project that is running over budget and might involve the Chinese. Markets are wondering who will pick up the tab.

If Britain’s grand post-Brexit budget doesn’t add up, markets may be in for a rough ride
Macroscope | As the global economy falters, Europe must not leave all the heavy economic lifting to the US and China

Germany must ditch its fiscal conservatism and put its budget surplus to work. An ultra-loose monetary policy in conjunction with over-tight fiscal policy is hampering growth and distorting the euro zone yield curve.

11 Feb 2020 - 12:56AM

Germany must ditch its fiscal conservatism and put its budget surplus to work. An ultra-loose monetary policy in conjunction with over-tight fiscal policy is hampering growth and distorting the euro zone yield curve.

As the global economy falters, Europe must not leave all the heavy economic lifting to the US and China
Macroscope | With coronavirus outbreak hitting China’s economy, the US must pull its weight to ensure global growth

More policy accommodation in the form of easier credit and fiscal stimulus from Beijing looks likely. The Federal Reserve must go the extra mile and consider another interest rate cut.

14 Feb 2020 - 6:24PM

More policy accommodation in the form of easier credit and fiscal stimulus from Beijing looks likely. The Federal Reserve must go the extra mile and consider another interest rate cut.

With coronavirus outbreak hitting China’s economy, the US must pull its weight to ensure global growth
Macroscope | Why the coronavirus threat, new trade barriers and massive global debt will not dampen stock markets

Central banks seem committed to loose monetary policy, which means the wall of money they created since the 2008 financial crisis needs to find a home. Negative yields in mainstream bond markets will push investors towards equities.

28 Jan 2020 - 1:51AM

Central banks seem committed to loose monetary policy, which means the wall of money they created since the 2008 financial crisis needs to find a home. Negative yields in mainstream bond markets will push investors towards equities.

Why the coronavirus threat, new trade barriers and massive global debt will not dampen stock markets
Macroscope | Why China’s currency reserve managers must pay attention to the euro in 2020

The euro could be a major winner in the currency markets this year, as world trade and the German economy get back on track. If the euro rallies against the dollar, there are important implications for China’s currency reserve management.

21 Jan 2020 - 3:41AM

The euro could be a major winner in the currency markets this year, as world trade and the German economy get back on track. If the euro rallies against the dollar, there are important implications for China’s currency reserve management.

Why China’s currency reserve managers must pay attention to the euro in 2020
Macroscope | Inflation could make a comeback in 2020. It should be welcomed if it means higher growth

The years of deflation or low inflation may end as a growth recovery gathers momentum and puts less pressure on prices. Central banks, which are largely sticking to loose monetary policy, should go with the flow.

14 Jan 2020 - 4:04AM

The years of deflation or low inflation may end as a growth recovery gathers momentum and puts less pressure on prices. Central banks, which are largely sticking to loose monetary policy, should go with the flow.

Inflation could make a comeback in 2020. It should be welcomed if it means higher growth
Macroscope | As trade tension recedes, Trump’s re-election bid will set the battleground for US dollar bulls and bears

The positive impact of a trade deal with China will outweigh the downside risks of a potential conflict in the Gulf, leaving domestic politics to play a key role in whether market confidence in the US dollar will hold.

7 Jan 2020 - 3:43AM

The positive impact of a trade deal with China will outweigh the downside risks of a potential conflict in the Gulf, leaving domestic politics to play a key role in whether market confidence in the US dollar will hold.

As trade tension recedes, Trump’s re-election bid will set the battleground for US dollar bulls and bears
Macroscope | With global confidence returning, a stock market boom is on the cards for 2020

As the trade war recedes, investors will feel better about market prospects. With bond markets offering rock-bottom returns, the pressure to switch into stocks will be compelling, giving the equity market a bigger boost.

31 Dec 2019 - 1:14AM

As the trade war recedes, investors will feel better about market prospects. With bond markets offering rock-bottom returns, the pressure to switch into stocks will be compelling, giving the equity market a bigger boost.

With global confidence returning, a stock market boom is on the cards for 2020
Macroscope | While trade and Brexit risks persist, there will be plenty to keep stock markets happy in 2020

Despite the potential spoilers, 2019 has been a good year, with the MSCI world index gaining some 30 per cent. The world is in transition and even the impeachment process against Donald Trump could turn to investors’ advantage in 2020.

