David Brown

David Brown

David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics. Over a career spanning four decades in London, David held roles as chief economist in a number of international investment banks.

Latest from David Brown

Macroscope | Signs of recovery are welcome, but the global economy is still on course for a crash

The upturn in trade and job numbers and positive market sentiment are fuelled by generous policy stimulus. While the illusion of plenty lasts, a sustainable economic recovery built on business and consumer confidence must take root.

10 Aug 2020 - 10:28PM

The upturn in trade and job numbers and positive market sentiment are fuelled by generous policy stimulus. While the illusion of plenty lasts, a sustainable economic recovery built on business and consumer confidence must take root.

Signs of recovery are welcome, but the global economy is still on course for a crash
Macroscope | Why US dollar will survive the test of coronavirus pandemic

The recent US dollar sell-off raises questions about confidence in the world’s dominant currency, but the fact remains it has no peers as a reserve asset. The woes of the US economy notwithstanding, the dollar will bounce back, as it has always done.

3 Aug 2020 - 10:51PM

The recent US dollar sell-off raises questions about confidence in the world’s dominant currency, but the fact remains it has no peers as a reserve asset. The woes of the US economy notwithstanding, the dollar will bounce back, as it has always done.

Why US dollar will survive the test of coronavirus pandemic
Macroscope | Is Europe’s stimulus spending out of control? One way forward is to patch up trade relations with China

The amount of money earmarked for European recovery is huge, with scant regard for the consequences. Both the EU and China need more bilateral trade to stand any hope of a stronger recovery this year, but concessions and compromise will be needed.

28 Jul 2020 - 6:15AM

The amount of money earmarked for European recovery is huge, with scant regard for the consequences. Both the EU and China need more bilateral trade to stand any hope of a stronger recovery this year, but concessions and compromise will be needed.

Is Europe’s stimulus spending out of control? One way forward is to patch up trade relations with China
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: Unemployment crisis calls for new policy focus

In a world of rising unemployment, governments must focus on job creation initiatives and look out for workers’ rights when firms attempt to put profits above people.

21 Jul 2020 - 2:02AM

In a world of rising unemployment, governments must focus on job creation initiatives and look out for workers’ rights when firms attempt to put profits above people.

Coronavirus recovery: Unemployment crisis calls for new policy focus
Macroscope | Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, is the US president the world economy needs now

Trump’s business-friendly tax bonanza has come at a cost and the US’ deteriorating economic fundamentals are in need of repair. Democrat presidents are usually written off as tax-and-spenders but recent experience suggests otherwise.

14 Jul 2020 - 3:45AM

Trump’s business-friendly tax bonanza has come at a cost and the US’ deteriorating economic fundamentals are in need of repair. Democrat presidents are usually written off as tax-and-spenders but recent experience suggests otherwise.

Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, is the US president the world economy needs now
Macroscope | All hope for a Brexit deal is not lost, but for how long would it buoy Britain?

While the prospect of Britain crashing out of the European Union without a deal looks likely, Brussels is famous for last-minute compromises. However, UK financial markets are vulnerable without the country charting a strategy for long-term industrial revival.

6 Jul 2020 - 10:30PM

While the prospect of Britain crashing out of the European Union without a deal looks likely, Brussels is famous for last-minute compromises. However, UK financial markets are vulnerable without the country charting a strategy for long-term industrial revival.

All hope for a Brexit deal is not lost, but for how long would it buoy Britain?
Macroscope | Why the world needs stock market bulls who are upbeat about economic recovery

Now is not the time to consider fiscal austerity, debt deflation or balance sheet restructuring. Sustained fiscal and monetary super stimulus will be needed for years.

29 Jun 2020 - 10:27PM

Now is not the time to consider fiscal austerity, debt deflation or balance sheet restructuring. Sustained fiscal and monetary super stimulus will be needed for years.

Why the world needs stock market bulls who are upbeat about economic recovery
Macroscope | Why China cannot pin its hopes on global demand to boost economic recovery

The US-China trade war, Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ policies and the marginalisation of global institutions have hurt the world’s ability to deal with the economic and health crisis. China needs to forget about export-led recovery and go for growth at home.

23 Jun 2020 - 6:34AM

The US-China trade war, Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ policies and the marginalisation of global institutions have hurt the world’s ability to deal with the economic and health crisis. China needs to forget about export-led recovery and go for growth at home.

