David Brown

David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics. Over a career spanning four decades in London, David held roles as chief economist in a number of international investment banks.
David Brown
David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics. Over a career spanning four decades in London, David held roles as chief economist in a number of international investment banks.

Latest from David Brown

Macroscope | China shouldn’t count on currency stability to last. Rather, it should take steps to make the yuan a safe haven

While Beijing may breathe easier now than in 2018, global conditions remain uncertain, meaning China should hasten reforms to strengthen the yuan’s position as a reserve currency, to challenge the dominance of the US dollar.

15 Apr 2019 - 10:24PM

While Beijing may breathe easier now than in 2018, global conditions remain uncertain, meaning China should hasten reforms to strengthen the yuan’s position as a reserve currency, to challenge the dominance of the US dollar.

China shouldn’t count on currency stability to last. Rather, it should take steps to make the yuan a safe haven
Macroscope | Trade war, Brexit and slowdowns in China and Germany are likely to curb the stock market euphoria

While a trade deal between the US and China will offer a reprieve, US President Donald Trump’s attempts to protect the American automobile industry will have global ramifications, including on a Europe reeling from Brexit uncertainty.

8 Apr 2019 - 10:26PM

While a trade deal between the US and China will offer a reprieve, US President Donald Trump’s attempts to protect the American automobile industry will have global ramifications, including on a Europe reeling from Brexit uncertainty.

Trade war, Brexit and slowdowns in China and Germany are likely to curb the stock market euphoria
Macroscope | China’s thrifty consumers are key to its economic growth – can Beijing convince them to spend more?

As China’s economy slows, in addition to loosening monetary policy and investing in technology to counter the impact of its falling birth rate, the country must strengthen welfare provisions, such as health care, to bolster consumer confidence.

1 Apr 2019 - 10:18PM

As China’s economy slows, in addition to loosening monetary policy and investing in technology to counter the impact of its falling birth rate, the country must strengthen welfare provisions, such as health care, to bolster consumer confidence.

China’s thrifty consumers are key to its economic growth – can Beijing convince them to spend more?
Macroscope | The Federal Reserve has halted policy normalisation. Now, other central banks should follow suit

The Fed’s decision to stop interest rate rises and the shrinking of its balance sheet this year should be a cue for central banks in Europe, Japan and particularly China to take steps to bolster economic activity.

25 Mar 2019 - 10:22PM

The Fed’s decision to stop interest rate rises and the shrinking of its balance sheet this year should be a cue for central banks in Europe, Japan and particularly China to take steps to bolster economic activity.

The Federal Reserve has halted policy normalisation. Now, other central banks should follow suit
Opinion | The US and China must end their trade war so the world can work together to restore economic order

From out-of-control US deficits to Europe’s sluggish growth and China’s over-reliance on exports, the world has problems it will take cooperation to address, and the trade war is a big distraction.

18 Mar 2019 - 10:27PM

From out-of-control US deficits to Europe’s sluggish growth and China’s over-reliance on exports, the world has problems it will take cooperation to address, and the trade war is a big distraction.

The US and China must end their trade war so the world can work together to restore economic order
Macroscope | China, Europe, Japan and the US should coordinate policy to reboot global growth, and inflation

The fear of hyperinflation after the global financial crisis proved to be overblown. Instead, today, there’s the opposite problem: sluggish inflation means advanced economies risk the ‘Japan syndrome’.

11 Mar 2019 - 10:26PM

The fear of hyperinflation after the global financial crisis proved to be overblown. Instead, today, there’s the opposite problem: sluggish inflation means advanced economies risk the ‘Japan syndrome’.

China, Europe, Japan and the US should coordinate policy to reboot global growth, and inflation
Macroscope | Good news for investors: Donald Trump needs a China trade deal as badly as they do

Confusion reigns in global markets, as world growth and even US manufacturing slow. But the US president’s eagerness to achieve a breakthrough with China should not be underestimated, even as dark clouds surround his presidency at home.

