Kerry Craig

Kerry Craig

Kerry Craig is a global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

Latest from Kerry Craig

Macroscope | What to expect in a year of policy tightening and US interest rate rises

This year may well see not only the end of bond purchases by the Fed and the start of the rate hike cycle, but also the first steps in reducing its swollen balance sheet. The highly valued parts of the market, such as growth stocks and tech stocks, will come under pressure.

This year may well see not only the end of bond purchases by the Fed and the start of the rate hike cycle, but also the first steps in reducing its swollen balance sheet. The highly valued parts of the market, such as growth stocks and tech stocks, will come under pressure.

14 Jan 2022 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Federal Reserve hawks will push for faster tapering, interest rate rises despite Omicron

Amid a warming US economy and growing inflation, Fed hawks will push for rate rises to start as soon as mid-2022 at the next key meeting. But how much the Fed allows tapering to quicken will depend on Omicron risks

Amid a warming US economy and growing inflation, Fed hawks will push for rate rises to start as soon as mid-2022 at the next key meeting. But how much the Fed allows tapering to quicken will depend on Omicron risks

3 Dec 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | With no gold rush, are investors really worried about inflation and a growth slowdown?

Despite warnings about rising inflation amid supply-chain disruptions and tight labour markets, the gold price has remained steady. Gold is likely to lose its appeal as inflation pressures ease and central banks shift away from emergency policy settings.

Despite warnings about rising inflation amid supply-chain disruptions and tight labour markets, the gold price has remained steady. Gold is likely to lose its appeal as inflation pressures ease and central banks shift away from emergency policy settings.

5 Nov 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Transitory inflation? That depends on how quickly central bankers act

The key is the speed at which monetary and fiscal policy is tightened and how fast wage growth rises. Supply and demand imbalances will resolve but pressures from the labour market shortage and continued fiscal spending will linger.

The key is the speed at which monetary and fiscal policy is tightened and how fast wage growth rises. Supply and demand imbalances will resolve but pressures from the labour market shortage and continued fiscal spending will linger.

1 Oct 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | In China and the US, economic recovery takes a disappointing turn

The potential for a slowdown in the world’s two largest economies is feeding concerns about a peaking in global growth. Both countries are also facing another wave of Covid-19 cases. The Delta variant is the biggest risk when it comes to the outlook for any economy.

The potential for a slowdown in the world’s two largest economies is feeding concerns about a peaking in global growth. Both countries are also facing another wave of Covid-19 cases. The Delta variant is the biggest risk when it comes to the outlook for any economy.

21 Aug 2021 - 6:36AM
Macroscope | Why are bond yields so low when economic recovery indicators are positive?

Part of the reason could be worries about what lies ahead, in particular the spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant. The dampeners on government bond yields will fade over time, and the prospects for brighter economic growth should send yields higher.

Part of the reason could be worries about what lies ahead, in particular the spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant. The dampeners on government bond yields will fade over time, and the prospects for brighter economic growth should send yields higher.

23 Jul 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Flagging yields amid rising inflation raise fears the bond market is broken

Falling yields might be a sign that messages around the transitory nature of inflation are starting to sink in. The onus is on the US Federal Reserve to justify its accommodative stance and lean into its guidance that it will tolerate higher inflation before raising rates.

Falling yields might be a sign that messages around the transitory nature of inflation are starting to sink in. The onus is on the US Federal Reserve to justify its accommodative stance and lean into its guidance that it will tolerate higher inflation before raising rates.

18 Jun 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | How will Joe Biden’s stimulus packages, with higher taxes, affect stock markets?

Funding stimulus measures through higher corporate and personal taxes may hit US equities. While technology, communication services and health care sectors may be adversely affected, industrial, energy and materials sectors stand to gain.

Funding stimulus measures through higher corporate and personal taxes may hit US equities. While technology, communication services and health care sectors may be adversely affected, industrial, energy and materials sectors stand to gain.

8 May 2021 - 4:14AM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: why US dollar’s puzzling strength is only temporary

Investors expecting the currency to fade have been flummoxed by a reinvigorated US economy. Renewed dollar depreciation will come, though, as the sugar rush of stimulus fades and other countries’ vaccine programmes catch up.

Investors expecting the currency to fade have been flummoxed by a reinvigorated US economy. Renewed dollar depreciation will come, though, as the sugar rush of stimulus fades and other countries’ vaccine programmes catch up.

9 Apr 2021 - 10:37PM
Macroscope | The Fed may be in tune but will inflation eventually spoil the party?

Investors will be weighing how credible the Fed’s outlook is for a US economy supercharged by a massive stimulus boost that may cause inflation to spike, forcing an early move on either bond purchases or the rate outlook.

Investors will be weighing how credible the Fed’s outlook is for a US economy supercharged by a massive stimulus boost that may cause inflation to spike, forcing an early move on either bond purchases or the rate outlook.

