Kerry Craig

Kerry Craig

Kerry Craig is a global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

Latest from Kerry Craig

Macroscope | Economies revving up recovery from coronavirus should expect many detours

Governments and central banks’ commitment to nurse the global economy back to health is reassuring, but the virus won’t be so quickly tamed. Sectors which can operate with social distancing policies are likely to do better than industries heavily reliant on the free flow of people.

3 Jul 2020 - 10:22PM

Governments and central banks’ commitment to nurse the global economy back to health is reassuring, but the virus won’t be so quickly tamed. Sectors which can operate with social distancing policies are likely to do better than industries heavily reliant on the free flow of people.

Economies revving up recovery from coronavirus should expect many detours
Macroscope | Are European stocks the next big opportunity as economic recovery takes hold?

European equity indices have not bounced back in the same way as their US counterparts, indicating there is room for gains, especially as European officials have taken strong measures to boost recovery.

12 Jun 2020 - 10:28PM

European equity indices have not bounced back in the same way as their US counterparts, indicating there is room for gains, especially as European officials have taken strong measures to boost recovery.

Are European stocks the next big opportunity as economic recovery takes hold?
Macroscope | US stocks have bucked the coronavirus downturn, but will corporate earnings halt their buoyancy?

The recent rebound in equities has been prompted by aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus from central banks and governments, and a belief that the worst of the pandemic has passed. A deterioration in corporate earnings could stymie this trend.

8 May 2020 - 10:23PM

The recent rebound in equities has been prompted by aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus from central banks and governments, and a belief that the worst of the pandemic has passed. A deterioration in corporate earnings could stymie this trend.

US stocks have bucked the coronavirus downturn, but will corporate earnings halt their buoyancy?
Macroscope | Will Saudi-Russia deal to end the oil price war be enough as coronavirus-battered global economy grinds to a halt?

When the oil price war began, no one had accounted for the economic damage that would be caused by Covid-19, or how demand for oil would evaporate. The reality is that oil under US$30 per barrel is not sustainable for either country.

10 Apr 2020 - 10:24PM

When the oil price war began, no one had accounted for the economic damage that would be caused by Covid-19, or how demand for oil would evaporate. The reality is that oil under US$30 per barrel is not sustainable for either country.

Will Saudi-Russia deal to end the oil price war be enough as coronavirus-battered global economy grinds to a halt?
Macroscope | Falling bond yields may be less a sign of a bubble than a reflection of the long-term trend of a mature market

The low interest rates and bond-buying schemes of central banks are pushing up prices, creating what some fear to be the mother of all bubbles in the bond markets. But with no sign of investor speculation, gradually falling bond yields may actually be due to a structural market change.

29 Feb 2020 - 4:23AM

The low interest rates and bond-buying schemes of central banks are pushing up prices, creating what some fear to be the mother of all bubbles in the bond markets. But with no sign of investor speculation, gradually falling bond yields may actually be due to a structural market change.

Falling bond yields may be less a sign of a bubble than a reflection of the long-term trend of a mature market
Macroscope | With the Federal Reserve smiling on them, equity markets should have a good year

The US and China have reached a partial trade deal, amid forecasts for higher global economic growth in 2020. In addition, central banks like the Fed are not only keeping policy loose but also showing greater tolerance towards inflation.

25 Jan 2020 - 1:44AM

The US and China have reached a partial trade deal, amid forecasts for higher global economic growth in 2020. In addition, central banks like the Fed are not only keeping policy loose but also showing greater tolerance towards inflation.

With the Federal Reserve smiling on them, equity markets should have a good year
Macroscope | US-China trade tension relief has helped nurture green shoots of global growth again, but can they be sustained?

Easing of the trade war tensions and some clarity on Brexit have lifted markets after a year of uncertainty. Details on both are still to be hammered out, however, so investors should be cautious.

21 Dec 2019 - 2:10AM

Easing of the trade war tensions and some clarity on Brexit have lifted markets after a year of uncertainty. Details on both are still to be hammered out, however, so investors should be cautious.

US-China trade tension relief has helped nurture green shoots of global growth again, but can they be sustained?
Macroscope | Even as an expected US-China trade deal boosts appetite for riskier assets, Treasuries remain attractive

Market optimism stems from anticipation of a US-China trade war deal and signs that sentiment in the manufacturing sector is slowly improving. However, as investors turn to riskier assets, they must also build protection against downside risk into their portfolios.