Why China cannot pin its hopes on global demand to boost economic recovery
Macroscope | Brexit plus the coronavirus pandemic could prove too much for Britain

Higher trade tariffs and disruptions to supply chains due to a no-deal Brexit might push British manufacturers to relocate. The risk of an entrenched depression is real, and neither Europe nor China would come to the UK’s rescue.

16 Jun 2020 - 4:55AM

Higher trade tariffs and disruptions to supply chains due to a no-deal Brexit might push British manufacturers to relocate. The risk of an entrenched depression is real, and neither Europe nor China would come to the UK’s rescue.

Brexit plus the coronavirus pandemic could prove too much for Britain
Macroscope | Coronavirus crisis recovery is on the way but firms and governments must do their part to protect workers

Governments must not turn a blind eye to firms engaging in radical overhauls such as increased lay-offs and reduced benefits in the pursuit of greater productivity and profits. Ignoring underlying issues such as inequality and exploitation of workers will only make it more difficult for the global economy to return to full health.

9 Jun 2020 - 5:52AM

Governments must not turn a blind eye to firms engaging in radical overhauls such as increased lay-offs and reduced benefits in the pursuit of greater productivity and profits. Ignoring underlying issues such as inequality and exploitation of workers will only make it more difficult for the global economy to return to full health.

Coronavirus crisis recovery is on the way but firms and governments must do their part to protect workers
Macroscope | The global downturn is bottoming out and optimists are right on the money

Germany and China are the workshops of the world, and the best places to see early shoots of recovery. The latest German business sentiment data and Chinese factory numbers suggest that better times might be around the corner.

2 Jun 2020 - 12:50AM

Germany and China are the workshops of the world, and the best places to see early shoots of recovery. The latest German business sentiment data and Chinese factory numbers suggest that better times might be around the corner.

The global downturn is bottoming out and optimists are right on the money
Macroscope | Europe won’t recover from the coronavirus or other ailments as long as Germany stands in the way

The Franco-German €500 billion recovery plan is a mere drop in the ocean. Over the years, Germany has opposed quantitative easing and other perceived risks to financial stability. But, to save the euro, it must support a level playing field for the EU.

26 May 2020 - 1:23AM

The Franco-German €500 billion recovery plan is a mere drop in the ocean. Over the years, Germany has opposed quantitative easing and other perceived risks to financial stability. But, to save the euro, it must support a level playing field for the EU.

Europe won’t recover from the coronavirus or other ailments as long as Germany stands in the way
Macroscope | A weak yuan will help strengthen China’s coronavirus-battered economy, but only for now

Beijing has the strong US dollar to thank for making its exporters happy by keeping the renminbi soft. But economic and political risks in the US may yet end the dollar’s rally, which would leave Beijing in a dilemma about whether to intervene.

19 May 2020 - 5:14AM

Beijing has the strong US dollar to thank for making its exporters happy by keeping the renminbi soft. But economic and political risks in the US may yet end the dollar’s rally, which would leave Beijing in a dilemma about whether to intervene.

A weak yuan will help strengthen China’s coronavirus-battered economy, but only for now
Macroscope | The US dollar’s draw as a safe haven is likely to end when the coronavirus crisis does

For as long as the Covid-19 pandemic rages on, dollar dominion is not in doubt. But if US economic data continues to deteriorate and the Fed comes under pressure to adopt a negative rate, investors will look for better returns elsewhere at the first opportunity.

11 May 2020 - 10:24PM

For as long as the Covid-19 pandemic rages on, dollar dominion is not in doubt. But if US economic data continues to deteriorate and the Fed comes under pressure to adopt a negative rate, investors will look for better returns elsewhere at the first opportunity.

The US dollar’s draw as a safe haven is likely to end when the coronavirus crisis does
Macroscope | The world economy could recover from coronavirus sooner than expected. Don’t stop believing

The strong performance of supermarkets and surging demand at online retailers are proof that consumer demand is far from down and out. In manufacturing powerhouses like China and Germany, the first green shoots of recovery will emerge.

5 May 2020 - 8:25PM

The strong performance of supermarkets and surging demand at online retailers are proof that consumer demand is far from down and out. In manufacturing powerhouses like China and Germany, the first green shoots of recovery will emerge.

