David Brown

David Brown

David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics. Over a career spanning four decades in London, David held roles as chief economist in a number of international investment banks.

Latest from David Brown

Macroscope | With the EU at risk of a double-dip recession, investors’ faith in the euro is being severely tested

Despite a strong rebound in the third quarter, the bloc recorded a 0.4 per cent contraction in the fourth, raising fears of a double-dip recession.

22 Feb 2021 - 8:42PM

Despite a strong rebound in the third quarter, the bloc recorded a 0.4 per cent contraction in the fourth, raising fears of a double-dip recession.

With the EU at risk of a double-dip recession, investors’ faith in the euro is being severely tested
Macroscope | Why waning business confidence raises red flags over global economic recovery

Supply lines have been badly interrupted and the world is running short of key goods and materials, leaving the global economy with much catching up to do. Shipping containers are in short supply, with demand and prices surging worldwide.

16 Feb 2021 - 4:40AM

Supply lines have been badly interrupted and the world is running short of key goods and materials, leaving the global economy with much catching up to do. Shipping containers are in short supply, with demand and prices surging worldwide.

Why waning business confidence raises red flags over global economic recovery
Macroscope | GameStop frenzy a symptom of an overstimulated market that needs a tax on financial transactions

While markets are riding high on monetary stimulus, the Fed’s objective is to spur real job growth, not trading fads. A tax on financial transactions would not only curb exuberance, but help foot the government’s stimulus bill.

9 Feb 2021 - 6:03AM

While markets are riding high on monetary stimulus, the Fed’s objective is to spur real job growth, not trading fads. A tax on financial transactions would not only curb exuberance, but help foot the government’s stimulus bill.

GameStop frenzy a symptom of an overstimulated market that needs a tax on financial transactions
Macroscope | Why China will have a tough time decoupling from the US dollar

When weighed against the risks, US Treasuries still offer the best returns for China’s massive reserve stockpile. Diversifying into the euro and yen, for example, would mean giving up yield.

2 Feb 2021 - 5:07AM

When weighed against the risks, US Treasuries still offer the best returns for China’s massive reserve stockpile. Diversifying into the euro and yen, for example, would mean giving up yield.

Why China will have a tough time decoupling from the US dollar
Macroscope | As Biden gets into gear, could a Federal Reserve interest rate rise be on the cards?

The Fed’s dilemma is whether the new US president’s stimulus plan risks overheating the US, given that the economy is being swamped with liquidity from the central bank’s bond buy-back programme.

26 Jan 2021 - 12:32PM

The Fed’s dilemma is whether the new US president’s stimulus plan risks overheating the US, given that the economy is being swamped with liquidity from the central bank’s bond buy-back programme.

As Biden gets into gear, could a Federal Reserve interest rate rise be on the cards?
Macroscope | China’s recovering economy needs to cool down to manage overheating risks

It might be time for Beijing to consider reining back the excess slack and for markets to be prepared for the prospect of higher interest rates ahead. Easy money can’t last forever and Beijing needs to think about normalising policy.

18 Jan 2021 - 4:30PM

It might be time for Beijing to consider reining back the excess slack and for markets to be prepared for the prospect of higher interest rates ahead. Easy money can’t last forever and Beijing needs to think about normalising policy.

China’s recovering economy needs to cool down to manage overheating risks
Macroscope | Why the Fed may be forced to hit the brakes on US dollar slide

China and Europe’s patience with renminbi and euro appreciation, respectively, may not last, while the Biden team could be less opposed to a stronger dollar. The Fed’s response will be key, as pressure builds to keep the economy from overheating.

22 Dec 2020 - 5:57AM

China and Europe’s patience with renminbi and euro appreciation, respectively, may not last, while the Biden team could be less opposed to a stronger dollar. The Fed’s response will be key, as pressure builds to keep the economy from overheating.

Why the Fed may be forced to hit the brakes on US dollar slide
Macroscope | US-China relations: make peace, not trade war, to ensure mutually beneficial growth

China’s export performance is accelerating in spite of headwinds, putting it at odds with its biggest trading partners, especially the US. If the US and China are to defuse trade tensions, compromise and concessions are needed on both sides.