20 Mar 2021 - 2:10AM
Macroscope | Stock markets are likely to continue climbing, given the unexpectedly good US earnings reports

Solid support will come from US earnings, the global vaccine roll-out and accommodative policies, with non-US markets performing better. Risks lie in the ability of companies to control costs as the economy improves, and taxes and wages rise.

Solid support will come from US earnings, the global vaccine roll-out and accommodative policies, with non-US markets performing better. Risks lie in the ability of companies to control costs as the economy improves, and taxes and wages rise.

19 Feb 2021 - 4:01PM
Macroscope | Inflation fears are not unfounded but a nightmare scenario is unlikely

True, an inflation spike and sharply higher bond yields would derail markets. But this is unlikely given the slack in the economy and central bankers’ reluctance to unwind easy policy.

True, an inflation spike and sharply higher bond yields would derail markets. But this is unlikely given the slack in the economy and central bankers’ reluctance to unwind easy policy.

8 Jan 2021 - 7:15PM
Macroscope | Bond defaults will force a needed repricing of risk in China’s credit market

The sheer volume of debt going bad, particularly involving state-owned enterprises, signals the government is taking a more market-based approach, which will improve transparency in the worlds second-largest bond market.

The sheer volume of debt going bad, particularly involving state-owned enterprises, signals the government is taking a more market-based approach, which will improve transparency in the worlds second-largest bond market.

4 Dec 2020 - 10:31PM
Macroscope | Bond investors chasing yield should look further afield to shake off the blues

The ultra-low interest rates adopted to fight off global economic malaise have made government paper in developed markets less attractive. Corporate credit and emerging market debt will have to be part of the playbook.

The ultra-low interest rates adopted to fight off global economic malaise have made government paper in developed markets less attractive. Corporate credit and emerging market debt will have to be part of the playbook.

23 Oct 2020 - 10:19PM
Macroscope | China’s bond market a potential hero for investors seeking yields

The People’s Bank of China has similar tools as other central banks but chose to use them more delicately than the sledgehammer approach of its peers. The relatively conservative nature of its support has increased the attractiveness of Chinese government bonds by creating a healthy spread over developed bonds.

The People’s Bank of China has similar tools as other central banks but chose to use them more delicately than the sledgehammer approach of its peers. The relatively conservative nature of its support has increased the attractiveness of Chinese government bonds by creating a healthy spread over developed bonds.

25 Sep 2020 - 10:20PM
Macroscope | Earnings season: low expectations keep US stock market flying high

Actual earning results have been better than forecast, and that’s good enough for the US stock market. Despite the positive trend, however, the outlook for sectors that rely on the physical presence of people for profits remains bleak.

Actual earning results have been better than forecast, and that’s good enough for the US stock market. Despite the positive trend, however, the outlook for sectors that rely on the physical presence of people for profits remains bleak.

21 Aug 2020 - 10:19PM
Macroscope | Economies revving up recovery from coronavirus should expect many detours

Governments and central banks’ commitment to nurse the global economy back to health is reassuring, but the virus won’t be so quickly tamed. Sectors which can operate with social distancing policies are likely to do better than industries heavily reliant on the free flow of people.

Governments and central banks’ commitment to nurse the global economy back to health is reassuring, but the virus won’t be so quickly tamed. Sectors which can operate with social distancing policies are likely to do better than industries heavily reliant on the free flow of people.

3 Jul 2020 - 10:22PM
Macroscope | Are European stocks the next big opportunity as economic recovery takes hold?

European equity indices have not bounced back in the same way as their US counterparts, indicating there is room for gains, especially as European officials have taken strong measures to boost recovery.

European equity indices have not bounced back in the same way as their US counterparts, indicating there is room for gains, especially as European officials have taken strong measures to boost recovery.

12 Jun 2020 - 10:28PM
Macroscope | US stocks have bucked the coronavirus downturn, but will corporate earnings halt their buoyancy?

The recent rebound in equities has been prompted by aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus from central banks and governments, and a belief that the worst of the pandemic has passed. A deterioration in corporate earnings could stymie this trend.

The recent rebound in equities has been prompted by aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus from central banks and governments, and a belief that the worst of the pandemic has passed. A deterioration in corporate earnings could stymie this trend.

8 May 2020 - 10:23PM
Macroscope | Will Saudi-Russia deal to end the oil price war be enough as coronavirus-battered global economy grinds to a halt?

When the oil price war began, no one had accounted for the economic damage that would be caused by Covid-19, or how demand for oil would evaporate. The reality is that oil under US$30 per barrel is not sustainable for either country.

When the oil price war began, no one had accounted for the economic damage that would be caused by Covid-19, or how demand for oil would evaporate. The reality is that oil under US$30 per barrel is not sustainable for either country.

