Tai Hui

Tai Hui

Tai Hui is chief market strategist for the Asia-Pacific at JP Morgan Asset Management. Based in Hong Kong, he formulates and disseminates the company's view on the market, economy and investing to financial advisers and investors in Asia. He regularly appears on international and local financial media, including as a guest host on CNBC Asia, as well as Bloomberg TV and Reuters TV.

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Latest from Tai Hui

Macroscope | As globalisation enters a new phase, companies and consumers will pay the price

In addition to electoral pressure in developed countries for jobs to be brought back home, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks mean globalisation is evolving. As companies seek to diversify supply chains, profits may well decline while consumers can expect to pay higher prices.

In addition to electoral pressure in developed countries for jobs to be brought back home, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks mean globalisation is evolving. As companies seek to diversify supply chains, profits may well decline while consumers can expect to pay higher prices.

14 May 2022 - 2:43AM
Macroscope | Is the US heading for a recession? There’s more to it than an inverted yield curve

Given the inverted yield curve, some investors fear the US economy is stalling, which could see the end of the equity market bull run. However, not only are there doubts about the yield curve’s ability to accurately predict a downturn, other indicators that monitor US recession risk remain healthy.

Given the inverted yield curve, some investors fear the US economy is stalling, which could see the end of the equity market bull run. However, not only are there doubts about the yield curve’s ability to accurately predict a downturn, other indicators that monitor US recession risk remain healthy.

9 Apr 2022 - 1:30AM
Macroscope | Higher energy prices over Ukraine invasion should worry Europe more than US

Europe and the UK rely on imports from Russia for a third of their gas, putting them at risk from disrupted deliveries amid fighting in Ukraine. The US should be more resilient given trends in household savings and spending on energy.

Europe and the UK rely on imports from Russia for a third of their gas, putting them at risk from disrupted deliveries amid fighting in Ukraine. The US should be more resilient given trends in household savings and spending on energy.

9 Mar 2022 - 1:47PM
Macroscope | For China, the costs of living with Covid-19 are still too high

China can’t just abandon its zero-Covid policy if it means health care services would be overrun, especially in rural areas. Economic reopening has facilitated robust recoveries in the US and Europe but it has also led to a number of challenges.

China can’t just abandon its zero-Covid policy if it means health care services would be overrun, especially in rural areas. Economic reopening has facilitated robust recoveries in the US and Europe but it has also led to a number of challenges.

28 Jan 2022 - 1:30PM
Opinion | Why the Federal Reserve is taking a modest approach to raising interest rates

The Fed’s more aggressive policy-tightening stance is not surprising in the face of US inflation. Yet, the expected interest rate rises two or three times a year seem relatively restrained given that unemployment is not a huge concern.

The Fed’s more aggressive policy-tightening stance is not surprising in the face of US inflation. Yet, the expected interest rate rises two or three times a year seem relatively restrained given that unemployment is not a huge concern.

26 Dec 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | How Joe Biden’s midterm election performance could affect the US stock market

Losing control of the House or Senate would make it harder for Biden to pass his reform agenda. Policies can still be pushed through via executive order, although this would add to uncertainty for investors and businesses.

Losing control of the House or Senate would make it harder for Biden to pass his reform agenda. Policies can still be pushed through via executive order, although this would add to uncertainty for investors and businesses.

20 Nov 2021 - 3:46AM
Macroscope | Global shift towards greater equality shows China’s ‘common prosperity’ goals are not unique

The breadth of Beijing’s reforms have received much attention, but policy proposals elsewhere show it is far from alone in seeking to put people before profit. However, governments also have to strike a balance between improving equality and achieving growth.

The breadth of Beijing’s reforms have received much attention, but policy proposals elsewhere show it is far from alone in seeking to put people before profit. However, governments also have to strike a balance between improving equality and achieving growth.

15 Oct 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Forget the 2013 ‘tantrum’ playbook as the US Fed prepares to taper its bond buying

In 2013, Treasury yields fell as tapering began, leaving bond and corporate debt markets higher. This time, US bond yields are likely to rise and could dampen returns in a stock market already jumpy from overheated valuations.

In 2013, Treasury yields fell as tapering began, leaving bond and corporate debt markets higher. This time, US bond yields are likely to rise and could dampen returns in a stock market already jumpy from overheated valuations.

18 Sep 2021 - 2:45AM
Macroscope | Why asset inflation could be the real danger, not higher consumer prices

Three factors have been driving US inflation – energy prices, production bottlenecks and aggressive stimulus programmes. But as these risks subside in the next two to three quarters, investors cannot afford to be complacent, given high equity valuations and the hot property markets.

Three factors have been driving US inflation – energy prices, production bottlenecks and aggressive stimulus programmes. But as these risks subside in the next two to three quarters, investors cannot afford to be complacent, given high equity valuations and the hot property markets.