15 Dec 2020 - 6:17AM

China’s export performance is accelerating in spite of headwinds, putting it at odds with its biggest trading partners, especially the US. If the US and China are to defuse trade tensions, compromise and concessions are needed on both sides.

US-China relations: make peace, not trade war, to ensure mutually beneficial growth
Macroscope | Asian manufacturing data and Covid-19 vaccine hopes suggest better days ahead for the global economy

Asian manufacturers are at the forefront of the upturn, judging by business confidence data showing surges in purchasing managers’ indices. Given the way manufacturing indices are pointing, global GDP growth in 2021 could be heading for its strongest level for a decade.

7 Dec 2020 - 10:21PM

Asian manufacturers are at the forefront of the upturn, judging by business confidence data showing surges in purchasing managers’ indices. Given the way manufacturing indices are pointing, global GDP growth in 2021 could be heading for its strongest level for a decade.

Asian manufacturing data and Covid-19 vaccine hopes suggest better days ahead for the global economy
Macroscope | What does Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary mean for the US economy?

Given that Yellen has been chair of the Fed, US fiscal and monetary policy are likely to be much more in sync. While Yellen is not an advocate of austerity policies, if the market appetite for risk skyrockets or the dollar weakens considerably, higher interest rates might come sooner than expected.

30 Nov 2020 - 10:21PM

Given that Yellen has been chair of the Fed, US fiscal and monetary policy are likely to be much more in sync. While Yellen is not an advocate of austerity policies, if the market appetite for risk skyrockets or the dollar weakens considerably, higher interest rates might come sooner than expected.

What does Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary mean for the US economy?
Macroscope | Why China must tread carefully on dumping US debt

If Beijing is anxious about US sovereign credit risks, there are other investment options like euros and gold, but they come with major consequences on prices and exchange rates.

23 Nov 2020 - 11:59PM

If Beijing is anxious about US sovereign credit risks, there are other investment options like euros and gold, but they come with major consequences on prices and exchange rates.

Why China must tread carefully on dumping US debt
Macroscope | Battered Europe needs a full fiscal union to drive its economic recovery

Signs are already pointing to an uneven economic recovery across the continent. Stronger fiscal stimulus is needed to revitalise domestic demand, but Europe must also open its doors to faster export-led growth, especially with major partners like China.

16 Nov 2020 - 10:36PM

Signs are already pointing to an uneven economic recovery across the continent. Stronger fiscal stimulus is needed to revitalise domestic demand, but Europe must also open its doors to faster export-led growth, especially with major partners like China.

Battered Europe needs a full fiscal union to drive its economic recovery
Macroscope | In China’s economic recovery, tech – not the consumer – will be king

While some expect that China’s economy could eventually end up looking like the US’, where consumer demand drives growth, it is not a direction Beijing wants to take. For now, China prefers to maintain high savings and strong investment in R&D.

9 Nov 2020 - 10:18PM

While some expect that China’s economy could eventually end up looking like the US’, where consumer demand drives growth, it is not a direction Beijing wants to take. For now, China prefers to maintain high savings and strong investment in R&D.

In China’s economic recovery, tech – not the consumer – will be king
Macroscope | A V-shaped recovery in the global economy should not be feared

The burst of activity as economies in China, the US and the EU emerge from the coronavirus-induced lethargy raises hopes of a spectacular return to growth. As long as fiscal support holds up, the dreaded double-dip recession can be fended off.

3 Nov 2020 - 10:13AM

The burst of activity as economies in China, the US and the EU emerge from the coronavirus-induced lethargy raises hopes of a spectacular return to growth. As long as fiscal support holds up, the dreaded double-dip recession can be fended off.

A V-shaped recovery in the global economy should not be feared
Macroscope | What lessons does China’s fast economic recovery from Covid-19 hold for the US and Europe?

China has rallied resources with carefully placed investments in strategic areas of the economy. Conversely, the US and Europe have relied too much on blanket stimulus to turn things around, with less effect.