10 Apr 2020 - 10:24PM
Macroscope | Falling bond yields may be less a sign of a bubble than a reflection of the long-term trend of a mature market

The low interest rates and bond-buying schemes of central banks are pushing up prices, creating what some fear to be the mother of all bubbles in the bond markets. But with no sign of investor speculation, gradually falling bond yields may actually be due to a structural market change.

The low interest rates and bond-buying schemes of central banks are pushing up prices, creating what some fear to be the mother of all bubbles in the bond markets. But with no sign of investor speculation, gradually falling bond yields may actually be due to a structural market change.

29 Feb 2020 - 4:23AM
Macroscope | With the Federal Reserve smiling on them, equity markets should have a good year

The US and China have reached a partial trade deal, amid forecasts for higher global economic growth in 2020. In addition, central banks like the Fed are not only keeping policy loose but also showing greater tolerance towards inflation.

The US and China have reached a partial trade deal, amid forecasts for higher global economic growth in 2020. In addition, central banks like the Fed are not only keeping policy loose but also showing greater tolerance towards inflation.

25 Jan 2020 - 1:44AM
Macroscope | US-China trade tension relief has helped nurture green shoots of global growth again, but can they be sustained?

Easing of the trade war tensions and some clarity on Brexit have lifted markets after a year of uncertainty. Details on both are still to be hammered out, however, so investors should be cautious.

Easing of the trade war tensions and some clarity on Brexit have lifted markets after a year of uncertainty. Details on both are still to be hammered out, however, so investors should be cautious.

21 Dec 2019 - 2:10AM
Macroscope | Even as an expected US-China trade deal boosts appetite for riskier assets, Treasuries remain attractive

Market optimism stems from anticipation of a US-China trade war deal and signs that sentiment in the manufacturing sector is slowly improving. However, as investors turn to riskier assets, they must also build protection against downside risk into their portfolios.

Market optimism stems from anticipation of a US-China trade war deal and signs that sentiment in the manufacturing sector is slowly improving. However, as investors turn to riskier assets, they must also build protection against downside risk into their portfolios.

16 Nov 2019 - 3:38AM
Macroscope | Markets lifted by US-China trade and Brexit breakthroughs but deep economic risks remain

Receding political risks look likely to keep market spirits up for the rest of 2019 but be warned: global growth continues to slow and corporate investment remains weak while the props for growth – reforms, tax cuts, fiscal spending – look shaky.

Receding political risks look likely to keep market spirits up for the rest of 2019 but be warned: global growth continues to slow and corporate investment remains weak while the props for growth – reforms, tax cuts, fiscal spending – look shaky.

26 Oct 2019 - 1:13AM
Macroscope | Sudden shift in the normally calm US cash markets doesn’t signal a new credit crunch

The recent ‘pipe blockage’ in the US financial system caused fears of a much bigger problem with the Fed’s balance sheet. But, sometimes supply and demand don’t match and, on this occasion, the mismatch was simply greater than expected and was fixed.

The recent ‘pipe blockage’ in the US financial system caused fears of a much bigger problem with the Fed’s balance sheet. But, sometimes supply and demand don’t match and, on this occasion, the mismatch was simply greater than expected and was fixed.

27 Sep 2019 - 10:45PM
Macroscope | The bond market is flashing a recession warning, but that’s no cause for alarm yet

Historically, a yield curve inversion precedes a recession. However, following an era of easy money, an inversion might simply signal that markets are expecting loose monetary policy again.

Historically, a yield curve inversion precedes a recession. However, following an era of easy money, an inversion might simply signal that markets are expecting loose monetary policy again.

16 Aug 2019 - 10:24PM
Macroscope | The trade war lull is a good time to assess the damage, and corporate earnings give investors that chance

Companies typically set themselves up to beat expectations in corporate earnings reports. So while they generally maintain profit margins, it is telling that fewer corporations are exceeding their targets.

Companies typically set themselves up to beat expectations in corporate earnings reports. So while they generally maintain profit margins, it is telling that fewer corporations are exceeding their targets.

20 Jul 2019 - 4:22AM
Macroscope | Fed easing can give equity markets a boost, but it won’t keep them aloft

The expectation of a rate cut has given US stocks a lift this month, but monetary easing by itself won’t outweigh the more important indicators of economic health, like earnings growth, particularly amid the current political and trade uncertainties.

The expectation of a rate cut has given US stocks a lift this month, but monetary easing by itself won’t outweigh the more important indicators of economic health, like earnings growth, particularly amid the current political and trade uncertainties.

28 Jun 2019 - 10:46PM
Macroscope | Is the global economy thriving, diving or both? Perhaps quantum theory can help explain

The trade war is hitting manufacturing activity, particularly in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Germany, but the services sector, which holds the key to employment and consumption, remains resilient. However, things could change if uncertainties drag on.

The trade war is hitting manufacturing activity, particularly in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Germany, but the services sector, which holds the key to employment and consumption, remains resilient. However, things could change if uncertainties drag on.

7 Jun 2019 - 10:18PM