Macroscope | The trade war lull is a good time to assess the damage, and corporate earnings give investors that chance
- Companies typically set themselves up to beat expectations in corporate earnings reports. So while they generally maintain profit margins, it is telling that fewer corporations are exceeding their targets
Taking a look at the world and capital markets through the widest macroscopic lens is a sensible way of determining what matters when it comes to investing. However, now and again the micro-narrative takes over, and the corporate earnings season is one of those times.
At the time of writing, the US earnings season has only just started and the consensus view of what will be delivered is pretty low. As was the case with the first quarter, the slower global growth, lower oil prices and strong US dollar will all likely add downward pressure to earnings. Then there is the fading effect from the US tax reform package that boosted earnings a year ago.
To a certain extent, the earnings season is a bit of a game. Corporate executives play down the earnings outlook in the lead-up to the release, just enough to soften analyst expectations, which makes it easier to “beat” expectations and to create a bigger earnings surprise. However, heading into the current earnings season, analysts have been revising down their expectations by more than usual, given the added global uncertainty stemming from trade.
So if the market has placed such a low bar for earnings, overcoming that hurdle should be relatively easy, right? The difference will be the divergence in earnings among sectors. The strength of earnings a year ago, thanks to tax reform, was always going to make this quarter tough, but the materials and industrials sectors may find it tougher, given the slowing in capital spending investment.