26 Oct 2020 - 10:18PM

China has rallied resources with carefully placed investments in strategic areas of the economy. Conversely, the US and Europe have relied too much on blanket stimulus to turn things around, with less effect.

What lessons does China’s fast economic recovery from Covid-19 hold for the US and Europe?
Macroscope | Brexit, US recovery could spell doom for euro’s rally against US dollar

With the threat of a no-deal Brexit looming and the European Central Bank moving towards another monetary policy ease, the euro is living on borrowed time. A US interest rate rise is likely while euro zone rates are in negative territory, so shorting the euro and going long on dollars could gain a strong following.

19 Oct 2020 - 11:03PM

With the threat of a no-deal Brexit looming and the European Central Bank moving towards another monetary policy ease, the euro is living on borrowed time. A US interest rate rise is likely while euro zone rates are in negative territory, so shorting the euro and going long on dollars could gain a strong following.

Brexit, US recovery could spell doom for euro’s rally against US dollar
Macroscope | How China’s consumers can help ease trade tensions with US

At a time when the US economic outlook may be faltering, China has an opportunity to take up the slack and help lead the way in the global recovery. Lifting global growth might mean bigger deficits and a smaller trade surplus for China, but major benefits would follow if it eases tensions with the US.

12 Oct 2020 - 10:49PM

At a time when the US economic outlook may be faltering, China has an opportunity to take up the slack and help lead the way in the global recovery. Lifting global growth might mean bigger deficits and a smaller trade surplus for China, but major benefits would follow if it eases tensions with the US.

How China’s consumers can help ease trade tensions with US
Macroscope | Trump’s health and US election leave currency markets seeking stability

November’s US presidential election could easily be a lottery like 2016, making it too risky for investors to make rock-solid bets at this stage. The worry is how the rest of the world responds to any new phase of US dollar instability.

6 Oct 2020 - 1:53AM

November’s US presidential election could easily be a lottery like 2016, making it too risky for investors to make rock-solid bets at this stage. The worry is how the rest of the world responds to any new phase of US dollar instability.

Trump’s health and US election leave currency markets seeking stability
Macroscope | Why China’s economy can easily meet 6 per cent growth in the next five years

To insulate the economy from international downside risks, Beijing must boost domestic demand by easier credit conditions, extra liquidity injections and further fiscal stimulus.

28 Sep 2020 - 11:25PM

To insulate the economy from international downside risks, Beijing must boost domestic demand by easier credit conditions, extra liquidity injections and further fiscal stimulus.

Why China’s economy can easily meet 6 per cent growth in the next five years
Macroscope | Why pandemic-shaken investors should be optimistic about global economic prospects

A raft of new monetary and fiscal stimulus is working its way through, a global business upturn is already under way and risk appetite is tentatively gaining ground.

21 Sep 2020 - 10:23PM

A raft of new monetary and fiscal stimulus is working its way through, a global business upturn is already under way and risk appetite is tentatively gaining ground.

Why pandemic-shaken investors should be optimistic about global economic prospects
Macroscope | Global economy has little hope of fighting off coronavirus without cooperation

The appetite for multilateral problem-solving is much weaker now than in 2008 when the global financial crisis hit, with US-China friction setting the tone for global relations. A change in US leadership could turn the tide.

15 Sep 2020 - 5:16AM

The appetite for multilateral problem-solving is much weaker now than in 2008 when the global financial crisis hit, with US-China friction setting the tone for global relations. A change in US leadership could turn the tide.

Global economy has little hope of fighting off coronavirus without cooperation
Macroscope | Why US dollar bears should watch out for November’s presidential election

The dollar is being undermined by loose US monetary policy and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the presidential election. The latter could mark a turning point for the currency.

7 Sep 2020 - 10:37PM

The dollar is being undermined by loose US monetary policy and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the presidential election. The latter could mark a turning point for the currency.

Why US dollar bears should watch out for November’s presidential election
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: stock markets are bullish for a reason, but are they being misled?

Investors can only rely on the available data for their decisions amid uncertainty about the pandemic’s track. With both the sentiment surveys and hard economic indicators showing a positive trend, equity markets cannot be blamed for being optimistic.