13 Aug 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | 3 factors financial markets should watch over the next six months

The pace of vaccinations globally, the US Federal Reserve’s policy intentions and the UN climate change conference could all move markets.

The pace of vaccinations globally, the US Federal Reserve’s policy intentions and the UN climate change conference could all move markets.

2 Jul 2021 - 4:48PM
Macroscope | Time for Asia to ditch temporary Covid-19 measures and learn to live with the virus

Asian governments need to accept that infections will occur even after their populations have reached herd immunity. Lockdowns, closing borders and social distancing restrictions are only temporary and carry high economic costs.

Asian governments need to accept that infections will occur even after their populations have reached herd immunity. Lockdowns, closing borders and social distancing restrictions are only temporary and carry high economic costs.

28 May 2021 - 10:27PM
Macroscope | Climate crisis: race to cut carbon emissions could be gold mine for investors

China’s ambitious emission goals and the US returning to the Paris Agreement have energised environmental efforts. The global shift towards renewables is good for the environment and a multi-decade trend that investors should embrace.

China’s ambitious emission goals and the US returning to the Paris Agreement have energised environmental efforts. The global shift towards renewables is good for the environment and a multi-decade trend that investors should embrace.

24 Apr 2021 - 9:15AM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: vaccine success can help make up for prevention failures

Economies that have failed to control the virus so far might be able to compensate with successful vaccination programmes. Those who can catch up at this part of the race against Covid-19 can still emerge from the pandemic stronger.

Economies that have failed to control the virus so far might be able to compensate with successful vaccination programmes. Those who can catch up at this part of the race against Covid-19 can still emerge from the pandemic stronger.

2 Apr 2021 - 4:00PM
Macroscope | Interest rate rises off the table as Asian economies try to curb speculation and asset prices

As the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates soon, Asian central banks’ ability to take the lead is limited. Instead, policies that target credit growth and build buffers to protect the lenders and borrowers can help prevent overheating.

As the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates soon, Asian central banks’ ability to take the lead is limited. Instead, policies that target credit growth and build buffers to protect the lenders and borrowers can help prevent overheating.

26 Feb 2021 - 6:00PM
Macroscope | What Biden’s urgent policy priorities mean for Asia, and the world

The new US president’s focus will be on taming the pandemic at home, not rolling back Trump’s trade measures against China. But the recovery of the US economy, especially the service sector, is critical to boost the global economy.

The new US president’s focus will be on taming the pandemic at home, not rolling back Trump’s trade measures against China. But the recovery of the US economy, especially the service sector, is critical to boost the global economy.

18 Feb 2021 - 11:33AM
Macroscope | Why tech stocks and sustainable investing are good long-term bets

Over a long horizon, a contrarian investment strategy does not pay off. Instead, it is preferable to bet on trends that look set to stay, such as innovation in the technology sector and policy shifts that support carbon-neutral goals.

Over a long horizon, a contrarian investment strategy does not pay off. Instead, it is preferable to bet on trends that look set to stay, such as innovation in the technology sector and policy shifts that support carbon-neutral goals.

18 Dec 2020 - 3:57PM
Macroscope | Biden’s No 1 task: to see America through the pandemic and limit its impact on the economy

Further fiscal stimulus to support the economy must also be high on Biden’s list of priorities, given that earlier support measures have expired. A divided Congress means he must operate down the middle to gain bipartisan support.

Further fiscal stimulus to support the economy must also be high on Biden’s list of priorities, given that earlier support measures have expired. A divided Congress means he must operate down the middle to gain bipartisan support.

13 Nov 2020 - 10:32PM
Macroscope | Why Hong Kong iBonds, China government bonds offer a haven to investors seeking yields

US and European government bonds used to be an insurance policy but now investors are paying a higher price for protection that might not be as effective. Hong Kong’s inflation-linked bonds offer an alternative, while Chinese bonds are drawing international attention.

US and European government bonds used to be an insurance policy but now investors are paying a higher price for protection that might not be as effective. Hong Kong’s inflation-linked bonds offer an alternative, while Chinese bonds are drawing international attention.

9 Oct 2020 - 10:28PM
Macroscope | Why the Federal Reserve’s bid to boost US inflation is good news for Asia

Fed’s switch to allowing inflation above 2 per cent means US rates will stay lower for longer, boosting demand for higher yielding bonds, particularly in emerging markets.

Fed’s switch to allowing inflation above 2 per cent means US rates will stay lower for longer, boosting demand for higher yielding bonds, particularly in emerging markets.

4 Sep 2020 - 10:21PM
Macroscope | How governments are holding on to the fragile recovery as fresh Covid-19 infections batter economies

Recovery may be delayed but is unlikely to be derailed with more fiscal stimulus coming, low interest rates, targeted lockdowns, and businesses finding creative ways to operate.

