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Macroscope
Opinion
Tai Hui

How can Hong Kong investors best protect against inflation? High-yield bonds may provide the answer

  • About one-third of developed-market government bonds are trading at negative yields now. This essentially means paying a government for the privilege of borrowing money from it. But some believe bonds can still deliver capital gains

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A bank employee counts Hong Kong banknotes. With inflation at 3 per cent, savers in Hong Kong are losing purchasing power. Photo: Bloomberg

Inflation in Hong Kong stood at 3 per cent in July. Given that most Hong Kong dollar savings accounts are paying close to zero interest, savers are effectively being robbed by the silent thief of inflation. For every HK$10,000 in a savings account, you lose HK$1 in purchasing power every day. This may not sound like much, but it all adds up when investment prospects are becoming more challenging.

Hongkongers who don’t want to see the value of their savings whittled away could try putting that money in a time deposit. Locking up your capital is one way to generate a return, or earn a liquidity premium. However, with the US Federal Reserve very possibly looking to cut rates further in the months ahead, time deposit interest rates could fall. It might be better than nothing, but it would still be a losing proposition against inflation.

If it is any consolation, Hongkongers are not the only ones facing poor cash returns. Europe and Japan are, too. While most European banks are avoiding charging depositors, the interest rate environment is becoming more difficult. One Danish bank recently started charging negative interest rates on deposits of more than 7.5 million kroner (HK$8.8 million). Some Swiss banks may also start doing the same this year.

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After the global financial crisis, major central banks around the world cut policy rates to zero and started buying government bonds and other assets to reduce borrowing costs for companies and households. This also meant bond yields collapsed and turned negative in extreme cases. A small part of this programme was only unwound in the past few years, especially in the US.
US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell (left) and New York Federal Reserve president John Williams walk together ahead of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole on August 22. The US Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates further. Photo: Reuters
US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell (left) and New York Federal Reserve president John Williams walk together ahead of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole on August 22. The US Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates further. Photo: Reuters
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In 2015, the Fed started raising rates and selling assets to normalise its balance sheet. However, with global growth losing momentum due to the US-China trade war, central banks are back to loosening monetary policy. This has put negative yields back in focus.

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