31 Aug 2020 - 10:18PM

Investors can only rely on the available data for their decisions amid uncertainty about the pandemic’s track. With both the sentiment surveys and hard economic indicators showing a positive trend, equity markets cannot be blamed for being optimistic.

Coronavirus recovery: stock markets are bullish for a reason, but are they being misled?
Macroscope | With European economies mired in recession, is the euro living on borrowed time?

The rebound in the euro is simply the flip side of the US dollar being undermined by uncertainty about the presidential election. The monetary muddle in Europe won’t help the currency after the dust settles in America.

24 Aug 2020 - 10:26PM

The rebound in the euro is simply the flip side of the US dollar being undermined by uncertainty about the presidential election. The monetary muddle in Europe won’t help the currency after the dust settles in America.

With European economies mired in recession, is the euro living on borrowed time?
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: Population crisis adds to shadow over global future

Birth rates around the world are declining at an alarming rate, with major implications for future growth, prosperity and social stability. Future monetary and fiscal incentives must be attuned to rebuilding the right conditions and incentives for sustainable global population growth ahead.

17 Aug 2020 - 11:01PM

Birth rates around the world are declining at an alarming rate, with major implications for future growth, prosperity and social stability. Future monetary and fiscal incentives must be attuned to rebuilding the right conditions and incentives for sustainable global population growth ahead.

Coronavirus recovery: Population crisis adds to shadow over global future
Macroscope | Signs of recovery are welcome, but the global economy is still on course for a crash

The upturn in trade and job numbers and positive market sentiment are fuelled by generous policy stimulus. While the illusion of plenty lasts, a sustainable economic recovery built on business and consumer confidence must take root.

10 Aug 2020 - 10:28PM

The upturn in trade and job numbers and positive market sentiment are fuelled by generous policy stimulus. While the illusion of plenty lasts, a sustainable economic recovery built on business and consumer confidence must take root.

Signs of recovery are welcome, but the global economy is still on course for a crash
Macroscope | Why US dollar will survive the test of coronavirus pandemic

The recent US dollar sell-off raises questions about confidence in the world’s dominant currency, but the fact remains it has no peers as a reserve asset. The woes of the US economy notwithstanding, the dollar will bounce back, as it has always done.

3 Aug 2020 - 10:51PM

The recent US dollar sell-off raises questions about confidence in the world’s dominant currency, but the fact remains it has no peers as a reserve asset. The woes of the US economy notwithstanding, the dollar will bounce back, as it has always done.

Why US dollar will survive the test of coronavirus pandemic
Macroscope | Is Europe’s stimulus spending out of control? One way forward is to patch up trade relations with China

The amount of money earmarked for European recovery is huge, with scant regard for the consequences. Both the EU and China need more bilateral trade to stand any hope of a stronger recovery this year, but concessions and compromise will be needed.

28 Jul 2020 - 6:15AM

The amount of money earmarked for European recovery is huge, with scant regard for the consequences. Both the EU and China need more bilateral trade to stand any hope of a stronger recovery this year, but concessions and compromise will be needed.

Is Europe’s stimulus spending out of control? One way forward is to patch up trade relations with China
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: Unemployment crisis calls for new policy focus

In a world of rising unemployment, governments must focus on job creation initiatives and look out for workers’ rights when firms attempt to put profits above people.

13 Oct 2020 - 9:13PM

In a world of rising unemployment, governments must focus on job creation initiatives and look out for workers’ rights when firms attempt to put profits above people.

Coronavirus recovery: Unemployment crisis calls for new policy focus
Macroscope | Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, is the US president the world economy needs now

Trump’s business-friendly tax bonanza has come at a cost and the US’ deteriorating economic fundamentals are in need of repair. Democrat presidents are usually written off as tax-and-spenders but recent experience suggests otherwise.

17 Oct 2020 - 7:12AM

Trump’s business-friendly tax bonanza has come at a cost and the US’ deteriorating economic fundamentals are in need of repair. Democrat presidents are usually written off as tax-and-spenders but recent experience suggests otherwise.

Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, is the US president the world economy needs now