The world economy could recover from coronavirus sooner than expected. Don’t stop believing
Macroscope | As coronavirus hits the world economy, China and the EU can’t afford not to get along

This was supposed to be the year Europe and China sorted out their differences over trade. There is a lot at stake as each is a top trade partner of the other, and euro weakness means China might need to worry about its holdings of the currency.

27 Apr 2020 - 10:20PM

This was supposed to be the year Europe and China sorted out their differences over trade. There is a lot at stake as each is a top trade partner of the other, and euro weakness means China might need to worry about its holdings of the currency.

As coronavirus hits the world economy, China and the EU can’t afford not to get along
Macroscope | Coronavirus boost to the US dollar shows China must do more to win global trust in the renminbi

To change investor psychology towards the renminbi, Beijing must not only improve monetary policy transparency and open up financial markets, but also support international bodies like the IMF and World Bank.

21 Apr 2020 - 5:54AM

To change investor psychology towards the renminbi, Beijing must not only improve monetary policy transparency and open up financial markets, but also support international bodies like the IMF and World Bank.

Coronavirus boost to the US dollar shows China must do more to win global trust in the renminbi
Macroscope | Economic recovery is certain even after the worst hit – the coronavirus crisis will be no different

The optimism of the US stock rally last week may look misplaced, but the nature of economic cycles should give confidence that the world will bounce back – even if the recovery is more likely to be gradual and U-shaped, than sharp and V-shaped.

14 Apr 2020 - 1:23AM

The optimism of the US stock rally last week may look misplaced, but the nature of economic cycles should give confidence that the world will bounce back – even if the recovery is more likely to be gradual and U-shaped, than sharp and V-shaped.

Economic recovery is certain even after the worst hit – the coronavirus crisis will be no different
Macroscope | Coronavirus brings opportunity to curb capitalism’s excesses. First, make the wealthy pay for the pandemic

The people best able to cope with the devastation of Covid-19 should be the ones to shoulder most of the financial burden of ill health, lost production and massive job cuts.

6 Apr 2020 - 10:33PM

The people best able to cope with the devastation of Covid-19 should be the ones to shoulder most of the financial burden of ill health, lost production and massive job cuts.

Coronavirus brings opportunity to curb capitalism’s excesses. First, make the wealthy pay for the pandemic
Macroscope | Donald Trump can win the 2020 presidential elections if he gets the world economy back on track

The American people need to have faith that their president has their interests at heart and that the economy will spring back. Trump must carry out policy for the long haul, and this means ending the unnecessary trade war with China.

31 Mar 2020 - 12:22AM

The American people need to have faith that their president has their interests at heart and that the economy will spring back. Trump must carry out policy for the long haul, and this means ending the unnecessary trade war with China.

Donald Trump can win the 2020 presidential elections if he gets the world economy back on track
Macroscope | Coronavirus pandemic should prompt a global ban on short selling if hedge funds cannot self-regulate

The coronavirus crisis raises the question of whether hedge fund activities should be reined in or more closely monitored. Making money out of market disorder may be permissible, but profiting from an abject global tragedy should not be.

23 Mar 2020 - 10:35PM

The coronavirus crisis raises the question of whether hedge fund activities should be reined in or more closely monitored. Making money out of market disorder may be permissible, but profiting from an abject global tragedy should not be.

Coronavirus pandemic should prompt a global ban on short selling if hedge funds cannot self-regulate
Macroscope | As the coronavirus takes its toll, here’s what the European Central Bank must do to save the euro zone economy

The ECB missed an opportunity to walk in step with the US and Britain and cut interest rates last week. In addition to pumping liquidity into the market, the ECB must shore up high-risk bond markets and ban speculative short-selling.

16 Mar 2020 - 11:17PM

The ECB missed an opportunity to walk in step with the US and Britain and cut interest rates last week. In addition to pumping liquidity into the market, the ECB must shore up high-risk bond markets and ban speculative short-selling.

As the coronavirus takes its toll, here’s what the European Central Bank must do to save the euro zone economy
Macroscope | The coronavirus crisis should trigger a turn to caring capitalism through a united global policy response

Rather than focusing on interest rate cuts, major economies must coordinate policy action, along the lines of the Marshall Plan, to propel growth in the less-developed world. Given the size of military spending, resources for such a strategy are available.

