Tai Hui

Tai Hui

Tai Hui is chief market strategist for the Asia-Pacific at JP Morgan Asset Management. Based in Hong Kong, he formulates and disseminates the company's view on the market, economy and investing to financial advisers and investors in Asia. He regularly appears on international and local financial media, including as a guest host on CNBC Asia, as well as Bloomberg TV and Reuters TV.

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Latest from Tai Hui

Macroscope | Interest rate rises off the table as Asian economies try to curb speculation and asset prices

As the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates soon, Asian central banks’ ability to take the lead is limited. Instead, policies that target credit growth and build buffers to protect the lenders and borrowers can help prevent overheating.

26 Feb 2021 - 6:00PM

As the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates soon, Asian central banks’ ability to take the lead is limited. Instead, policies that target credit growth and build buffers to protect the lenders and borrowers can help prevent overheating.

Interest rate rises off the table as Asian economies try to curb speculation and asset prices
Macroscope | What Biden’s urgent policy priorities mean for Asia, and the world

The new US president’s focus will be on taming the pandemic at home, not rolling back Trump’s trade measures against China. But the recovery of the US economy, especially the service sector, is critical to boost the global economy.

18 Feb 2021 - 11:33AM

The new US president’s focus will be on taming the pandemic at home, not rolling back Trump’s trade measures against China. But the recovery of the US economy, especially the service sector, is critical to boost the global economy.

What Biden’s urgent policy priorities mean for Asia, and the world
Macroscope | Why tech stocks and sustainable investing are good long-term bets

Over a long horizon, a contrarian investment strategy does not pay off. Instead, it is preferable to bet on trends that look set to stay, such as innovation in the technology sector and policy shifts that support carbon-neutral goals.

18 Dec 2020 - 3:57PM

Over a long horizon, a contrarian investment strategy does not pay off. Instead, it is preferable to bet on trends that look set to stay, such as innovation in the technology sector and policy shifts that support carbon-neutral goals.

Why tech stocks and sustainable investing are good long-term bets
Macroscope | Biden’s No 1 task: to see America through the pandemic and limit its impact on the economy

Further fiscal stimulus to support the economy must also be high on Biden’s list of priorities, given that earlier support measures have expired. A divided Congress means he must operate down the middle to gain bipartisan support.

13 Nov 2020 - 10:32PM

Further fiscal stimulus to support the economy must also be high on Biden’s list of priorities, given that earlier support measures have expired. A divided Congress means he must operate down the middle to gain bipartisan support.

Biden’s No 1 task: to see America through the pandemic and limit its impact on the economy
Macroscope | Why Hong Kong iBonds, China government bonds offer a haven to investors seeking yields

US and European government bonds used to be an insurance policy but now investors are paying a higher price for protection that might not be as effective. Hong Kong’s inflation-linked bonds offer an alternative, while Chinese bonds are drawing international attention.

9 Oct 2020 - 10:28PM

US and European government bonds used to be an insurance policy but now investors are paying a higher price for protection that might not be as effective. Hong Kong’s inflation-linked bonds offer an alternative, while Chinese bonds are drawing international attention.

Why Hong Kong iBonds, China government bonds offer a haven to investors seeking yields
Macroscope | Why the Federal Reserve’s bid to boost US inflation is good news for Asia

Fed’s switch to allowing inflation above 2 per cent means US rates will stay lower for longer, boosting demand for higher yielding bonds, particularly in emerging markets.

4 Sep 2020 - 10:21PM

Fed’s switch to allowing inflation above 2 per cent means US rates will stay lower for longer, boosting demand for higher yielding bonds, particularly in emerging markets.

Why the Federal Reserve’s bid to boost US inflation is good news for Asia
Macroscope | How governments are holding on to the fragile recovery as fresh Covid-19 infections batter economies

Recovery may be delayed but is unlikely to be derailed with more fiscal stimulus coming, low interest rates, targeted lockdowns, and businesses finding creative ways to operate.

7 Aug 2020 - 10:29PM

Recovery may be delayed but is unlikely to be derailed with more fiscal stimulus coming, low interest rates, targeted lockdowns, and businesses finding creative ways to operate.