24 Dec 2019 - 12:31AM

Despite the potential spoilers, 2019 has been a good year, with the MSCI world index gaining some 30 per cent. The world is in transition and even the impeachment process against Donald Trump could turn to investors’ advantage in 2020.

While trade and Brexit risks persist, there will be plenty to keep stock markets happy in 2020
Macroscope | China’s economic planners should be talking up growth, not resigning themselves to a slowdown

While China’s planners will no doubt institute more structural reforms and improve supply-side investments, they should boost expectations by aiming for a 6 to 7 per cent growth target.

17 Dec 2019 - 9:00AM

While China’s planners will no doubt institute more structural reforms and improve supply-side investments, they should boost expectations by aiming for a 6 to 7 per cent growth target.

China’s economic planners should be talking up growth, not resigning themselves to a slowdown
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s trade wars could scupper the euro-zone’s fragile economic recovery. That’s the last thing both sides need

Supportive ECB policies and green-shoot growth in several European economies, as Germany successfully avoided a recession, are good news for the market. But the US threat of tariffs on French goods could portend an escalation of tensions.

9 Dec 2019 - 11:46PM

Supportive ECB policies and green-shoot growth in several European economies, as Germany successfully avoided a recession, are good news for the market. But the US threat of tariffs on French goods could portend an escalation of tensions.

Donald Trump’s trade wars could scupper the euro-zone’s fragile economic recovery. That’s the last thing both sides need
Macroscope | Markets think the worst may soon be over for the world economy. Governments must prove them right

Market crash fears are out of date. Recent business confidence numbers from the US, China and Germany show the global economy is not down and out. The world’s governments must seize the momentum and find new ways to fund sustainable recovery.

3 Dec 2019 - 4:19AM

Market crash fears are out of date. Recent business confidence numbers from the US, China and Germany show the global economy is not down and out. The world’s governments must seize the momentum and find new ways to fund sustainable recovery.

Markets think the worst may soon be over for the world economy. Governments must prove them right
Macroscope | As recession fears recede in the US, the golden days might be over for government bond markets

With US economic data suddenly looking brighter and positive noises being made in the trade war, risk reversals could be round the corner. After years as sanctuaries for investors, government bonds may finally lose their mojo in 2020.

26 Nov 2019 - 4:34AM

With US economic data suddenly looking brighter and positive noises being made in the trade war, risk reversals could be round the corner. After years as sanctuaries for investors, government bonds may finally lose their mojo in 2020.

As recession fears recede in the US, the golden days might be over for government bond markets
Macroscope | When Tesla sets up shop in Germany, it’s a sign of things going wrong with Europe

Europe’s common market is supposed be a level playing field. But as Germany remains a magnet for foreign capital – most recently Tesla’s – the gulf between Europe’s rich and poor will only widen, fuelling the EU’s existential crisis.

19 Nov 2019 - 4:19AM

Europe’s common market is supposed be a level playing field. But as Germany remains a magnet for foreign capital – most recently Tesla’s – the gulf between Europe’s rich and poor will only widen, fuelling the EU’s existential crisis.

When Tesla sets up shop in Germany, it’s a sign of things going wrong with Europe
Macroscope | Global stock markets are in line for a bumper 2020 after the doom and gloom of 2019

Markets, having priced in the worst outcomes of the trade war, a Trump impeachment and Brexit, now seek good news. As central banks ease policy, political risks recede and with a trade deal in sight, 2020 should be glorious.

11 Nov 2019 - 10:15PM

Markets, having priced in the worst outcomes of the trade war, a Trump impeachment and Brexit, now seek good news. As central banks ease policy, political risks recede and with a trade deal in sight, 2020 should be glorious.

Global stock markets are in line for a bumper 2020 after the doom and gloom of 2019
Macroscope | What the US, China and the rest of world need now is even more Fed stimulus

The US central bank is cutting interest rates and buying short-term Treasury bills with the aim of supporting the economy. This should give China more room to ease policy and stabilise the yuan, taking some heat out of the trade war.

