Latest from Emanuele Scimia
With his China visit, French President Macron won trade deals and climate cooperation and shored up European Union interests. But his silence on the South China Sea does not mean France will stop trying to curb China’s influence or end arms sales to its rivals.
With his China visit, French President Macron won trade deals and climate cooperation and shored up European Union interests. But his silence on the South China Sea does not mean France will stop trying to curb China’s influence or end arms sales to its rivals.
China’s economic clout in the Pacific is clearly growing, as its recent poaching of Taiwan allies has demonstrated. The US has expanded military activity to counter this, but it’s not certain it can sustain the necessary partnerships.
China’s economic clout in the Pacific is clearly growing, as its recent poaching of Taiwan allies has demonstrated. The US has expanded military activity to counter this, but it’s not certain it can sustain the necessary partnerships.
Europe has concerns over Hong Kong, Huawei and barriers to China’s market that Beijing will have to assuage. But while an anti-Trump front is unlikely, cooperation in other areas, including climate change and infrastructure investment, is possible
Europe has concerns over Hong Kong, Huawei and barriers to China’s market that Beijing will have to assuage. But while an anti-Trump front is unlikely, cooperation in other areas, including climate change and infrastructure investment, is possible
Tensions over the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities threaten belt and road projects in the Gulf and China’s oil lifeline – and reveal Beijing’s lack of soft power and strategic influence.
Tensions over the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities threaten belt and road projects in the Gulf and China’s oil lifeline – and reveal Beijing’s lack of soft power and strategic influence.
EU-China ties are already strained by South China Sea tensions, Xinjiang detentions and 5G security concerns. The EU is unlikely to spend much political capital pressing Beijing on Hong Kong, with a recession on the horizon.
EU-China ties are already strained by South China Sea tensions, Xinjiang detentions and 5G security concerns. The EU is unlikely to spend much political capital pressing Beijing on Hong Kong, with a recession on the horizon.
The collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty could see US strengthening land-based missile defences in the Asia-Pacific, forcing China into an arms race. But many observers question the need for such defences.
The collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty could see US strengthening land-based missile defences in the Asia-Pacific, forcing China into an arms race. But many observers question the need for such defences.
Phnom Penh and Beijing both deny reports of a new base agreement, but undeniably closer cooperation has Washington on edge. Ultimately, the growing rivalry between the two and the importance of the Indo-Pacific region means further militarisation appears inevitable.
Phnom Penh and Beijing both deny reports of a new base agreement, but undeniably closer cooperation has Washington on edge. Ultimately, the growing rivalry between the two and the importance of the Indo-Pacific region means further militarisation appears inevitable.
The odds of China joining a multilateral escort plan led by the US are close to zero, but Beijing recognises its use. In particular, China sees it preventing small skirmishes that could escalate, and so may provide tacit endorsement.
The odds of China joining a multilateral escort plan led by the US are close to zero, but Beijing recognises its use. In particular, China sees it preventing small skirmishes that could escalate, and so may provide tacit endorsement.
The hard reality for Trump is that Chinese businesses are modernising European port infrastructure and creating jobs as part of belt and road integration. Many in Europe see US fears about the Chinese navy gaining greater strategic access as overblown.
The hard reality for Trump is that Chinese businesses are modernising European port infrastructure and creating jobs as part of belt and road integration. Many in Europe see US fears about the Chinese navy gaining greater strategic access as overblown.
The US Navy is in danger of spreading itself too thin and needs support from allies and like-minded countries in the South China Sea.
The US Navy is in danger of spreading itself too thin and needs support from allies and like-minded countries in the South China Sea.
The US has been clear that it will reconsider its partnerships with countries that use crucial Chinese technology. However, ultimately, the appeal of 5G may lure many countries away from the US.
The US has been clear that it will reconsider its partnerships with countries that use crucial Chinese technology. However, ultimately, the appeal of 5G may lure many countries away from the US.
While it won’t confront China as Trump has done, the grouping wants to address its concerns over some Chinese policies through a united front. Italy’s lone endorsement of the belt and road recently shows the challenge it faces.
While it won’t confront China as Trump has done, the grouping wants to address its concerns over some Chinese policies through a united front. Italy’s lone endorsement of the belt and road recently shows the challenge it faces.
The continuing Chinese charm offensive is far from winning over EU sceptics who have long complained of Beijing’s unfair trade and investment practices, and in fact have taken action to counter it.
The continuing Chinese charm offensive is far from winning over EU sceptics who have long complained of Beijing’s unfair trade and investment practices, and in fact have taken action to counter it.
Washington sees a connection between Beijing’s overseas infrastructure projects and military strategy objectives, and is trying to weaken China’s grip on some countries in the Indo-Pacific.
Washington sees a connection between Beijing’s overseas infrastructure projects and military strategy objectives, and is trying to weaken China’s grip on some countries in the Indo-Pacific.
Emanuele Scimia says despite progress on a code of conduct in the South China Sea between China and Asean, the US will not cede influence in the region easily.
Emanuele Scimia says despite progress on a code of conduct in the South China Sea between China and Asean, the US will not cede influence in the region easily.
Quite apart from the forbidding price tag, the problem of technology access and the sheer imbalance in firepower, considering China’s naval assets, are challenges Taipei is unlikely to overcome.
Quite apart from the forbidding price tag, the problem of technology access and the sheer imbalance in firepower, considering China’s naval assets, are challenges Taipei is unlikely to overcome.
While France and Britain are jointly stepping up their military presence in regional waters, it’s not a given they will fully back America’s muscular position against China in the South China Sea.
While France and Britain are jointly stepping up their military presence in regional waters, it’s not a given they will fully back America’s muscular position against China in the South China Sea.
China has a big stake in ensuring that the Iran nuclear deal stays intact as its investment and influence in the Middle East grows.
China has a big stake in ensuring that the Iran nuclear deal stays intact as its investment and influence in the Middle East grows.
The UK’s recent expansion to the East, including establishing a naval base in Bahrain and naval stopovers with Beijing’s regional rivals, can’t hide the fact that the UK cannot project power in China’s backyard by itself.
The UK’s recent expansion to the East, including establishing a naval base in Bahrain and naval stopovers with Beijing’s regional rivals, can’t hide the fact that the UK cannot project power in China’s backyard by itself.