How governments are holding on to the fragile recovery as fresh Covid-19 infections batter economies
Macroscope | How bailout debt is painting governments and central banks into a corner

Central banks, under pressure to buy assets and keep rates down to support government debt, have promised to keep it temporary to avoid the risks of inflation and capital flight. But unwinding the policy will prove very difficult.

10 Jul 2020 - 10:31PM

Central banks, under pressure to buy assets and keep rates down to support government debt, have promised to keep it temporary to avoid the risks of inflation and capital flight. But unwinding the policy will prove very difficult.

How bailout debt is painting governments and central banks into a corner
Opinion | Coronavirus lockdowns are lifting and economies are reopening, but the hard work of recovery has only just begun

Governments lifting coronavirus measures and allowing some businesses to resume operations suggests stage one of a global recovery has begun. The second stage will be more challenging with lingering economic damage and US-China trade tensions.

13 Oct 2020 - 9:18PM

Governments lifting coronavirus measures and allowing some businesses to resume operations suggests stage one of a global recovery has begun. The second stage will be more challenging with lingering economic damage and US-China trade tensions.

Coronavirus lockdowns are lifting and economies are reopening, but the hard work of recovery has only just begun
Macroscope | The coronavirus won’t kill globalisation, but might just change global business for the better

While companies will push to diversify supply chains and pay more attention to ESG factors, their preference for globalisation – and the profits it brings – won’t change

1 May 2020 - 10:33PM

While companies will push to diversify supply chains and pay more attention to ESG factors, their preference for globalisation – and the profits it brings – won’t change

The coronavirus won’t kill globalisation, but might just change global business for the better
Macroscope | Coronavirus pandemic could be an economic policy turning point, reconfiguring the public-private nexus

The zero-interest rate environment is likely to continue long after the crisis abates and government debt will balloon. Governments will have to make difficult decision on which companies to save, without upsetting the principle of market forces.

27 Mar 2020 - 10:23PM

The zero-interest rate environment is likely to continue long after the crisis abates and government debt will balloon. Governments will have to make difficult decision on which companies to save, without upsetting the principle of market forces.

Coronavirus pandemic could be an economic policy turning point, reconfiguring the public-private nexus
Macroscope | Despite the coronavirus crisis and trade war, factories have good reasons to stay in China

The Covid-19 outbreak is holding up production in parts of China, and making relocation a more concrete possibility. However, China’s logistics infrastructure and huge consumer market give it advantages over other production locations.

21 Feb 2020 - 10:22PM

The Covid-19 outbreak is holding up production in parts of China, and making relocation a more concrete possibility. However, China’s logistics infrastructure and huge consumer market give it advantages over other production locations.

Despite the coronavirus crisis and trade war, factories have good reasons to stay in China
Macroscope | Markets aren’t losing any sleep over the US, Iran and oil yet – the trade war is still more of a worry

Justifiable fears about a full-scale US-Iran conflict gave markets the jitters, but they quickly calmed down. For investors, the key is to understand whether a particular event will have a sustained impact on the global economy and corporate performance.

17 Jan 2020 - 10:31PM

Justifiable fears about a full-scale US-Iran conflict gave markets the jitters, but they quickly calmed down. For investors, the key is to understand whether a particular event will have a sustained impact on the global economy and corporate performance.

Markets aren’t losing any sleep over the US, Iran and oil yet – the trade war is still more of a worry
Macroscope | Why the People’s Bank of China is easing monetary policy carefully, with a chisel not a sledgehammer

This month, China’s central bank cut lending rates by just 5 basis points. Unlike during previous slowdowns, the PBOC is keen to avoid flooding the economy with liquidity and starting another boom-bust cycle.

29 Nov 2019 - 10:23PM

This month, China’s central bank cut lending rates by just 5 basis points. Unlike during previous slowdowns, the PBOC is keen to avoid flooding the economy with liquidity and starting another boom-bust cycle.