10 Mar 2020 - 5:39AM

Rather than focusing on interest rate cuts, major economies must coordinate policy action, along the lines of the Marshall Plan, to propel growth in the less-developed world. Given the size of military spending, resources for such a strategy are available.

The coronavirus crisis should trigger a turn to caring capitalism through a united global policy response
Macroscope | Coronavirus threat should push global superpowers to ditch austerity and ramp up fiscal stimulus

Central bank monetary policy easing will not go far enough. In Europe, where interest rates are already negative, only massive public spending will prevent Germany, France and Italy from heading into recession.

2 Mar 2020 - 10:25PM

Central bank monetary policy easing will not go far enough. In Europe, where interest rates are already negative, only massive public spending will prevent Germany, France and Italy from heading into recession.

Coronavirus threat should push global superpowers to ditch austerity and ramp up fiscal stimulus
Macroscope | Trump’s policies are setting up the US economy for a fall, but would a Democratic president be any better?

The Fed’s loose monetary setting is propping up a stock market rally and low job numbers cannot hide the middling GDP growth rate. The US needs a policy correction, and Trump, who has overseen ballooning budget and trade deficits, is not the right person for the job.

25 Feb 2020 - 4:09AM

The Fed’s loose monetary setting is propping up a stock market rally and low job numbers cannot hide the middling GDP growth rate. The US needs a policy correction, and Trump, who has overseen ballooning budget and trade deficits, is not the right person for the job.

Trump’s policies are setting up the US economy for a fall, but would a Democratic president be any better?
Macroscope | If Britain’s grand post-Brexit budget doesn’t add up, markets may be in for a rough ride

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a massive public spending binge to revitalise the economy. The cornerstone is a rail project that is running over budget and might involve the Chinese. Markets are wondering who will pick up the tab.

18 Feb 2020 - 9:23PM

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a massive public spending binge to revitalise the economy. The cornerstone is a rail project that is running over budget and might involve the Chinese. Markets are wondering who will pick up the tab.

If Britain’s grand post-Brexit budget doesn’t add up, markets may be in for a rough ride
Macroscope | As the global economy falters, Europe must not leave all the heavy economic lifting to the US and China

Germany must ditch its fiscal conservatism and put its budget surplus to work. An ultra-loose monetary policy in conjunction with over-tight fiscal policy is hampering growth and distorting the euro zone yield curve.

11 Feb 2020 - 12:56AM

Germany must ditch its fiscal conservatism and put its budget surplus to work. An ultra-loose monetary policy in conjunction with over-tight fiscal policy is hampering growth and distorting the euro zone yield curve.

As the global economy falters, Europe must not leave all the heavy economic lifting to the US and China
Macroscope | With coronavirus outbreak hitting China’s economy, the US must pull its weight to ensure global growth

More policy accommodation in the form of easier credit and fiscal stimulus from Beijing looks likely. The Federal Reserve must go the extra mile and consider another interest rate cut.

14 Feb 2020 - 6:24PM

More policy accommodation in the form of easier credit and fiscal stimulus from Beijing looks likely. The Federal Reserve must go the extra mile and consider another interest rate cut.

With coronavirus outbreak hitting China’s economy, the US must pull its weight to ensure global growth
Macroscope | Why the coronavirus threat, new trade barriers and massive global debt will not dampen stock markets

Central banks seem committed to loose monetary policy, which means the wall of money they created since the 2008 financial crisis needs to find a home. Negative yields in mainstream bond markets will push investors towards equities.

28 Jan 2020 - 1:51AM

Central banks seem committed to loose monetary policy, which means the wall of money they created since the 2008 financial crisis needs to find a home. Negative yields in mainstream bond markets will push investors towards equities.

Why the coronavirus threat, new trade barriers and massive global debt will not dampen stock markets
Macroscope | Why China’s currency reserve managers must pay attention to the euro in 2020

The euro could be a major winner in the currency markets this year, as world trade and the German economy get back on track. If the euro rallies against the dollar, there are important implications for China’s currency reserve management.

21 Jan 2020 - 3:41AM

The euro could be a major winner in the currency markets this year, as world trade and the German economy get back on track. If the euro rallies against the dollar, there are important implications for China’s currency reserve management.

Why China’s currency reserve managers must pay attention to the euro in 2020