5 Nov 2019 - 3:41AM

The US central bank is cutting interest rates and buying short-term Treasury bills with the aim of supporting the economy. This should give China more room to ease policy and stabilise the yuan, taking some heat out of the trade war.

What the US, China and the rest of world need now is even more Fed stimulus
Macroscope | The trade war’s end would bring huge dividends to China, the US and the global economy at large

China’s economy could return to 7 per cent annually, the US could near 4 and the global economy could go back to 5. But this would depend not just on the trade war ending, but appropriate stimulus and reform measures afterwards.

29 Oct 2019 - 1:18AM

China’s economy could return to 7 per cent annually, the US could near 4 and the global economy could go back to 5. But this would depend not just on the trade war ending, but appropriate stimulus and reform measures afterwards.

The trade war’s end would bring huge dividends to China, the US and the global economy at large
Macroscope | The US, Britain and China are leading the retreat away from austerity. It’s time other economies, especially in Europe, followed

Deficit spending among major economies steadily declined in the years after the global financial crisis ended. With economies around the world slowing, major players – Germany in particular – should abandon austerity now.

22 Oct 2019 - 11:00AM

Deficit spending among major economies steadily declined in the years after the global financial crisis ended. With economies around the world slowing, major players – Germany in particular – should abandon austerity now.

The US, Britain and China are leading the retreat away from austerity. It’s time other economies, especially in Europe, followed
Macroscope | After trade war progress, the Fed should cut interest rates, boost its QE holdings and lower the dollar’s value to boost the US economy

The Fed should not only cut interest rates, but up its quantitative easing holdings, thus driving down the dollar. This, and a trade war ceasefire, would not only boost the US economy but the global economy and trade as a whole.

15 Oct 2019 - 2:12AM

The Fed should not only cut interest rates, but up its quantitative easing holdings, thus driving down the dollar. This, and a trade war ceasefire, would not only boost the US economy but the global economy and trade as a whole.

After trade war progress, the Fed should cut interest rates, boost its QE holdings and lower the dollar’s value to boost the US economy
Macroscope | Under threat of impeachment, Trump should aim for a win on the economy – by ending the US-China trade war

There’s no better way for Trump to fight off the threat to his presidency and increase the chances of his re-election by focusing on improving the US economy and global outlook. The damaging trade war must end.

8 Oct 2019 - 4:44AM

There’s no better way for Trump to fight off the threat to his presidency and increase the chances of his re-election by focusing on improving the US economy and global outlook. The damaging trade war must end.

Under threat of impeachment, Trump should aim for a win on the economy – by ending the US-China trade war
Macroscope | Europe must ignore naysayers, including the US, and loosen the fiscal and monetary purse strings to stave off recession

Europe’s emphasis on austerity and fiscal stabilisation since the global financial crisis is not working. With a recession and no-deal Brexit looming, it’s time for the ECB and European governments to loosen the strings.

1 Oct 2019 - 3:22AM

Europe’s emphasis on austerity and fiscal stabilisation since the global financial crisis is not working. With a recession and no-deal Brexit looming, it’s time for the ECB and European governments to loosen the strings.

Europe must ignore naysayers, including the US, and loosen the fiscal and monetary purse strings to stave off recession
Macroscope | The ball is in China’s court. It must take the initiative, end the trade war and save the global economy

The US-China trade war, Brexit and tensions in the Gulf could add up to a perfect storm for the global economy. The world can’t count on Trump. Now, more than ever, Beijing must take the lead.

24 Sep 2019 - 2:28AM

The US-China trade war, Brexit and tensions in the Gulf could add up to a perfect storm for the global economy. The world can’t count on Trump. Now, more than ever, Beijing must take the lead.

The ball is in China’s court. It must take the initiative, end the trade war and save the global economy
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s trade war can’t solve America’s problems, but it is creating plenty for the global economy

Since Donald Trump launched his trade war US trade and budget deficits have only grown, and now the US economy is slowing. Better to tame runaway US consumerism and start policy coordination with other major powers to stave off a recession.

17 Sep 2019 - 3:33AM

Since Donald Trump launched his trade war US trade and budget deficits have only grown, and now the US economy is slowing. Better to tame runaway US consumerism and start policy coordination with other major powers to stave off a recession.