Why the People’s Bank of China is easing monetary policy carefully, with a chisel not a sledgehammer
Macroscope | What to expect from the 2020 US elections: more disunity, no love for China

History shows that 68 per cent of incumbent presidents get re-elected. So Donald Trump is likely to stay, the division between the House and the Senate is likely to continue, as are US-China tensions.

23 Nov 2019 - 1:32AM

History shows that 68 per cent of incumbent presidents get re-elected. So Donald Trump is likely to stay, the division between the House and the Senate is likely to continue, as are US-China tensions.

What to expect from the 2020 US elections: more disunity, no love for China
Macroscope | More policy easing won’t get the global economy out the mud – government spending might

Central banks like the Fed and ECB can hit the accelerator of policy easing all they like but the moribund global economy can only gain traction if governments start spending and geopolitical tensions ease.

5 Oct 2019 - 1:32AM

Central banks like the Fed and ECB can hit the accelerator of policy easing all they like but the moribund global economy can only gain traction if governments start spending and geopolitical tensions ease.

More policy easing won’t get the global economy out the mud – government spending might
Macroscope | Why China’s capital liberalisation needs to be a two-way street

A greater diversity of investors minimises volatility and subjects Chinese markets to greater scrutiny, strengthening them in the long run. In return, Chinese investors with greater access to overseas markets could diversify their portfolios and bring best practices home.

20 Sep 2019 - 10:24PM

A greater diversity of investors minimises volatility and subjects Chinese markets to greater scrutiny, strengthening them in the long run. In return, Chinese investors with greater access to overseas markets could diversify their portfolios and bring best practices home.

Why China’s capital liberalisation needs to be a two-way street
Macroscope | How can Hong Kong investors best protect against inflation? High-yield bonds may provide the answer

About one-third of developed-market government bonds are trading at negative yields now. This essentially means paying a government for the privilege of borrowing money from it. But some believe bonds can still deliver capital gains.

2 Sep 2019 - 9:00AM

About one-third of developed-market government bonds are trading at negative yields now. This essentially means paying a government for the privilege of borrowing money from it. But some believe bonds can still deliver capital gains.

How can Hong Kong investors best protect against inflation? High-yield bonds may provide the answer
Macroscope | With no clear path for Brexit, expect more volatility in Britain’s markets

Recent parliamentary debacles show Britain has reason to doubt Boris Johnson’s promise of a clean break from the EU.

3 Aug 2019 - 4:44AM

Recent parliamentary debacles show Britain has reason to doubt Boris Johnson’s promise of a clean break from the EU.

With no clear path for Brexit, expect more volatility in Britain’s markets
Macroscope | As Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and other populists loosen the purse strings, what about the economy?

Politicians are promising to spend more or cut taxes to woo voters give central banks little wiggle room if the economy overheats. Investors will have to work hard to seek income in high-yield bonds, high-dividend equity or alternative assets.

21 Jun 2019 - 10:28PM

Politicians are promising to spend more or cut taxes to woo voters give central banks little wiggle room if the economy overheats. Investors will have to work hard to seek income in high-yield bonds, high-dividend equity or alternative assets.

As Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and other populists loosen the purse strings, what about the economy?
Macroscope | Businesses shiver in the uncertain climate as US-China trade war tensions are renewed

It looks like a return to the downbeat days of 2018, except this time around, central banks’ willingness to keep monetary policy loose could signal hope for investors

17 May 2019 - 10:20PM

It looks like a return to the downbeat days of 2018, except this time around, central banks’ willingness to keep monetary policy loose could signal hope for investors

Businesses shiver in the uncertain climate as US-China trade war tensions are renewed
Macroscope | Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are all wrong. The US needs an independent Fed

The stability of the global financial system depends on the sound policies of an independent Fed. The president’s criticism and the push by some Democrats for a monetary system that would undermine the Fed’s role are unwise.

20 Apr 2019 - 2:07AM

The stability of the global financial system depends on the sound policies of an independent Fed. The president’s criticism and the push by some Democrats for a monetary system that would undermine the Fed’s role are unwise.

Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are all wrong. The US needs an independent Fed
Macroscope | What inflation? In the US, a strong dollar, steady oil prices and low wage growth are keeping it low - for now at least

The Federal Reserve has declined to commit to additional rate hikes because inflation hasn’t accompanied US growth. If that changes, though, the pain could be serious.

30 Mar 2019 - 1:03AM

The Federal Reserve has declined to commit to additional rate hikes because inflation hasn’t accompanied US growth. If that changes, though, the pain could be serious.

What inflation? In the US, a strong dollar, steady oil prices and low wage growth are keeping it low - for now at least
Macroscope | The Fed, Bank of Japan and ECB are all signalling that the rate-tightening era may have passed … for now

The Fed has slowed its rate hikes, while there’s no sign of any monetary tightening at the BOJ and ECB for now. This could be good news for Hong Kong and risk assets, at least in the short term

22 Feb 2019 - 10:23PM

The Fed has slowed its rate hikes, while there’s no sign of any monetary tightening at the BOJ and ECB for now. This could be good news for Hong Kong and risk assets, at least in the short term

The Fed, Bank of Japan and ECB are all signalling that the rate-tightening era may have passed … for now
Macroscope | European politics is in flux, but the news is not all bad for investors

The EU has a headache on its hands this year with Brexit, fiscal discipline and mass protests, on top of volatile parliamentary elections in May. Even so, there are quality companies that are less sensitive to market volatility.

25 Jan 2019 - 10:46PM

The EU has a headache on its hands this year with Brexit, fiscal discipline and mass protests, on top of volatile parliamentary elections in May. Even so, there are quality companies that are less sensitive to market volatility.

European politics is in flux, but the news is not all bad for investors
Macroscope | For central banks in 2019, the catchword is caution

Now more than at any time in the past few years, central bankers will need to scrutinise and respond closely to evolving economic data, and be aware any miscommunication could adversely affect economic growth.

22 Dec 2018 - 1:53AM

Now more than at any time in the past few years, central bankers will need to scrutinise and respond closely to evolving economic data, and be aware any miscommunication could adversely affect economic growth.

For central banks in 2019, the catchword is caution
Macroscope | In 2018, cash outperformed most other asset classes. Will 2019 be different?

A survey of the regional outlooks shows economic fundamentals remain stable going into a new year, though risks will persist. As has been the case this year, the complex mix of geopolitical tension and economic challenges specific to the region will keep investors on their toes.

23 Nov 2018 - 10:24PM

A survey of the regional outlooks shows economic fundamentals remain stable going into a new year, though risks will persist. As has been the case this year, the complex mix of geopolitical tension and economic challenges specific to the region will keep investors on their toes.

In 2018, cash outperformed most other asset classes. Will 2019 be different?
Macroscope | Asian equities could see a rebound in 2019 – if three cogs in the wheel fall into place

Tai Hui says a weaker US dollar, resumption of dialogue between the US and China on trade, and more stimulus from China could turn the gloomy sentiment on Asian equities around.

26 Oct 2018 - 10:55PM

Tai Hui says a weaker US dollar, resumption of dialogue between the US and China on trade, and more stimulus from China could turn the gloomy sentiment on Asian equities around.

Asian equities could see a rebound in 2019 – if three cogs in the wheel fall into place
Macroscope | The next bear market is coming, but it should be less fierce than the last downturn

The global economy is showing decent momentum, and the US economy has become more stable. The next recession is more likely to resemble the mild ones of 1990 and 2001 than the 2008 monster.

28 Sep 2018 - 11:04PM

The global economy is showing decent momentum, and the US economy has become more stable. The next recession is more likely to resemble the mild ones of 1990 and 2001 than the 2008 monster.

The next bear market is coming, but it should be less fierce than the last downturn
Macroscope | Why the tech stocks bonanza may be ending and it’s time to hit the reset button on high hopes

As tech companies will face challenges in the near future, investors should temper expectations and focus on firms with a broad range of businesses.

24 Aug 2018 - 10:30PM

As tech companies will face challenges in the near future, investors should temper expectations and focus on firms with a broad range of businesses.

Why the tech stocks bonanza may be ending and it’s time to hit the reset button on high hopes