4 Mar 2019 - 10:25PM

Confusion reigns in global markets, as world growth and even US manufacturing slow. But the US president’s eagerness to achieve a breakthrough with China should not be underestimated, even as dark clouds surround his presidency at home.

Good news for investors: Donald Trump needs a China trade deal as badly as they do
Macroscope | Trade war deal or no deal, the damage to the world economy has been done. Central banks must act soon

The trade war has taken its toll on export-led nations such as Germany, Japan and China. With indications that even the US economy is losing steam, it’s time for central banks to pick up the slack.

25 Feb 2019 - 10:27PM

The trade war has taken its toll on export-led nations such as Germany, Japan and China. With indications that even the US economy is losing steam, it’s time for central banks to pick up the slack.

Trade war deal or no deal, the damage to the world economy has been done. Central banks must act soon
Macroscope | It’s time for China to be honest about the poor shape of its economy

The comforting numbers, rose-tinted projections and all-round positive spin that Beijing has been feeding the public have to stop. The Chinese economy is in trouble and policymakers must take radical action to stop the rot.

7 Mar 2019 - 12:36PM

The comforting numbers, rose-tinted projections and all-round positive spin that Beijing has been feeding the public have to stop. The Chinese economy is in trouble and policymakers must take radical action to stop the rot.

It’s time for China to be honest about the poor shape of its economy
Macroscope | China and Europe’s economic insecurity suggest the glory days for the convergence trade are over

Economic worries suggest Beijing will come under pressure to commit to fiscal intervention, which would be likely to widen the spread between Chinese and US bonds.

11 Feb 2019 - 10:24PM

Economic worries suggest Beijing will come under pressure to commit to fiscal intervention, which would be likely to widen the spread between Chinese and US bonds.

China and Europe’s economic insecurity suggest the glory days for the convergence trade are over
Macroscope | China’s currency is heading for a volatile year – and that may be a good thing

Beijing has a choice: blow its foreign exchange reserves on stabilising the renminbi or let it reach equilibrium on its own. The latter would be the better choice in the long term.

6 Feb 2019 - 10:24PM

Beijing has a choice: blow its foreign exchange reserves on stabilising the renminbi or let it reach equilibrium on its own. The latter would be the better choice in the long term.

China’s currency is heading for a volatile year – and that may be a good thing
Macroscope | Besides US-China trade troubles, Europe’s economic and political struggles should have us on edge, too

Germany’s slide towards recession and Italy again threatening a revolt could mean big trouble for China’s economy, even if the trade war is resolved.

28 Jan 2019 - 10:32PM

Germany’s slide towards recession and Italy again threatening a revolt could mean big trouble for China’s economy, even if the trade war is resolved.

Besides US-China trade troubles, Europe’s economic and political struggles should have us on edge, too
Macroscope | How China’s yuan can gain ground against the US dollar and the euro as a global reserve currency of choice

The yuan has a gap to fill as the dollar’s share as a reserve currency slips and concerns about the euro’s future persist. However, market liberalisation and a hands-off approach to the currency in China are crucial.

21 Jan 2019 - 10:34PM

The yuan has a gap to fill as the dollar’s share as a reserve currency slips and concerns about the euro’s future persist. However, market liberalisation and a hands-off approach to the currency in China are crucial.

How China’s yuan can gain ground against the US dollar and the euro as a global reserve currency of choice
Macroscope | How China can avoid 2 per cent growth nightmare: cut interest rates, expand money supply and ramp up deficit spending

China must start treating the unthinkable – economic growth slumping to just 2 per cent – as entirely possible and ramp up the stimulus measures.

14 Jan 2019 - 10:23PM

China must start treating the unthinkable – economic growth slumping to just 2 per cent – as entirely possible and ramp up the stimulus measures.

How China can avoid 2 per cent growth nightmare: cut interest rates, expand money supply and ramp up deficit spending
Macroscope | Apple’s sales warning is a symptom of what’s ailing the US economy

Amid a shift in global economic power from west to east, the US economy is buoyed by policies that compound its budget and trade deficits. Without a radical overhaul, a downturn in the economic cycle will have a devastating impact.