Recovery may be delayed but is unlikely to be derailed with more fiscal stimulus coming, low interest rates, targeted lockdowns, and businesses finding creative ways to operate.

7 Aug 2020 - 10:29PM
Macroscope | How bailout debt is painting governments and central banks into a corner

Central banks, under pressure to buy assets and keep rates down to support government debt, have promised to keep it temporary to avoid the risks of inflation and capital flight. But unwinding the policy will prove very difficult.

Central banks, under pressure to buy assets and keep rates down to support government debt, have promised to keep it temporary to avoid the risks of inflation and capital flight. But unwinding the policy will prove very difficult.

10 Jul 2020 - 10:31PM
Opinion | Coronavirus lockdowns are lifting and economies are reopening, but the hard work of recovery has only just begun

Governments lifting coronavirus measures and allowing some businesses to resume operations suggests stage one of a global recovery has begun. The second stage will be more challenging with lingering economic damage and US-China trade tensions.

Governments lifting coronavirus measures and allowing some businesses to resume operations suggests stage one of a global recovery has begun. The second stage will be more challenging with lingering economic damage and US-China trade tensions.

13 Oct 2020 - 9:18PM
Macroscope | The coronavirus won’t kill globalisation, but might just change global business for the better

While companies will push to diversify supply chains and pay more attention to ESG factors, their preference for globalisation – and the profits it brings – won’t change

While companies will push to diversify supply chains and pay more attention to ESG factors, their preference for globalisation – and the profits it brings – won’t change

1 May 2020 - 10:33PM
Macroscope | Coronavirus pandemic could be an economic policy turning point, reconfiguring the public-private nexus

The zero-interest rate environment is likely to continue long after the crisis abates and government debt will balloon. Governments will have to make difficult decision on which companies to save, without upsetting the principle of market forces.

The zero-interest rate environment is likely to continue long after the crisis abates and government debt will balloon. Governments will have to make difficult decision on which companies to save, without upsetting the principle of market forces.

27 Mar 2020 - 10:23PM
Macroscope | Despite the coronavirus crisis and trade war, factories have good reasons to stay in China

The Covid-19 outbreak is holding up production in parts of China, and making relocation a more concrete possibility. However, China’s logistics infrastructure and huge consumer market give it advantages over other production locations.

The Covid-19 outbreak is holding up production in parts of China, and making relocation a more concrete possibility. However, China’s logistics infrastructure and huge consumer market give it advantages over other production locations.

21 Feb 2020 - 10:22PM
Macroscope | Markets aren’t losing any sleep over the US, Iran and oil yet – the trade war is still more of a worry

Justifiable fears about a full-scale US-Iran conflict gave markets the jitters, but they quickly calmed down. For investors, the key is to understand whether a particular event will have a sustained impact on the global economy and corporate performance.

Justifiable fears about a full-scale US-Iran conflict gave markets the jitters, but they quickly calmed down. For investors, the key is to understand whether a particular event will have a sustained impact on the global economy and corporate performance.

17 Jan 2020 - 10:31PM
Macroscope | Why the People’s Bank of China is easing monetary policy carefully, with a chisel not a sledgehammer

This month, China’s central bank cut lending rates by just 5 basis points. Unlike during previous slowdowns, the PBOC is keen to avoid flooding the economy with liquidity and starting another boom-bust cycle.

This month, China’s central bank cut lending rates by just 5 basis points. Unlike during previous slowdowns, the PBOC is keen to avoid flooding the economy with liquidity and starting another boom-bust cycle.

29 Nov 2019 - 10:23PM
Macroscope | What to expect from the 2020 US elections: more disunity, no love for China

History shows that 68 per cent of incumbent presidents get re-elected. So Donald Trump is likely to stay, the division between the House and the Senate is likely to continue, as are US-China tensions.

History shows that 68 per cent of incumbent presidents get re-elected. So Donald Trump is likely to stay, the division between the House and the Senate is likely to continue, as are US-China tensions.

23 Nov 2019 - 1:32AM
Macroscope | More policy easing won’t get the global economy out the mud – government spending might

Central banks like the Fed and ECB can hit the accelerator of policy easing all they like but the moribund global economy can only gain traction if governments start spending and geopolitical tensions ease.

Central banks like the Fed and ECB can hit the accelerator of policy easing all they like but the moribund global economy can only gain traction if governments start spending and geopolitical tensions ease.

5 Oct 2019 - 1:32AM
Macroscope | Why China’s capital liberalisation needs to be a two-way street

A greater diversity of investors minimises volatility and subjects Chinese markets to greater scrutiny, strengthening them in the long run. In return, Chinese investors with greater access to overseas markets could diversify their portfolios and bring best practices home.

A greater diversity of investors minimises volatility and subjects Chinese markets to greater scrutiny, strengthening them in the long run. In return, Chinese investors with greater access to overseas markets could diversify their portfolios and bring best practices home.

20 Sep 2019 - 10:24PM