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To prevent war with Iran, China could endorse a US-led Gulf military escort scheme
- The odds of China joining a multilateral escort plan led by the US are close to zero, but Beijing recognises its use
- In particular, China sees it preventing small skirmishes that could escalate, and so may provide tacit endorsement
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China does not want a conflict between the United States and Iran, and continues to call for restraint as the two parties are locked in a dispute over the nature of the Iranian nuclear programme. However, despite their good relations with Tehran, the Chinese could consider the creation of a US-led military escort force for shipping in the Persian Gulf as the lesser of two evils.
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Safe navigation across the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Gulf of Oman to the Persian Gulf, and where about a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily, has become a key concern for the international community.
According to Britain’s Ministry of Defence, the Royal Navy’s Type 23 frigate HMS Montrose repelled an attempt by Iranian boats to impede the passage of a British oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz on July 10 – an accusation the Iranian government denies.
The assaults in May and June on some oil tankers sailing in the region, which Washington and its Gulf friends blame on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the recent downing of a US drone by an Iranian missile, had already raised the probability of a confrontation.
Iran could be using its speedboats and projectiles as a warning of what could come if the US and its allies were to try to attack its assets.
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