16 Nov 2019 - 3:38AM

Market optimism stems from anticipation of a US-China trade war deal and signs that sentiment in the manufacturing sector is slowly improving. However, as investors turn to riskier assets, they must also build protection against downside risk into their portfolios.

Even as an expected US-China trade deal boosts appetite for riskier assets, Treasuries remain attractive
Macroscope | Markets lifted by US-China trade and Brexit breakthroughs but deep economic risks remain

Receding political risks look likely to keep market spirits up for the rest of 2019 but be warned: global growth continues to slow and corporate investment remains weak while the props for growth – reforms, tax cuts, fiscal spending – look shaky.

26 Oct 2019 - 1:13AM

Receding political risks look likely to keep market spirits up for the rest of 2019 but be warned: global growth continues to slow and corporate investment remains weak while the props for growth – reforms, tax cuts, fiscal spending – look shaky.

Markets lifted by US-China trade and Brexit breakthroughs but deep economic risks remain
Macroscope | Sudden shift in the normally calm US cash markets doesn’t signal a new credit crunch

The recent ‘pipe blockage’ in the US financial system caused fears of a much bigger problem with the Fed’s balance sheet. But, sometimes supply and demand don’t match and, on this occasion, the mismatch was simply greater than expected and was fixed.

27 Sep 2019 - 10:45PM

The recent ‘pipe blockage’ in the US financial system caused fears of a much bigger problem with the Fed’s balance sheet. But, sometimes supply and demand don’t match and, on this occasion, the mismatch was simply greater than expected and was fixed.

Sudden shift in the normally calm US cash markets doesn’t signal a new credit crunch
Macroscope | The bond market is flashing a recession warning, but that’s no cause for alarm yet

Historically, a yield curve inversion precedes a recession. However, following an era of easy money, an inversion might simply signal that markets are expecting loose monetary policy again.

16 Aug 2019 - 10:24PM

Historically, a yield curve inversion precedes a recession. However, following an era of easy money, an inversion might simply signal that markets are expecting loose monetary policy again.

The bond market is flashing a recession warning, but that’s no cause for alarm yet
Macroscope | The trade war lull is a good time to assess the damage, and corporate earnings give investors that chance

Companies typically set themselves up to beat expectations in corporate earnings reports. So while they generally maintain profit margins, it is telling that fewer corporations are exceeding their targets.

20 Jul 2019 - 4:22AM

Companies typically set themselves up to beat expectations in corporate earnings reports. So while they generally maintain profit margins, it is telling that fewer corporations are exceeding their targets.

The trade war lull is a good time to assess the damage, and corporate earnings give investors that chance
Macroscope | Fed easing can give equity markets a boost, but it won’t keep them aloft

The expectation of a rate cut has given US stocks a lift this month, but monetary easing by itself won’t outweigh the more important indicators of economic health, like earnings growth, particularly amid the current political and trade uncertainties.

28 Jun 2019 - 10:46PM

The expectation of a rate cut has given US stocks a lift this month, but monetary easing by itself won’t outweigh the more important indicators of economic health, like earnings growth, particularly amid the current political and trade uncertainties.

Fed easing can give equity markets a boost, but it won’t keep them aloft
Macroscope | Is the global economy thriving, diving or both? Perhaps quantum theory can help explain

The trade war is hitting manufacturing activity, particularly in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Germany, but the services sector, which holds the key to employment and consumption, remains resilient. However, things could change if uncertainties drag on.

7 Jun 2019 - 10:18PM

The trade war is hitting manufacturing activity, particularly in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Germany, but the services sector, which holds the key to employment and consumption, remains resilient. However, things could change if uncertainties drag on.

Is the global economy thriving, diving or both? Perhaps quantum theory can help explain
Macroscope | The US economy still leads the pack, but not for long as spectre of trade war with China recedes

The US economy started the year with a bang but growth is likely to flatten out over the year. Meanwhile, Asia is looking up as a US-China trade deal appears imminent. 2018’s economic divergence is unlikely to continue.

3 May 2019 - 10:26PM

The US economy started the year with a bang but growth is likely to flatten out over the year. Meanwhile, Asia is looking up as a US-China trade deal appears imminent. 2018’s economic divergence is unlikely to continue.

The US economy still leads the pack, but not for long as spectre of trade war with China recedes
Macroscope | Economic data may point to a favourable bounce for investors midyear, but market risks remain

Economies around the world – including the US and China – will see growth stabilise, not pick up or drop significantly. Meanwhile, company earnings will have to bottom out or even rise to calm investor nerves.