8 Jan 2019 - 1:29AM

Amid a shift in global economic power from west to east, the US economy is buoyed by policies that compound its budget and trade deficits. Without a radical overhaul, a downturn in the economic cycle will have a devastating impact.

Apple’s sales warning is a symptom of what’s ailing the US economy
Macroscope | Trexit – the one thing Donald Trump can do to save the US and global markets in 2019

There are hopeful signs for markets, despite the current confusion. The Federal Reserve can always be counted on to stabilise the world economy, the Democrats are leading the House and Trump might just do the right thing and quit.

1 Jan 2019 - 4:32AM

There are hopeful signs for markets, despite the current confusion. The Federal Reserve can always be counted on to stabilise the world economy, the Democrats are leading the House and Trump might just do the right thing and quit.

Trexit – the one thing Donald Trump can do to save the US and global markets in 2019
Macroscope | Not just China: why the global economy needs Beijing’s stimulus measures to boost growth

Concerns are growing around the world about slowing growth, and only Beijing – not Britain, Japan, the EU or even the US – are in a position to revive economic hope.

26 Dec 2018 - 10:16PM

Concerns are growing around the world about slowing growth, and only Beijing – not Britain, Japan, the EU or even the US – are in a position to revive economic hope.

Not just China: why the global economy needs Beijing’s stimulus measures to boost growth
Macroscope | A recession is looming, easy money is ending and the yuan is falling – get set for 2019, the year of living dangerously

With indicators turning negative and austerity the norm, investors may be well-advised to liquidate and remember that cash is king.

17 Dec 2018 - 10:35PM

With indicators turning negative and austerity the norm, investors may be well-advised to liquidate and remember that cash is king.

A recession is looming, easy money is ending and the yuan is falling – get set for 2019, the year of living dangerously
Macroscope | With US data looking ominous, it’s time for a ‘China first’ strategy to brave the economic headwinds

On top of China’s slowdown, there are signs of looming trouble for the US, so Beijing needs to turn on the stimulus spigot now.

10 Dec 2018 - 10:32PM

On top of China’s slowdown, there are signs of looming trouble for the US, so Beijing needs to turn on the stimulus spigot now.

With US data looking ominous, it’s time for a ‘China first’ strategy to brave the economic headwinds
Macroscope | Why China should not fear the bogeyman of inflation

There’s no reason for Beijing to hold back from doing what’s necessary to boost its economy when the inflation outlook is tame and monetary growth modest, amid a soft global economy.

3 Dec 2018 - 10:27PM

There’s no reason for Beijing to hold back from doing what’s necessary to boost its economy when the inflation outlook is tame and monetary growth modest, amid a soft global economy.

Why China should not fear the bogeyman of inflation
Macroscope | The US trade war is chilling China’s consumer confidence and Beijing must step in to spur growth

Slowing growth means China has two choices: resolve tensions with the US or prime the pump. Since there’s no reason to believe Donald Trump will come to the rescue, government stimulus is the only answer.

26 Nov 2018 - 10:40PM

Slowing growth means China has two choices: resolve tensions with the US or prime the pump. Since there’s no reason to believe Donald Trump will come to the rescue, government stimulus is the only answer.

The US trade war is chilling China’s consumer confidence and Beijing must step in to spur growth
Macroscope | A trade war cannot give China and America what they need. A wake-up call is overdue

The two economies are so intertwined that when one falters, so, eventually, will the other. There is a way to address both their needs without coming to blows, and Beijing and Washington must put their minds to finding it.

19 Nov 2018 - 10:29PM

The two economies are so intertwined that when one falters, so, eventually, will the other. There is a way to address both their needs without coming to blows, and Beijing and Washington must put their minds to finding it.

