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US-China relations
Opinion
Cary Huang

The US breaks free of its nuclear treaty with Russia to focus on its main target: China

  • Washington is now free to test and deploy the intermediate-range missiles it believes it needs to compete with its most serious challenger
  • China’s growing arsenal sets the scene for the resurgence of nuclear geopolitics

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A US Air Force F-35 plane is shown on a TV screen firing a missile near the models of China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier, as part of an exhibit at the Military Museum in Beijing. The demise of the INF Treaty raises the spectre of a new arms race between the US and China. Photo: AP
On the surface, the primary reason behind the United States’ recent withdrawal from the bilateral Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was Russia’s violation of the terms of the treaty. But, on closer inspection, Washington’s main motivation and target is Beijing.

The treaty, signed by President Ronald Reagan and his Soviet counterpart Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, was aimed at eliminating short- and intermediate-range land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and missile launchers which are armed with nuclear warheads.

President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the treaty after Russia refused to destroy a new intermediate-range missile system that Washington and its Nato allies said violated the pact. But the more important reason behind the US exit is that Washington believes the treaty is unfit for the new geostrategic status quo since it did not apply to China, which maintains, according to a US government report, the world’s “largest and most diverse” range of land-based missiles, including the DF-21 and DF-26.
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Analysts say China’s massive missile deployments are aimed at undermining Taiwan’s defences. They target Guam and other key US bases in Japan, South Korea and elsewhere in the region, and deny the US military’s access to the area, in essence an “anti-access, area denial” strategy. Beijing has also installed military equipment on artificial islands it built in the disputed South China Sea.
Freed from the pact, Washington can now compete with China, whose arsenal is largely made up of weapons prohibited under the INF Treaty. According to US Defence Secretary Mark Esper, as much as 80 per cent of China’s inventory is INF-range systems.
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