5 Apr 2019 - 10:25PM

Economies around the world – including the US and China – will see growth stabilise, not pick up or drop significantly. Meanwhile, company earnings will have to bottom out or even rise to calm investor nerves.

Economic data may point to a favourable bounce for investors midyear, but market risks remain
Macroscope | Car sales, TV sets and the McDonald’s McRib – what consumer spending tells us about the health of the US economy

Consumption is all-important to the US economy: it tells us that the economy is likely to slow this year, but is strong enough to stay steady in 2019.

2 Mar 2019 - 1:55AM

Consumption is all-important to the US economy: it tells us that the economy is likely to slow this year, but is strong enough to stay steady in 2019.

Car sales, TV sets and the McDonald’s McRib – what consumer spending tells us about the health of the US economy
Macroscope | So, are US interest rates going up or down? All we know is that the Fed doesn’t really know

The US Federal Reserve’s latest shift, to take a pause during a tightening cycle is relatively rare. But Fed chair Jerome Powell seems to have abandoned a previous policy of giving clear signals to the market.

11 Feb 2019 - 11:04AM

The US Federal Reserve’s latest shift, to take a pause during a tightening cycle is relatively rare. But Fed chair Jerome Powell seems to have abandoned a previous policy of giving clear signals to the market.

So, are US interest rates going up or down? All we know is that the Fed doesn’t really know
Macroscope | Financial markets could be in for more pain, but sticking to a long-term position may be worth it

While there is uncertainty over US monetary tightening, the trade war, Chinese economic policy and global politics, the short-term volatility of the past few weeks may be fading.

11 Jan 2019 - 10:22PM

While there is uncertainty over US monetary tightening, the trade war, Chinese economic policy and global politics, the short-term volatility of the past few weeks may be fading.

Financial markets could be in for more pain, but sticking to a long-term position may be worth it
Macroscope | The Fed’s quest for a ‘neutral’ interest rate has put the markets on edge. It shouldn’t

With the markets jumping at every Fed statement, anxiety is growing over the Treasury yield curve flattening or, worse, inverting. A closer look shows the Fed is closely watching evolving economic data and its policy will remain accommodative.

7 Dec 2018 - 10:23PM

With the markets jumping at every Fed statement, anxiety is growing over the Treasury yield curve flattening or, worse, inverting. A closer look shows the Fed is closely watching evolving economic data and its policy will remain accommodative.

The Fed’s quest for a ‘neutral’ interest rate has put the markets on edge. It shouldn’t
Macroscope | The trade war did not trigger stock market volatility, anxiety over peaking corporate earnings did

The cause of the jitters in global equity markets is not easy to pinpoint, but fears of an easing in corporate earnings growth is a big factor.

2 Nov 2018 - 10:48PM

The cause of the jitters in global equity markets is not easy to pinpoint, but fears of an easing in corporate earnings growth is a big factor.

The trade war did not trigger stock market volatility, anxiety over peaking corporate earnings did
Why high-yield corporate bonds are still attractive and the smaller European market deserves attention

While bond markets are experiencing a complicated period, it’s not yet time to ditch corporate debt, including high-yield bonds, in favour of safer government securities.

14 Sep 2018 - 10:31PM

While bond markets are experiencing a complicated period, it’s not yet time to ditch corporate debt, including high-yield bonds, in favour of safer government securities.

Why high-yield corporate bonds are still attractive and the smaller European market deserves attention
Macroscope | Why oil and gold look like an expensive insurance policy right now despite market risks

While there are plenty of market risks to spook investors, a flight to the traditional safe investment havens might be premature.

17 Aug 2018 - 10:32PM

While there are plenty of market risks to spook investors, a flight to the traditional safe investment havens might be premature.

Why oil and gold look like an expensive insurance policy right now despite market risks
Macroscope | A global recession is on the way, but it’s likely to be mild

While a down cycle will inevitably follow America’s currently buoyant growth, a catastrophic downturn like the 2008 global financial crisis is unlikely. Debt levels are more manageable, and the imbalances in the economy less severe.

18 May 2018 - 10:26PM

While a down cycle will inevitably follow America’s currently buoyant growth, a catastrophic downturn like the 2008 global financial crisis is unlikely. Debt levels are more manageable, and the imbalances in the economy less severe.

A global recession is on the way, but it’s likely to be mild