Donald Trump’s trade war can’t solve America’s problems, but it is creating plenty for the global economy
Macroscope | Global economic slowdown is China’s opportunity to take the initiative in settling the trade war and easing tensions

China should set a new range for its currency and use the rest of its reflationary tools to reach its 2019 growth target. It should also lead the way in seeking reconciliation at a time when the trade war is hurting everyone.

10 Sep 2019 - 12:35PM

China should set a new range for its currency and use the rest of its reflationary tools to reach its 2019 growth target. It should also lead the way in seeking reconciliation at a time when the trade war is hurting everyone.

Global economic slowdown is China’s opportunity to take the initiative in settling the trade war and easing tensions
Macroscope | Why China must be prepared for Brexit and the possibility of another European crisis

Germany’s economy is flashing warning signs and with a no-deal Brexit imminent, contagion might spread across Europe and the world. The Chinese economy, already under stress from the US trade war, is vulnerable.

2 Sep 2019 - 10:32PM

Germany’s economy is flashing warning signs and with a no-deal Brexit imminent, contagion might spread across Europe and the world. The Chinese economy, already under stress from the US trade war, is vulnerable.

Why China must be prepared for Brexit and the possibility of another European crisis
Macroscope | Falling stocks and a slumping global economy mean a welcome return to economic stimulus, as austerity and deregulation exit

Governments everywhere it seems are turning to stimulus to stave off the very real risk of global recession. This return to Keynesian-centred solutions must avoid boosting inequality again, though; governments should agree on a global ‘New Deal’.

26 Aug 2019 - 10:27PM

Governments everywhere it seems are turning to stimulus to stave off the very real risk of global recession. This return to Keynesian-centred solutions must avoid boosting inequality again, though; governments should agree on a global ‘New Deal’.

Falling stocks and a slumping global economy mean a welcome return to economic stimulus, as austerity and deregulation exit
Macroscope | Three ways China can use policy freedoms to shore up its economy and lead the world out of the mess

China’s policy options amid a slowing economy are to strike a face-saving trade deal with the US, devalue its currency and offer cheap loans at home. Beijing must use them all.

20 Aug 2019 - 1:18AM

China’s policy options amid a slowing economy are to strike a face-saving trade deal with the US, devalue its currency and offer cheap loans at home. Beijing must use them all.

Three ways China can use policy freedoms to shore up its economy and lead the world out of the mess
Macroscope | A trade war truce? The US and Chinese economies need one, but they also need domestic reforms to stave off global catastrophe

The US’ overreliance on expansionary fiscal policy when the country is already deeply in debt is a recipe for disaster. Beijing, for its part, needs reforms to spur domestic demand, not currency depreciation that could further provoke the US.

13 Aug 2019 - 3:52AM

The US’ overreliance on expansionary fiscal policy when the country is already deeply in debt is a recipe for disaster. Beijing, for its part, needs reforms to spur domestic demand, not currency depreciation that could further provoke the US.

A trade war truce? The US and Chinese economies need one, but they also need domestic reforms to stave off global catastrophe
Macroscope | Europe must fix its economy with stimulus to help the people, and member countries, that need it most

Neither austerity nor supply-side economics that put the haves before the have-nots will pull Europe out of its doldrums. To rescue the economy, Brussels must help its poorer members and spend on key infrastructure and social services.

5 Aug 2019 - 10:33PM

Neither austerity nor supply-side economics that put the haves before the have-nots will pull Europe out of its doldrums. To rescue the economy, Brussels must help its poorer members and spend on key infrastructure and social services.

Europe must fix its economy with stimulus to help the people, and member countries, that need it most
Macroscope | A post-Brexit ‘Boris boom’? Stimulus, the pound beating expectations and a possible EU deal may make it happen

Britain is an important enough trading partner for the EU to work out a late deal, much as it once did with Greece. Furthermore, Britain looks like it’s taking the gloves off and getting ready to spend big.

30 Jul 2019 - 3:05AM

Britain is an important enough trading partner for the EU to work out a late deal, much as it once did with Greece. Furthermore, Britain looks like it’s taking the gloves off and getting ready to spend big.

A post-Brexit ‘Boris boom’? Stimulus, the pound beating expectations and a possible EU deal may make it happen