A trade war cannot give China and America what they need. A wake-up call is overdue
Macroscope | China needs to spend big, like it’s 2008 again, before the economic slowdown sets in

The Chinese economy needs a stronger dosage of government intervention, or growth may slow to under 5 per cent next year. Beijing must expand the money supply, and ease credit conditions for households and companies.

12 Nov 2018 - 10:41PM

The Chinese economy needs a stronger dosage of government intervention, or growth may slow to under 5 per cent next year. Beijing must expand the money supply, and ease credit conditions for households and companies.

China needs to spend big, like it’s 2008 again, before the economic slowdown sets in
Macroscope | Why yuan devaluation is not in China’s best interests and it’s time for Beijing to stop the free fall

An adverse midterm election for Trump could see the US president push for a weaker dollar, resulting in a currency war that would rattle markets, while a weaker yuan will intensify the Chinese economy’s focus on exports, in contrast to Beijing’s intention of concentrating on domestic consumption.

9 Nov 2018 - 6:22AM

An adverse midterm election for Trump could see the US president push for a weaker dollar, resulting in a currency war that would rattle markets, while a weaker yuan will intensify the Chinese economy’s focus on exports, in contrast to Beijing’s intention of concentrating on domestic consumption.

Why yuan devaluation is not in China’s best interests and it’s time for Beijing to stop the free fall
Macroscope | Despite the trade war and stock market gloom, a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is not on the cards yet

David Brown says while markets appear to be blowing off steam, global growth has held steady, the US economy is doing well and China is still recording a 6.5 per cent expansion.

30 Oct 2018 - 7:11AM

David Brown says while markets appear to be blowing off steam, global growth has held steady, the US economy is doing well and China is still recording a 6.5 per cent expansion.

Despite the trade war and stock market gloom, a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is not on the cards yet
Opinion | Whether it’s after the midterm elections or later, the US will eventually realise it can’t beat China in the trade war

China has many economic weapons, while America’s growing budget deficits and trade gaps are getting worse, not better

23 Oct 2018 - 2:26PM

China has many economic weapons, while America’s growing budget deficits and trade gaps are getting worse, not better

Whether it’s after the midterm elections or later, the US will eventually realise it can’t beat China in the trade war
Macroscope | Trade war with the US shows China needs a new market-driven model for monetary policy

While a more decisive interest rate cut would be beneficial now, what China’s central bank really needs is more transparency in monetary policy and less government dictation.

15 Oct 2018 - 10:32PM

While a more decisive interest rate cut would be beneficial now, what China’s central bank really needs is more transparency in monetary policy and less government dictation.

Trade war with the US shows China needs a new market-driven model for monetary policy
Macroscope | Why the US dollar still reigns supreme and how the renminbi can knock it off its throne

There are signs that the US dollar’s dominance as a reserve currency asset has been waning but, for the renminbi to fill the gap, China must run a truly independent foreign exchange and monetary policy.

8 Oct 2018 - 10:38PM

There are signs that the US dollar’s dominance as a reserve currency asset has been waning but, for the renminbi to fill the gap, China must run a truly independent foreign exchange and monetary policy.

Why the US dollar still reigns supreme and how the renminbi can knock it off its throne
Macroscope | Trade war, Federal Reserve rate hikes should push China to double down on measures to boost growth

In the face of global headwinds, China’s policymakers could consider cutting interest rates, slashing taxes and increasing spending to keep the economy on course.

1 Oct 2018 - 10:38PM

In the face of global headwinds, China’s policymakers could consider cutting interest rates, slashing taxes and increasing spending to keep the economy on course.

Trade war, Federal Reserve rate hikes should push China to double down on measures to boost growth
Trump has made his point with the US-China trade war, now the real work must begin

A rethink of the US’ trading relationship with China is long overdue, but instead of a protracted conflict, both sides should take steps to agree on a mutually beneficial dynamic.

29 Sep 2018 - 2:36PM

A rethink of the US’ trading relationship with China is long overdue, but instead of a protracted conflict, both sides should take steps to agree on a mutually beneficial dynamic.

Trump has made his point with the US-China trade war, now the real work must begin